MLB Playoff Picture 2023: Astros vs. Mariners and Most Pivotal Series Remaining

The American League West is the center of the Major League Baseball universe right now.

The Texas Rangers, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners are separated by four games in the divisional standings.

Houston enters Tuesday with a 1.5-game lead over Seattle for the final wild-card position in the AL.

Justin Verlander led the Astros to a victory over Luis Castillo and the Mariners on Monday to create a small bit of breathing room in the standings.

Everything could change with one result in Seattle. The Astros and Mariners have two games remaining in their series and then the Rangers head to Washington for four matchups to end the regular season.

Houston will still be challenged once it leaves the pacific northwest, as it faces the Arizona Diamondbacks to close out the season.

Arizona is level with the Chicago Cubs in the National League wild-card race after it lost to the New York Yankees on Monday.

The Diamondbacks and Cubs each hold a one-game lead over the Miami Marlins, who are one of four teams on the outside of the wild-card spots who still have life in the NL.

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners

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SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - SEPTEMBER 25: Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander #35 pitches during the second inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on September 25, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

September 26-27

Houston took the first game of its three-game set in Seattle behind a tremendous eight-inning outing from Verlander.

The right-handed pitcher, who was acquired from the New York Mets at the trade deadline, showed off the version of himself that the Astros are used to seeing in September and October.

Monday's win handed the Astros a small bit of breathing room in the wild-card race against the Mariners.

Seattle needs a victory on Tuesday to prevent the gap from getting too big going into the weekend.

Houston should feel comfortable about where it is at because it has Cristian Javier and Framber Valdez throwing the next two days in Seattle.

The Astros need victories to keep pace with the Rangers, who play two more games against the Los Angeles Angels.

Texas is expected to win both contests in California, so a split series in Seattle would favor its chances of winning the AL West.

That would leave the Astros and Mariners fighting for the last AL wild-card spot unless the Toronto Blue Jays collapse down the stretch.

Toronto hosts the New York Yankees from Tuesday-Thursday. Three wins could be enough to clinch a postseason berth before the weekend.

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners

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ARLINGTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 24: Adolis Garcia #53 of the Texas Rangers runs the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Seattle Mariners during the third inning at Globe Life Field on September 24, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)

September 28-October 1

Seattle picked the wrong time to go cold.

The Mariners come into Tuesday on a four-game losing streak that began Friday in Texas.

The Rangers used their sweep of the Mariners to pull into the AL West lead, and it looks like they will not give it back.

Texas should keep its advantage with two more wins over the Angels, which sets the stage for it to clinch the AL West in Seattle. The AL West is the only division without a winner.

Texas' hot streak coincided with the returns of Josh Jung and Adolis Garcia from the 10-day injured list.

The pair of sluggers added depth to the middle of the Texas order, and they make the Rangers a formidable foe for any pitcher to face.

Seattle might be in desperation by the time Thursday rolls around. The Mariners may need to sweep the Rangers and get some help from Arizona to get into the postseason for the second consecutive year.

Texas' division-winning stakes are clear for the four-game set, but what exactly Seattle is playing for is dependent on how it finishes against the Astros.

Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks

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NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 24: Jake McCarthy #31 of the Arizona Diamondbacks scores on Geraldo Perdomo #2 sacrifice fly in the seventh inning of the game against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 24, 2023 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

September 29-October 1

The Houston-Arizona series at Chase Field could affect the wild-card races in both leagues.

Houston's position will be determined by its games on Tuesday and Wednesday in Seattle.

The Astros come into Tuesday with a 1.5-game edge on the Mariners in the wild-card race, and they are 1.5 games behind the Blue Jays for the second wild-card position.

The No. 2 wild-card spot in the AL comes with a matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, while the No. 3 wild-card position lands a team in a three-game series with the Minnesota Twins.

Houston would probably prefer to face Minnesota in a best-of-three road set, but getting into the postseason is its first goal.

Arizona carries a similar motivation into this week, as it is tied with the Chicago Cubs for the second wild-card spot in the NL.

The Diamondbacks are expected to sweep the Chicago White Sox from Tuesday to Thursday to set up a potential clinching situation at home this weekend.

Winning those games could be more difficult than expected since the Diamondbacks lost two of three to the New York Yankees in their last series.

Arizona has Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in line to pitch the first two games against Houston, who will wait until Sunday to throw Verlander again.

Arizona will have the pitching edge on Friday and Saturday, and that could help it stay ahead of the Cubs, Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds.

The DBacks need to at least finish on the same record as the Cubs since they own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Arizona may be ahead of the Cubs on record since the NL Central side finishes with Atlanta and Milwaukee.