Way-Too-Early MLB Free-Agency Predictions Post-2023 Trade Deadline
If what you want to know is where the top players on Major League Baseball's 2023-24 free-agent market will end up, the most honest answer we can give is: "Psh, danged if we know."
All we can do right now, with the Aug. 1 trade deadline still very much visible in the rearview, is make guesses that lean more toward wild than educated.
We've done so in predicting not just which teams will sign the 10 best players slated to hit the open market this winter, but what their contracts will be. We read tea leaves and considered relevant deals from recent offseasons where we could, but the truth is that this was as much an exercise in bombastic fun as anything else.
We'll start with five honorable mentions before counting down the upcoming market's top 10 free agents from lowest to highest.
Honorable Mentions
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3B/1B Jeimer Candelario: Milwaukee Brewers
Current Team: Chicago Cubs
Age: 29
2023 Stats: 106 G, 448 PA, 17 HR, 7 SB, .272 AVG, .356 OBP, .499 SLG
The Brewers rank among MLB's dregs with the rWAR they've gotten from third and first base, so it will make sense for them to get someone who can handle both corners. As to actually signing Candelario, it'll help that they have a fair deal of salary about to come off their books.
Contract: 4 Years, $60 Million
RHP Sonny Gray: Cincinnati Reds
Current Team: Minnesota Twins
Age: 33
2023 Stats: 22 GS, 124.1 IP, 110 H (5 HR), 123 K, 44 BB, 3.18 ERA
The Reds spending money? It may sound outlandish, but they darn well should be in an investing mood after what's been such an exciting season. And if they are, reuniting Gray with pitching coach Derek Johnson all over again would be a wise move.
Contract: 3 Years, $51 Million
LHP Clayton Kershaw: Retirement
Current Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 35
2023 Stats: 16 GS, 95.1 IP, 76 H (12 HR), 105 K, 24 BB, 2.55 ERA
If Kershaw chooses to come back for 2024, only the Dodgers and Texas Rangers will have any chance of signing him. But as recently as July, he didn't sound like he was leaning toward coming back at all. Dodger fans, it might be time to prepare your farewells.
LHP Jordan Montgomery: Baltimore Orioles
Current Team: Texas Rangers
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 22 GS, 127.0 IP, 122 H (13 HR), 114 K, 36 BB, 3.40 ERA
The only guaranteed salary on Baltimore's books after 2023 belongs to James McCann, and that's mostly on the New York Mets. It'll be an upset if they don't invest in pitching, and Montgomery would be a sensible target as the rock their rotation sorely needs.
Contract: 4 Years, $64 Million
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: Arizona Diamondbacks
Current Team: Detroit Tigers
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 16 GS, 94.1 IP, 77 H (8 HR), 96 K, 22 BB, 2.96 ERA
This is assuming Rodriguez opts out of his deal with the Tigers like he's expected to. He'll fit in more places besides Arizona if he does but, we just think he'd look good sandwiched in between Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.
Contract: 4 Years, $68 Million
10. RHP Marcus Stroman: San Diego Padres
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Current Team: Chicago Cubs
Age: 32
2023 Stats: 23 GS, 128.2 IP, 109 H (8 HR), 111 K, 50 BB, 3.85 ERA
It's been a steady diet of hard times for Marcus Stroman since June 25, as he put up a 9.00 ERA in seven starts before landing on the injured list with hip inflammation.
What still seem slim, however, are the odds of him exercising his $21 million option for 2024.
He was just named an All-Star for the second time in his career, after all, and his market wouldn't be held down by ties to draft-pick compensation. He's already done the qualifying offer thing and is thus ineligible to do it again.
Because his ground-ball magnetism meshes so well with their elite-tier infield defense, the Cubs would do well to pursue a new deal with Stroman if he does opt out. But if they really wanted to keep him for the long run, a new deal would already be in place.
The Padres, meanwhile, had Stroman on their radar during the 2021-22 offseason. He would be a relatively affordable replacement for Blake Snell, for whom free agency is also looming, and he wouldn't have to live with any less of an infield defense upon changing his threads.
Contract: 3 Years, $68 Million
9. RHP Lucas Giolito: Boston Red Sox
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Current Team: Los Angeles Angels
Age: 29
2023 Stats: 23 GS, 130.0 IP, 120 H (25 HR), 138 K, 46 BB, 4.36 ERA
As bad as Stroman has had it in recent weeks, Lucas Giolito hasn't had it much better.
After putting up a 3.41 ERA through his first 16 assignments, he's since been roughed up for a 6.69 ERA over seven starts. These cover outings in which he's been shelled for eight and nine runs, respectively.
And yet, this is still a 29-year-old with an All-Star nod and two top-10 Cy Young Award finishes in his history. His stuff is also still good, and it might even become great again if anyone figures out what happened to his formerly mighty changeup.
At the least, Giolito is a durable hurler who's averaging close to six innings per start. Even if the Los Angeles native doesn't stay in Southern California with the Angels or the Dodgers, he should have a broad market.
We've picked the Red Sox out of a proverbial hat because they'll have hopefully learned their lesson about how hard it is to contend with a rotation full of spare and ill-fitting parts. Giolito would fit them well as a No. 2 after budding ace Brayan Bello.
Contract: 4 Years, $76 Million
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8. LHP Julio Urías: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Current Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 26
2023 Stats: 16 GS, 86.1 IP, 82 H (16 HR), 82 K, 20 BB, 4.69 ERA
The idea of Julio Urías is suddenly a whole lot more appealing than the reality of Julio Urías.
By all rights, he should be perhaps the second-best player on the market this winter. He can claim to be a 20-game winner, an ERA champion, a Cy Young Award finalist and a World Series champ, and all before he even turned 27.
Right now, though, Urías isn't even a league-average pitcher amid a season marked by challenges aplenty. His missed about six weeks with a strained hamstring, his velocity is trending down and he's serving up home runs like never before.
Urías could even have to consider accepting if the Dodgers make him a qualifying offer, but he still has time to rescue his season and boost his stock accordingly. He's already on his way to doing so, as he's pitched at least five good innings in four of his last five starts.
Either way, it's hard to imagine him leaving Chavez Ravine. Even if they can't simply retain him via the qualifying offer, there will be that much more pressure on the Dodgers to bring Urías back if Kershaw does indeed retire.
Contract: 5 Years, $105 Million
7. RHP Aaron Nola: St. Louis Cardinals
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Current Team: Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 23 GS, 143.1 IP, 129 H (26 HR), 147 K, 34 BB, 4.58 ERA
With the boxes for Stroman, Giolito and Urías all ticked, let's conclude our tour of purported top-of-the-rotation starters having down years with Aaron Nola.
He's still gobbling up innings, but he just hasn't resembled the same guy who was a top-10 Cy Young finisher in 2018, 2020 and 2022. Notably, his three true outcome rates (i.e., strikeouts, walks and home runs) have all taken a turn for the worse from last year.
Mercifully, things could look worse under the hood. Nola's fastball velocity is basically unchanged from last year, and he still rates as one of the best command artists in the league.
It's thus hard to accuse Nola of having erred in rejecting an extension offer from the Phillies that was reportedly worth north of $100 million. There should be that much and more waiting for him on this winter's market.
If the Phillies don't bring him back, well, there's just something about Nola that screams "Cardinals pitcher!" And the Cardinals will indeed need pitchers, as Miles Mikolas will be their only rotation in member still in good standing come the winter.
Contract: 5 Years, $125 Million
6. LHP Josh Hader: Texas Rangers
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Current Team: San Diego Padres
Age: 29
2023 Stats: 43 G, 37 GF, 40.2 IP, 17 H (1 HR), 62 K, 22 BB, 0.89 ERA
Remember when Josh Hader spent close to three months out of last season pitching to a 12.00 ERA?
Weird times, to be sure, but they're ancient history by now. Hader had reclaimed his mantle as the most dominant closer in baseball by the time the Padres were advancing deep into the '22 playoffs, and he hasn't lost so much as half a step this year.
Though plenty of teams would love to have a closer like Hader, not many figure to be able to afford him. Suffice it to say that Edwin Díaz's record-busting five-year, $102 million deal from last winter bodes well for the southpaw's earning power.
We're not about to put it past the Padres to re-sign Hader, but we can also imagine president of baseball operations A.J. Preller being a little gun shy. Between Drew Pomeranz and Robert Suárez, he hasn't had good luck with big-ticket deals for free-agent relievers.
If Hader does head elsewhere, it's hard to think of a better fit than the Rangers. All the spending they've done in the last two winters has fixed many problems, save for a bullpen that's produced only 0.2 rWAR this year. It's a clear next target for the big-spending treatment.
Contract: 5 Years, $90 Million
5. CF/1B Cody Bellinger: New York Yankees
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Current Team: Chicago Cubs
Age: 28
2023 Stats: 82 G, 347 PA, 16 HR, 17 SB, .332 AVG, .383 OBP, .552 SLG
Don't call it a comeback. For Cody Bellinger, 2023 has been more like a transformation.
He's a far sight better than the oft-injured guy who managed just 1.0 rWAR across 2020 and 2022, but also nothing like the guy who slugged his way to Rookie of the Year and MVP honors in 2017 and 2019.
On the down side, he simply doesn't generate exit velocity like he used to. On the plus side, he's become an elite left-on-left hitter and he's lost nothing on defense or on the basepaths.
In an alternate universe, Bellinger might already be a Yankee right now. He was routinely linked to them in trade rumors in the run-up to the Aug. 1 deadline, only for that prospect to fizzle out when the Cubs took him off the block.
Assuming his $25 mutual option for 2024 goes kaput, the Yankees will soon have an unobstructed chance to acquire Bellinger. And they should do exactly that. Going from Harrison Bader to him in center field would not be a drastic step down defensively, which is to say nothing of what Yankee Stadium could do to reinvigorate Bellinger's power.
Contract: 8 Years, $160 Million
4. 3B Matt Chapman: Chicago Cubs
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Current Team: Toronto Blue Jays
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 111 G, 468 PA, 15 HR, 3 SB, .256 AVG, .348 OBP, .457 SLG
Matt Chapman celebrated the start of 2023 by going supernova with a 1.152 OPS through the end of April, at which time his stock was soaring.
It's obviously leveled out since then, but not so much as to ruin his chances of landing a lucrative multi-year contract. He's ultimately having his best offensive season since his initial rise to stardom in 2018 and 2019, while his defense remains firmly on the next level.
Per his 10 Defensive Runs Saved, Chapman is the best third baseman in the American League and thus on track to winning his fourth Gold Glove.
There might not be a contender with a stronger need for Chapman than the Mets. They've gotten minus-0.5 rWAR from third base, in part because it's been a defensive black hole to the tune of a minus-12 DRS.
But if it's true that 2024 will be something of a "transitory year" for the Mets, it's hard to imagine them signing anyone above 30 to a long-term deal. We're thus going to listen to our gut and put Chapman on the Cubs. They could use his right-handed stick and his glove would elevate their already vaunted infield defense into truly unrivaled territory.
Contract: 6 Years, $150 Million
3. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: New York Mets
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Current Team: Orix Buffaloes
Age: 24
2023 Stats (NPB): 16 GS, 115.0 IP, 84 H (2 HR), 121 K, 14 BB, 1.57 ERA
It's not set in stone that Orix will post Yoshinobu Yamamoto this winter, so his inclusion on this list is perhaps best taken with a grain of salt.
But as Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported in February, there is a "strong belief" among major league clubs that the young right-hander will indeed be made available this offseason. If so, the ensuing bidding war would promise to be intense.
Yamamoto's seven seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball have yielded a 1.92 ERA, and he only added to his bona fides during this year's World Baseball Classic. He struck out 12 and allowed only two runs in 7.1 innings for Samurai Japan, in the process showing off an arsenal headlined by a high-90s fastball and one of the best splitters in the world.
Among the teams known to have scouted Yamamoto are the Mets and the Red Sox. Of those two, the Mets would be especially hard to beat in a bidding war...if, that is, owner Steve Cohen is willing to open his checkbook again after this year's high-priced flop.
We're obviously willing to bet that he will be, at least for Yamamoto's sake. Because even if the game the Mets are now playing is of the long variety, there should be a place in it for a world-class pitching talent who'll only turn 25 on Aug. 17.
Contract: 7 Years, $175 Million
2. LHP Blake Snell: Los Angeles Angels
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Current Team: San Diego Padres
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 23 GS, 124.0 IP, 89 H (12 HR), 164 K, 72 BB, 2.61 ERA
Finally. A brand-name starter who isn't having a walk year to forget.
Blake Snell got off a rough start in pitching to a 5.40 ERA through May 19, but since then he's been about as hard to hit as the broadside of a needle. Though walks have continued to be an issue, we're still talking a 1.03 ERA and a 36.0 strikeout percentage over 14 starts.
Snell did something similar to round out last season, finishing with a 2.19 ERA over 14 starts. And there's obviously his 2018 season, wherein he won 21 games in tandem with a sub-2.00 ERA to capture the American League Cy Young Award.
As such, even Carlos Rodón's six-year, $162 million deal from last winter might be too light as a model for Snell's next deal.
If that proves to be too rich for the Padres, the Angels could be among the teams there to get the rebound. Because in addition to Giolito, let's just say they also stand to lose another highly valuable member of their starting rotation this winter.
Contract: 6 Years, $180 Million
1. DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Current Team: Los Angeles Angels
Age: 29
2023 Hitting Stats: 112 G, 501 PA, 40 HR, 15 SB, .308 AVG, .409 OBP, .673 SLG
2023 Pitching Stats: 21 GS, 124.2 IP, 82 H (18 HR), 160 K, 51 BB, 3.32 ERA
Even if he doesn't break Aaron Judge's single-season AL home run record, Shohei Ohtani should at least surpass him for the best walk year in MLB history.
Heck, he might even be having the best year of any kind baseball has ever seen. In addition to home runs, he also leads the majors in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS, as well as hits per nine innings on the pitching side. It's capital-B Bonkers.
Plus, the durability concerns that once loomed over Ohtani have faded. He hasn't spent a day on the IL in any of the last four seasons, a testament to how the man himself and the Angels have mastered his load management.
The question will soon be just how much Ohtani is worth on the open market. To hear it from his fellow players, something in the $500-600 million range is fair.
Of the small handful of teams that can hypothetically do a deal like that, none is in better position to actually do it than the Dodgers. Their payroll commitments are about to be more than cut in half, which is to say nothing of their ability to scratch Ohtani's worsening itch to win and the mutual admiration between himself and Mookie Betts.
Contract: 11 Years, $550 Million
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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