B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 5
The difference between a winning week and losing week can sometimes come down to a single second, a single yard or a single point.
Or, in some instances, even less.
When you pick college football games against the spread, you know precisely what you're getting into. And in Week 4, we were a half-point away in the Troy-Western Kentucky game from being profitable.
As is, we'll settle for a "meh" 4-5 outcome. For the year, we're still a respectable 22-18. The goal is to improve upon that starting in Week 5.
Before we get to this week's picks, here's a look at what went right and wrong with the week that was.
The Good: Alabama (-7) vs. Ole Miss: The immediate death of Nick Saban's football program was greatly exaggerated, and we were all over it. Alabama beat Ole Miss by double digits, and our pockets were better for it.
The Bad: Pittsburgh (+7.5) vs. North Carolina: This one looked good for a while, and then it fell apart. Pittsburgh took the lead early in the second quarter, although the Panthers were dominated from that point forward. Whoops.
Here are this week's selections. Winners ahoy.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
Oregon State (-3.5) vs. Utah
1 of 6
The Pac-12 is going to give us brilliance for the rest of the season. It's still hard to process that the conference will implode shortly thereafter, but we'll take the brilliance where we can.
This game is a perfectly good example of just how tough it will be. Oregon State, fresh off a loss to Washington State, heads home to take on unbeaten Utah. Despite the loss, the Beavers are still a small favorite at home.
For these two programs, home field is a massive advantage. While we saw Oregon State finally fall last week, this week should be a much different outcome.
It won't be pretty or easy. A total in the mid-40s says a lot about the game we're likely to get: defense will rule. Although Utah might finally roll out quarterback Cam Rising for his first start of the year, his presence won't sway this pick one way or another.
Oregon State wins and covers at home.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
Texas Tech (-8.5) vs. Houston
2 of 6
Texas Tech has gotten off to a disastrous start to the year.
The Red Raiders are 1-3, and their sole victory came over Tarleton State. The three losses came to Wyoming, Oregon and West Virginia, and all three were rough for unique reasons. Now, starting quarterback Tyler Shough is out for the year with a broken leg.
Despite all of the bad—and there is plenty of it—Texas Tech is still nearly a double-digit favorite this weekend against Houston. The line was double digits and then it came down. We're happy right where it is.
The Cougars are 2-2, although they lost at Rice on the road and lost by more than three touchdowns against TCU. This will be Houston's second road game of the season, and a win won't come easy.
Behren Morton will step in at quarterback, which we've seen before. Results have been mixed, but his experience should be enough for Texas Tech to get back on track against a team poised to struggle against Big 12 competition.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
Auburn (+14) vs. Georgia
3 of 6
It's possible that Georgia is simply playing possum.
The Bulldogs are still overflowing with talent, and that talent will likely come together at some point. At the moment, however, it hasn't always translated against weaker competition.
Granted, the Bulldogs are 4-0. They've done exactly what need to be done against an incredibly light schedule.
They've also yet to win a game against the spread, which speaks to some of the sluggish starts Georgia has gotten off to.
Enter a road trip to Auburn, which feels a tad slippery. The Tigers finally lost against Texas A&M last week, and the offense was unable to get going on the road. Defensively, the Tigers have played tough, and a total hovering around 47 speaks to the kind of scoring—or lack thereof—we're likely to get.
Georgia wins, but it won't be as easy as many expect.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
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Notre Dame at Duke (Over 52)
4 of 6
In a weird way, Notre Dame's loss to Ohio State makes a road trip to Duke that much more compelling.
This is a competitive football game between two capable teams. We knew that Notre Dame would likely be improved thanks to the arrival of Sam Hartman. Duke, following a Week 1 win over Clemson, has catapulted into the mix.
Through four games, the Blue Devils have allowed only 35 points. However, it's worth noting that three of those opponents were Lafayette, Northwestern and UConn. (That is a polite way of questioning whether the defense will hold up against tougher competition.)
Hartman was brilliant against Ohio State, although he should be better here. He'll be countered by quarterback Riley Leonard, who has produced a handful of thrilling moments thus far.
The point spread (Notre Dame -5.5) implies that this game will be tight, and the scoreboard should be busy. Notre Dame bounces back from a crushing loss with a thrilling road win.
Notre Dame 34, Duke 31.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
Ole Miss (+2.5) vs. LSU
5 of 6
Lane Kiffin's team had no answer for Alabama after a strong start, although all hope is not lost. And this is no time to dwell on a missed opportunity.
Ole Miss heads home to take on an opponent that has played in a handful of thrillers already. Last week, LSU needed an enormous effort to outlast Arkansas at home. This week, LSU will hit the road once again to take on an offense with plenty of firepower.
That offense should find success this week. LSU is currently tied for 73rd nationally in scoring defense, and the Tigers haven't been great against the run or pass. Granted, this LSU offense can (and will) score. On the road, however, it should be a taller challenge than it has been in previous weeks.
Ole Miss will likely have greater success running the ball Saturday than it did at Alabama. Look for Quinshon Judkins to get rolling and the Rebels' offense to stay productive.
Ole Miss wins a thriller.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
Other Games on the Card
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South Alabama (+3) vs. James Madison
The records say that James Madison should cruise, but this South Alabama team can play. Look for the Jaguars to hand the Dukes their first loss of the year (and cover along the way).
Cal (-12.5) vs. Arizona State
Give Arizona State credit. The Sun Devils gave USC fits for a while last weekend, which created some late-night drama. However, that drama will end much earlier this week.
North Carolina State (+3.5) vs. Louisville
Yet another home team capable of upending an unbeaten, NC State is extremely live on a delightful Friday night tussle. Louisville's first road game of the season will have some teeth.
Iowa (-12.5) vs. Michigan State
The Iowa offense is very bad, but a night game at home can heal a lot of issues. While the Hawkeyes won't exactly thrive, they will cruise to a win by more than two touchdowns.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
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