MLB's Potential Contract Casualties Who Could Shake up 2023-24 Free Agency
Major League Baseball's upcoming pool of free agents is on the shallow side, but it can only get deeper. Teams do have the power to create additional free agents, after all.
So, here are 10 players who will be worth looking into if they receive such treatment.
Compiling this list required scanning for guys who could hit this winter's market in one of two ways. For players who are under contract, one is by having options for 2024 declined. For arbitration-eligible players, the other is by being non-tendered.
Either way, the focus is on players who would become free agents through choices made by others. The Cody Bellingers, Marcus Stromans and Eduardo Rodriguezes of MLB are in a different boat, as they control their own fates via player options.
More will be explained as we go, and we'll count down from the least appealing to the most appealing potential free agent.
Note: Arbitration projections courtesy of Anthony Franco and Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors.
10. LHP Eric Lauer, Milwaukee Brewers
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Age: 28
2023 Stats: 10 G, 9 GS, 46.2 IP, 54 H (16 HR), 43 K, 24 BB, 6.56 ERA
2024 Status: $5.2 million projected salary
How He Could Become a Free Agent
There's no sugarcoating how rough of a year Eric Lauer just had.
He made an early trip to the injured list with a persistent shoulder issue and then went straight to the minors when that stint was up. By the time he reappeared on Sep. 30, it had been more than four months since his last appearance with the Brewers.
It's not totally out of the question that the Brewers will tender Lauer a contract for 2024, especially if they willingly open a hole in their rotation by trading 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes. Right now, though, he sure looks like a non-tender candidate.
Why He'd Be Worth a Look
To go back to the "no sugarcoating" thing for a second, it wasn't just Lauer's health and results that failed him this year. His underlying metrics were frankly awful.
And yet, this is a guy who was 17 percent better than the average pitcher as he handled 277.1 innings across 2021 and 2022. As long as it's for less than $5.2 million, he would be worth adding as a reclamation project.
9. RHP Scott Barlow, San Diego Padres
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Age: 30
2023 Stats: 63 G, 32 GF, 68.0 IP, 61 H (4 HR), 79 K, 34 BB, 4.37 ERA
2024 Status: $7.1 million projected salary
How He Could Become a Free Agent
Because the Padres stand to lose Josh Hader to free agency, they perhaps shouldn't be looking to cut any relief pitchers this winter.
Yet even if he was better for San Diego (3.07 ERA) than he was for the Kansas City Royals (5.35 ERA) before coming over in a deadline-day trade, this still wasn't a good year for Scott Barlow. Notably, both his walk rate and his fastball velocity took turns for the worse.
Even if the Padres weren't reportedly looking to cut payroll, whether a guy with these red flags is worth $7.1 million would be a fair question.
Why He'd Be Worth a Look
If nothing else, Barlow would be able to shop his track record in free agency. He was one of the best relievers around in 2021 and 2022, making 140 appearances and posting a 2.30 ERA.
And apart from his walk rate and velocity, pretty much everything else was fine for Barlow in 2023. He had all sorts of solid metrics, including average exit velocity and a hard-hit rate that both landed in the 96th percentile.
8. LHP Andrew Chafin, Milwaukee Brewers
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Age: 33
2023 Stats: 63 G, 19 GF, 51.1 IP, 45 H (6 HR), 63 K, 28 BB, 4.73 ERA
2024 Status: $7.25 million club option, $750,000 buyout
How He Could Become a Free Agent
It wasn't a small deal when the Brewers landed Andrew Chafin at the deadline. Their bullpen needed a left-handed reliever and he came with creds as one of the best.
Yet when it came time for Milwaukee to set its roster for the Wild Card Series, Chafin didn't make the cut. It wasn't terribly surprising, given that his 20 appearances had seen him put up a 5.82 ERA with too many walks and home runs and not enough strikeouts.
Though this doesn't preclude the Brewers from bringing Chafin back for 2024, by their standards $7.25 million is an expensive benefit of the doubt.
Why He'd Be Worth a Look
This wasn't one of Chafin's finer seasons, but one only needs to look back to 2021 and 2022 to find him pitching to a 2.29 ERA with 131 strikeouts over 126 innings.
Plus, the swing-and-miss was still there for the veteran southpaw in 2023. He struck out 11 batters per nine innings and his actual whiff rate was in the 87th percentile.
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7. 1B Rowdy Tellez, Milwaukee Brewers
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Age: 28
2023 Stats: 105 G, 351 PA, 13 HR, 0 SB, .215 AVG, .291 OBP, .376 SLG
2024 Status: $5.9 million projected salary
How He Could Become a Free Agent
Rowdy Tellez was already off to a rough start in 2023, with his first 79 games through July 4 yielding only a .672 OPS.
Then came injury madness. Tellez originally went on the IL on July 5 with forearm inflammation and then, just when he was ready to return, he mangled his finger while shagging fly balls. That kept him out for another month.
As Tellez never got going even after he returned on Aug. 19, it likewise wasn't surprising when he joined Chafin in being left off Milwaukee's postseason roster. If that was an easy choice, then non-tendering him to save $5.9 million may be as well.
Why He'd Be Worth a Look
That Tellez is a powerful hitter is beyond dispute. He's 6'4", 270 pounds and he came into this season off a career-high 35 home runs in 2022.
Despite his poor results, some aspects of Tellez's offensive game remained strong this year. His discipline and ability to avoid whiffs were especially so, and his 89.9 mph exit velocity was safely above the MLB average of 89.0 mph.
6. 1B Ty France, Seattle Mariners
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Age: 29
2023 Stats: 158 G, 665 PA, 12 HR, 1 SB, .250 AVG, .337 OBP, .366 SLG
2024 Status: $7.2 million projected salary
How He Could Become a Free Agent
Ty France was an All-Star and one of the Mariners' top hitters just last year, so the notion that he's a non-tender candidate might come off as ridiculous.
And yet, the offensive standards for first basemen are undeniably higher than what France produced this year. And his slide unfortunately didn't come out of the blue. Factor in his skid in the second half of 2022, and he ultimately has a .696 OPS over his last 926 plate appearances.
Those numbers ought to have the Mariners wondering if the $7.2 million France stands to make next year might be put to better use.
Why He'd Be Worth a Look
Even with that second-half slump in '22, France was still a .285 hitter and 27 percent better than average between 2020 and 2022. A pretty good hitter, in other words.
And could it be that this year's struggles were just bad luck? Expected batting metrics such as xBA, xSLG and xwOBA suggest this was indeed the case for France.
5. INF/OF Whit Merrifield, Toronto Blue Jays
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Age: 34
2023 Stats: 145 G, 592 PA, 11 HR, 26 SB, .272 AVG, .318 OBP, .382 SLG
2024 Status: $18 million mutual option, $500,000 buyout
How He Could Become a Free Agent
To put Whit Merrifield's $18 million option in proper perspective, that's almost three times as much as the $6.8 million salary he took home this year.
It would be a fair rate for the Merrifield of 2017-2021, wherein he hit .292 with averages of 30 stolen bases and 3.2 rWAR per season. He was arguably the best utility man in the league.
But these days, Merrifield is slowing down. Not so much literally as figuratively, as the last two seasons have seen him hit just .262 with 42 steals and 0.8 rWAR. It will thus be a surprise if the Blue Jays deem him worthy of such an ample raise.
Why He'd Be Worth a Look
Just because Merrifield is not good enough to be earning $18 million does not mean he's become outright bad.
He was an All-Star for the third time this year, and his speed, ability to put the ball in play and readiness to handle multiple positions are all more or less intact. He'd be a fine complementary piece for a contender in need of a right-handed bat.
4. RHP Michael Wacha, San Diego Padres
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Age: 32
2023 Stats: 24 GS, 134.1 IP, 113 H (15 HR), 124 K, 43 BB, 3.22 ERA
2024 Status: 2-year, $32 million club option, $6.5 million player option
How He Could Become a Free Agent
To clarify, Michael Wacha's contract only makes his player option a choice if the Padres first reject his club option.
It's not a given that the Padres will go that route. Wacha indeed did good work for them this year, particularly after he stumbled out of the gate with a 6.75 ERA in April.
Yet the idea is worth taking seriously because it's not certain that Wacha would get two years, $32 million if he were to become available on the open market. It is a pitching-rich market, after all, and he's more of a back-end than a front-end type.
Why He'd Be Worth a Look
To that last point, Wacha hasn't made more than 24 starts in a season since 2017 and he's averaged less than one strikeout per inning in nine of his 11 major league seasons.
All the same, he's been 27 percent better than the average pitcher in each of the last two seasons. Durability issues notwithstanding, at a certain point the results simply have to matter.
3. RHP Lance Lynn, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Age: 36
2023 Stats: 32 GS, 183.2 IP, 189 H (44 HR), 191 K, 67 BB, 5.73 ERA
2024 Status: $18 million club option, $1 million buyout
How He Could Become a Free Agent
This, too, is an iffy proposition involving an NL West team and a star pitcher's option.
One way or another, the Dodgers will face a tall order in filling out their rotation this winter. Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler will be there next year, but among the question marks after them is one concerning Clayton Kershaw's future.
Even against this backdrop, however, an $18 million salary for Lance Lynn is a reach. In no way was 2023 a good year for him, but it's especially hard to ignore all those home runs.
Why He'd Be Worth a Look
Though the caveat is that the long ball remained a problem for Lynn, he was definitely better as a Dodger (4.36 ERA) than he had been as a Chicago White Sox (6.47 ERA) before coming over in a trade.
And even if his effectiveness has waned since he was a regular in the AL Cy Young Award voting between 2019 and 2019, Lynn is still a workhorse. He tied for the league lead in pitches per start this year.
2. 1B Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
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Age: 40
2023 Stats: 65 G, 242 PA, 14 HR, 0 SB, .202 AVG, .314 OBP, .433 SLG
2024 Status: $20 million club option, $7 million buyout
How He Could Become a Free Agent
Joey Votto wants to play another year, but even he doesn't sound sure whether the Reds will pick up his option for 2024.
"Then I'll have a new experience," Votto said on the The Dan Patrick Show in reference to the possibility of the Reds declining his option. "I'll be a free agent for the first time in my professional baseball career. I don't know how excited I am about that."
Because buying out Votto would cost $7 million, the question here is whether keeping him is worth an extra $13 million for the Reds. If they value his leadership, then yes. If they only care about his results, maybe not so much.
Why He'd Be Worth a Look
Votto's track record shouldn't need any introduction, but this is only an MVP winner and six-time All-Star with a career .409 on-base percentage we're talking about.
What's more, he should be healthier in 2024 than he was this year. He returned to action less than a year after undergoing surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff and a torn biceps, so it's fair to wonder if he was ever close to 100 percent.
1. SS Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox
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Age: 30
2023 Stats: 123 G, 524 PA, 1 HR, 13 SB, .245 AVG, .286 OBP, .296 SLG
2024 Status: $14 million club option, $1 million buyout
How He Could Become a Free Agent
Would the White Sox really decline Tim Anderson's option for 2024?
It would have been unthinkable not too long ago. There are no trees that grow good shortstops, least of all two-time All-Stars and batting champions who hit .318 over a four-year period.
Yet the year Anderson is coming off was downright brutal. He just wasn't productive when he wasn't banged up, and he's not even holding on to his status as a shortstop anymore. If he's worth $14 million for anyone, it may not a White Sox franchise that's firmly in rebuilding mode.
Why He'd Be Worth a Look
This winter's market will be light on bats in general but especially where middle infielders are concerned. The best of the bunch might be Amed Rosario, who'll be coming off a rough year of his own.
As such, Anderson would at least be worth looking at as an upside play. And even if there wouldn't really be anything tangible for a team to hang its hopes on, there is the possibility that all he needs is a change of scenery.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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