Stock Watch on Year-One College Football Coaches
The coaching carousel moves faster than ever in 2023. Last offseason, we saw 24 new head coaching positions filled, including 11 in the Power Five.
The first year of a coach's tenure isn't always indicative of how the rest of their career at a certain school will go. But it's never too early to start checking in to see where programs are at with their new name at the top.
We're not hitting the panic button on any coaches yet, though, it's too soon for that. But let's evaluate the early results and adjust expectations for the rest of the year.
The AAC, Part I
1 of 7
Brian Newberry, Navy
It's a tough job to replace Navy's winningest head coach in school history in Ken Niumatalolo, but that's what Brian Newberry has been tasked with in 2023.
Through three weeks, the Midshipmen are 1-2, losing to Notre Dame 42-3 in Week Zero and falling 28-24 to Memphis on the road in Week 3. They got their first win of the season against Wagner on Sept. 9.
Navy has games against USF, Temple, UAB, ECU and SMU before facing Army in early December, so it could be a long year for Newberry and his team.
Stock: Down
Tom Herman, FAU
Former Houston and Texas Longhorns head coach Tom Herman is leading a much smaller program in 2023.
Through four weeks, Florida Atlantic is 1-3, with a Week 1 over Monmouth and three straight losses to Ohio, Clemson, and Illinois.
FAU deserves some credit for how it played at Illinois, though. The Owls led 10-0 after the first quarter. Although Illinois scored 24 unanswered points in the second and third quarters, FAU scored a touchdown inside five minutes to make it a one-score game.
Unfortunately, there are no moral victories in college football, but FAU played well in this one.
Still, the Owls have to play USF, UTSA, UAB, ECU and Tulane before ending the season at Rice on Nov. 25. FAU hasn't had a winning season since Lane Kiffin's 11-3 campaign in 2019. FAU might have to wait at least another year to finish at or above -.500.
Stock: Down
Eric Morris, North Texas
The Mean Green started the year 0-2, losing 58-21 against Cal at home and falling 46-39 on the road in a back-and-forth game against FIU. North Texas' first win of the season came at Louisiana Tech.
The Mean Green can win against Navy and Temple on Oct. 7 and Oct. 14, respectively. Finishing the season with a bowl bid would require three more wins, which UNT can get versus Memphis, Tulsa and either SMU or UAB.
Stock: Steady
The AAC, Part II
2 of 7
Kevin Wilson, Tulsa
Following a Week 1 42-7 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Tulsa had a tough out-of-conference schedule. In Weeks 2 and 3, it had to play Washington on the road and Oklahoma at home. Unsurprisingly, the Golden Hurricane lost by a combined 82 points.
However, Tulsa rebounded well on the road against Northern Illinois, scoring 10 unanswered points in the second half to win 22-14.
Stock: Up
Alex Golesh, USF
Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Alex Golesh is now the head coach at South Florida. The Bulls opened the season with a 41-24 loss at WKU, followed by a 38-24 win at home vs. FAMU. In Week 3, they surprised everyone against Alabama at home.
USF was tied with the Tide at three-all at halftime. Bama didn't go up by two scores until 33 seconds left in the fourth quarter thanks to a Ty Simpson one-yard touchdown run.
The Bulls' defense held Alabama to just 107 yards passing, and the Tide went 5-for-15 on third down. Sure, USF lost, but it was a heck of a performance to play that well against Alabama. The Bulls improved to 2-2 with a 42-29 win over Rice in Week 4.
Stock: Up
Biff Poggi, Charlotte
Biff Poggi may not be a household name in college football coaching, but he is quite the character. For starters, he wears cut-off T-shirts on the sidelines during games:
He has an awesome backstory. He made millions as a hedge fund manager. He coached as an assistant at his high school alma mater, Gillman School in Baltimore from 1996-2015, and didn't start coaching college until getting hired as an offensive analyst at Michigan in 2016. Following a brief return to Gillman, he spent the 2021 and 2022 seasons with the Wolverines.
The 49ers opened with a 24-3 win over South Carolina State and then fell to Maryland 38-20 despite leading 14-0 in the first quarter. Charlotte then lost 41-25 to Georgia State at home in Week 3. Charlotte did a solid job on the road against Florida in Week 4, holding Florida to just one touchdown in a 22-7 loss.
The 49ers haven't shown much yet to prove they can make a bowl, so I'm going stock down for now, although Poggi's story and persona is so likable that I hate to do it.
Stock: Down
Trent Dilfer, UAB
Speaking of untraditional hires, former Super Bowl-winning quarterback Trent Dilfer is navigating life as a college football head coach for the first time.
However, UAB is 1-3 on the season, with three straight losses to Georgia Southern, Louisiana and Georgia.
Although this game was tied 7-7 in the first quarter, Georgia pulled away in the second half, winning 49-21.
Dilfer will be looking to avoid a losing season for the Blazers for the first time since 2013. With games remaining against Tulane, South Florida, Memphis, Temple and North Texas, that may be easier said than done.
Stock: Down
C-USA and MAC
3 of 7
Jamey Chadwell, Liberty
Jamey Chadwell will be looking to replicate the success he had at Coastal Carolina, where he finished 39-22 following their move to the FBS in 2017. It looks like he's doing just that early this season, as Liberty is 4-0 through the first four weeks of the season.
The Flames opened with a 34-24 win over Bowling Green, beat New Mexico State 33-17 and took care of Buffalo 55-27. In Week 4 vs. FIU, they won 38-6.
If Chadwell can lead Liberty to a C-USA title game in its first season in the conference, that would make 2023 a huge year for Liberty in his Year 1.
Stock: Up
Lance Taylor, Western Michigan
The Broncos' 2023 season has started in less-than-ideal fashion. Through four weeks, Western Michigan is just 1-4, with a lone win over FCS St. Francis in Week 1.
Although WMU did get a tough out-of-conference slate, playing at Syracuse and at Iowa in Weeks 2 and 3, the Broncos then fell on the road to Toledo 49-31 in Week 4.
They still have to play the likes of Mississippi State, Ohio, Eastern Michigan and Bowling Green before the season ends. It looks like WMU has a real shot to miss a bowl game for a second consecutive year.
Stock: Down
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Sun Belt and Mountain West
4 of 7
G.J. Kinne, Texas State
The Bobcats got out to a hot start when they upset the Baylor Bears 42-31. It marked the first-ever win over a Power Five opponent for this Texas State program since it moved up to the FBS in 2012.
Although Texas State fell to UTSA in Week 2, it rebounded nicely with a 77-34 win over Jackson State. It then overcame a 17-0 halftime deficit to Nevada in Week 4, scoring 34 unanswered points until a late Wolfpack touchdown in the game's final minute to win 35-24.
The 3-1 start paired with the upset win over Baylor makes this a great start for Kinne.
Stock: Up
Tim Beck, Coastal Carolina
Tim Beck has some big shoes to fill in replacing Jamey Chadwell at Coastal, but the season has been a bit disappointing so far.
The Chanticleers opened with a 27-13 loss on the road to UCLA, but beat Jacksonville State and Duquesne to get to 2-1.
In a Thursday night game in Week 4, though, Coastal fell 30-17 to Georgia State at home. Coastal trailed the entire game and finished with just 107 yards rushing.
Coastal has upcoming road games against Georgia Southern and Appalachian State over the next two weeks. If the Chanticleers want to make a bowl for a third straight season, they have to turn things around over these next two games.
Stock: Down
Barry Odom, UNLV
The Rebels haven't had a winning season since 2013, but it looks like new head coach Barry Odom could change that in 2023.
UNLV is 3-1 on the season, and coming off a huge 40-37 win over Power Five Vanderbilt and a 42-28 win over UTEP in back-to-back weeks.
The Rebels fell 35-7 at No. 2 Michigan, which isn't too surprising. If UNLV can beat Hawai'i, Nevada, New Mexico and Wyoming, it will go bowling for the first time in a decade.
Stock: Up
The Big Ten
5 of 7
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
Wisconsin was a dark-horse Big Ten team thanks to the hiring of Luke Fickell from Cincinnati. Through four weeks, the Badgers are 3-1, with a 31-22 loss on the road against a talented Washington State.
Wisconsin opened Big Ten play with an impressive 38-17 win on the road against Purdue, and the rest of its schedule looks pretty favorable.
Although the Badgers do have to play Ohio State at home on Oct. 28, the toughest games include vs. Iowa on Oct. 14, at Indiana on Nov. 4 and at Minnesota on Nov. 25.
Don't be surprised if Wisconsin wins the Big Ten West in Fickell's first season in Madison.
Stock: Up
Matt Rhule, Nebraska
Nebraska has been struggling for awhile now, but former Carolina Panthers head coach Matt Rhule is hoping he can help get the team back on track in his return to the collegiate ranks.
Through four weeks, the Cornhuskers are 2-2. They lost 13-10 to Minnesota in Week 1, and fell to Deion Sanders' Colorado team 36-14. In the last two weeks, though, Nebraska has looked better, winning 35-11 against Northern Illinois and beating Louisiana Tech 28-14.
We'll see if Nebraska can keep things competitive against No. 2 Michigan in Ann Arbor next week.
Stock: Steady
Ryan Walters, Purdue
The Ryan Walters era at Purdue hasn't gotten off to a hot start. The Boilermakers are 1-3 on the season, with their only win being a 24-17 victory at Virginia Tech in Week 2.
Not to mention they have to play both Ohio State and Michigan this season. It might be a long year for Purdue fans in 2023.
Stock: Down
Pac-12, SEC
6 of 7
Deion Sanders, Colorado
Deion Sanders had an unconventional approach to building his first Colorado team, to say the least. He completely overhauled the roster, which saw 47 players enter the transfer portal, and brought the likes of Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders from Jackson State.
A complete roster strip-down-and-rebuild had never been done before in college football, so it was met with plenty of criticism and attention.
But the Colorado Buffaloes lit the college football world on fire for the first three weeks of the season. They upset TCU on the road in Week 1, and Shedeur set a school record for passing yards in a single game (510).
Colorado then beat Nebraska 36-14 in its home opener and then survived double-overtime against Colorado State, winning 43-35.
The Buffs' dream start to the season slowed down with a 42-6 loss to Oregon in Week 4, but one defeat doesn't ruin anyone's season.
The Buffs will be a team to watch in the Pac-12 this season.
Stock: Up
Troy Taylor, Stanford
New Stanford head coach Troy Taylor was seen as a great hire for the Cardinal last December. He had turned FCS program Sacramento State into a winning one, as he went 30-8 over four seasons. In 2022, his team finished 12-1.
Early on at The Farm, though, he hasn't been able to replicate that so far. The Cardinal are 1-3, with a lone win over Hawai'i in Week 1. The most eye-opening loss came in Week 3, as his former team, Sacramento State, went to Stanford and upset the Cardinal 30-23.
Through four weeks, Stanford's offense is 97th in scoring and 83rd in total offense.
Stock: Down
Kenny Dillingham, Arizona State
Kenny Dllingham, who is just 32 years old, became the youngest coach in the Power Five when he was hired by Arizona State to replace Herm Edwards.
Through four weeks, the Sun Devils are 1-4, including three straight losses to Oklahoma State, Fresno State and USC. This season might get ugly for ASU, just because of the teams it plays in the Pac-12. The rest of the slate includes games against Colorado, at Washington, Washington State, at Utah, at UCLA and Oregon at home.
Stock: Down
Hugh Freeze, Auburn
Auburn entered SEC play sitting at 3-0, getting wins over UMass, Cal, and Samford. The Tigers opened SEC play on the road against Texas A&M, but it was an unimpressive showing to start conference play.
Although Auburn trailed 6-3 at halftime, the defense gave up 21 points in the second half and lost 27-10. The offense finished with just 200 total yards and 14 first downs. Tigers quarterback Payton Thorne went just 6-for-12 for 44 yards passing, and the defense allowed 402 total yards from Conner Weigman and the Aggies offense.
If Auburn plays like this the rest of the season, things might get rough. The Tigers play No. 1 Georgia at home next week, then go on the road to No. 12 LSU on Oct. 14 following a bye, with home games against Ole Miss and Mississippi State on Oct. 21 and Oct. 28, respectively.
Auburn plays Arkansas on the road on Nov. 11 and closes out the season with Alabama at home. At this point, it's fair to question whether the Tigers will make a bowl.
Stock: Down
Zach Arnett, Mississippi State
Zach Arnett was tasked with replacing Mike Leach in Starkville after the legendary head coach died in December 2022.
The Bulldogs are 2-2 through the first four weeks, getting early wins over Southeastern Louisiana and Arizona. MSU has lost the last two straight against LSU and South Carolina.
Although Mississippi State tied the Gamecocks at 27 heading into the fourth quarter, the Bulldogs gave up 10 points early in the fourth quarter to fall behind. Through four weeks, MSU's defense is 89th in scoring defense and 98th in total defense.
The Bulldogs face Alabama next week and still have to play Arkansas, Texas A&M and Ole Miss. If they want to make a bowl this season, things have to turn around defensively.
Stock: Down
ACC, Big 12
7 of 7
Jeff Brohm, Louisville
Louisville hiring Jeff Brohm was a homecoming for the head coach after he played quarterback for the Cardinals in the early 1990s. And through four weeks, the offense is humming with his philosophy being installed.
The Cardinals are 4-0 with conference wins over Georgia Tech and Boston College already. They are averaging 43 points per game, good for ninth in the country.
Louisville quarterback Jack Plummer, who played at Purdue and Cal prior to landing with the Cardinals, has thrown for 1,120 yards and 10 touchdowns with four interceptions.
If Louisville keeps playing like this, it might just be a surprise team in the ACC.
Stock: Up
Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati
New Bearcats head coach Scott Satterfield is taking over while Cincinnati navigates its first year in the Big 12. Early results have been a mixed bag.
The Bearcats started 2-0 with wins over Eastern Kentucky and a road win over Pitt. But in Week 3, Miami of Ohio pulled off a shocking upset. The RedHawks beat Cincy 31-24 in overtime, snapping a 16-game losing streak to the Bearcats. Cincy opened Big 12 play with a 20-6 loss to No. 16 Oklahoma.
Moving to a Power Five conference isn't easy, especially for a new head coach. We'll see if Cincy can hold its own in the conference in 2023. But it can't play how it has the last two weeks if it wants to do that.
Stock: Down
Brent Key, Georgia Tech
Brent Key is another alumnus who's looking to improve things at his alma mater. He might have a leg-up on other first-year head coaches as he was Georgia Tech's interim head coach for four games last season, finishing 2-2.
Through four weeks, this looks like a much improved Tech team. The Yellow Jackets are 2-2 with wins over South Carolina State and an upset 30-16 victory at Wake Forest on Saturday. Tech quarterback Haynes King, who transferred from Texas A&M this offseason, has thrown for 1,132 yards with 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He's also added 148 rushing yards.
GT's losses came from Louisville and Ole Miss. Although Tech's defense gave up 39 and 48 points in those losses, the unit has given up an average of 14.5 points in their wins.
Stock: Up
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