B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 4
The vibes are simply immaculate.
We have been gifted one of the greatest Saturdays in recent memory, one week after a wild and weird batch of results. As we often do, we thrived in the weirdness.
Our weekly college football picks against the spread went 8-1 in Week 3. Yes, you read that right.
A week after a slew of bad beats and bad picks, we finally found a rhythm. For the season, even after a slow start, those picks are 18-13. Now, we have to sustain that momentum. And with no shortage of superb games to pick from, we'll look to do so in style.
Before we get to this weekend's picks, however, let's explore the good and not-so-good, which wasn't much, from the previous week.
The Good: Pretty Much Everything, But Let's Go with Ohio-Iowa State: We doubled up on this game, cashing Ohio as a 3.5-point underdog and the under at 44.5. This was the perfect kind of ugly football game we were anticipating.
The Bad: UConn (-9.5) vs. FIU: It was the only miss, although it was indeed a miss. FIU has been a spoiler a handful of times already this year, and this bet never stood a chance. Luckily, it was the only one.
With that out of the way, we're on to more winners.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
Alabama (-7) vs. Ole Miss
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The sky is falling. The ship is sinking. The dynasty is dead.
The following have been said about Alabama football over the past few weeks, and they might ultimately be true. But I'm not here to defend Nick Saban or Alabama; I'm here to win money.
Over the past two weeks, that hasn't happened to Crimson Tide backers. Alabama lost outright at home as a favorite to Texas. This past week, Saban's team struggled against South Florida as nearly a five-touchdown favorite.
Still, this feels like an ideal spot for a bounce back. Jalen Milroe will officially be Alabama's starting QB, and this is a good thing. With the offensive line struggling, expect to see the full arsenal of athletic gifts on display.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, hasn't done a ton just yet. Yes, beating Tulane was encouraging, although the Green Wave were without their starting QB for the matchup.
This bet is not a declaration that Alabama is fixed. This is simply a bet that Saban will conquer Lane Kiffin (again).
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
Texas A&M (-7.5) vs. Auburn
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We stay in the SEC, and we side with yet another favorite.
An early loss to Miami derailed the Texas A&M bandwagon, which has seen its fair share of derailments in recent years. That loss, however, did nullify progress being made on the offensive side of the ball.
The Aggies currently own the nation's No. 12-ranked offense. For comparison, they finished with the No. 101 scoring offense in the country.
It's early, and we won't get ahead of ourselves just yet. But Conner Weigman looks like a future star at QB, and he's likely to improve the more reps he gets.
Against Auburn, a team undergoing a massive renovation, years of successful recruiting should pay dividends. Hugh Freeze will eventually build a solid roster, although this game feels a little early.
For all the talk about Jimbo Fisher and his future, A&M still has a roster that can cause problems, especially at home.
Aggies by double digits.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
Middle Tennessee (-3) vs. Colorado State
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Behold the greatest hangover of the week, featuring the feisty Colorado State Rams.
With all the noise and chatter prior to the game against rival Colorado, Jay Norvell's team delivered a heroic performance as more than a three-touchdown underdog. Unfortunately, that performance ended in heartbreak.
A week later, and Colorado State must travel to Tennessee to take on a capable Middle Tennessee squad. Although the Blue Raiders are 1-2, the two losses came to Alabama and Missouri. (And the loss to the Tigers was only by four points.)
Colorado State has only played two games, and this will be the first significant travel of the year. Granted the first two games came against ranked teams, and Middle Tennessee certainly isn't that.
But timing is everything, and this timing is ideal. Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato leads Middle Tennessee to a victory (and a cover).
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
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Pittsburgh (+7.5) vs. North Carolina
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The Panthers have won a single football game this year, and that single football game was played against Wofford. The two losses came against Cincinnati and at West Virginia, and both were disappointing in unique ways.
So, why are we backing them?
For starters, this line is likely to generate a ton of North Carolina action. The Tar Heels are indeed 3-0, and quarterback Drake Maye is one of the most talented and popular players in the sport.
This season, however, Maye has struggled somewhat. And although UNC is unbeaten, beating both Appalachian State and Minnesota was not easy. For as much as Pittsburgh has struggled—and losing to this West Virginia team is not a good thing—this feels like another close, ugly-ish game for both teams.
North Carolina wins another tight one. The Panthers cover the spread.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
TCU vs. SMU (Over 64)
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While there are bigger and better matchups this weekend, this has the chance to be one of the weekend's most exciting games.
After dropping the opener to Colorado, TCU has found its rhythm. A strong 36-13 win at Houston last week is a step in the right direction, and the performance, especially on offense, should carry forward.
But SMU is no slouch, and the Mustangs should find success against a defense currently ranked outside the top 50 in scoring. SMU struggled to score points at Oklahoma this year, although the offense has been fine outside of Week 2.
The competition will once again increase, although the output should be enough. With a spread hovering around a touchdown, these two go back and forth for 60 glorious minutes.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
Other Games On the Card
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San Jose State (+4.5) vs. Air Force
Although San Jose State is 1-3, two of those losses came to Oregon State and USC. At home, against a more manageable (but still unbeaten) opponent, the Spartans keep this one tight.
Troy (-3.5) vs. Western Kentucky
Speaking of difficult schedules, enter Troy. The Trojans have lost back-to-back games, although those losses came against Kansas State and James Madison. Look for the ground game to get rolling against WKU.
Kansas (-8.5) vs. BYU
This is a delightful lane for the Jayhawks. While BYU comes off a nice win against Arkansas, Kansas is the perfect opponent to completely flip the script. This is a confident number in KU.
Marshall (-5) vs. Virginia Tech
We've made good money fading Virginia Tech this year, and we'll look to do so again. Marshall is a talented team and a good play, no matter how strange this line might appear.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
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