Ranking MLB Wild-Card Contenders As Threats to Win the World Series
Time is running out on the regular season, but the lines to get into the 2023 MLB playoffs via wild-card berths aren't getting shorter. There are 11 teams vying for six spots.
As to which of them are actual World Series contenders, that requires closer examination.
Up ahead, you'll find the 11 clubs in wild-card contention ranked in order from the least serious to the most serious threat to bring home the Commissioner's Trophy. This covers five teams from the American League and six from the National League.
This exercise was based partly on their outlooks for getting into the playoffs, but also on what they'll bring to play with once there. If they have talent, good. If they have talent and experience, even better.
Note: Strength of schedule figures courtesy of FanGraphs.
11. San Francisco Giants
1 of 11
Record: 70-69, 2 GB in NL
Remaining SoS: .479
Those who would advise everyone not to sleep on the Giants aren't without legs to stand on.
If nothing else, their favorable remaining schedule bodes well for their chances to make the playoffs. And with a 41-40 record against winning teams, they're not to be underestimated as a potential slayer of dragons therewithin.
Further, San Francisco manager Gabe Kapler has his share of trustworthy pitchers. Starters Logan Webb and Alex Cobb have a 3.61 ERA over 331.1 innings between them, and in the bullpen are four primary relievers with a comined 2.76 ERA.
Ah, but there are always caveats. In this case, they mainly concern how the Giants pitching staff is riddled with injuries and the cold spell the offense has fallen under. It's produced only 3.3 runs per game amid a 16-28 slide since July 19.
The Giants' World Series hopes basically rest on them going on an improbable hot streak and becoming more than the sum of their parts in October. Neither inspires a ton of optimism.
10. Boston Red Sox
2 of 11
Record: 72-67, 5.0 GB in AL
Remaining SoS: .511
The Red Sox's season has mostly been an exercise in just hanging around, but even that's more than most people expected of them this year.
As to what gives them any right to not only make the playoffs but to make a run at the World Series, how about their offense? Its output has ticked up since the All-Star break, with Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Justin Turner and Adam Duvall notably combining for a .954 OPS.
In an about-face from last season, the Sox also boast a strong relief corps. Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Josh Winckowski have a 2.56 ERA between them, and Nick Pivetta has struck out 12.6 batters per nine innings in his work as a multi-inning fireman.
Yet even setting aside their deficit and their difficult remaining schedule, there are at least two good reasons to be bearish on Boston.
For one, Brayan Bello is their only reliable starter these days. For another, their defense is bad. Like, really bad. Whereas no other team has done worse than minus-25, the Red Sox are at minus-49 Outs Above Average.
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
3 of 11
Record: 71-68, 1 GB in NL WC
Remaining SoS: .499
Things were pretty brutal for the Diamondbacks between July 2 and Aug. 11, wherein they played 32 games and lost 25 of them.
Mercifully, they've stabilized their postseason push by going 14-9 since then. And on paper, at least, they resemble a team that could play spoiler against bigger fish in October.
In Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Christian Walker, Arizona's offense revolves around four hitters with 20-plus home runs. This is also the best baserunning team in MLB, which could be an ample advantage in the first postseason with the bigger bases.
On the other side of the ball, the Snakes co-lead MLB in Outs Above Average and both their rotation and their bullpen have strong anchors. For the former, it's Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. For the latter, trade newcomer Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel.
The uncomfortable question, though, is how capable the Diamondbacks are of picking on teams their own size. Their 32-46 record against winning clubs is...not great.
8. Cincinnati Reds
4 of 11
Record: 73-68, Hold NL's 3rd WC
Remaining SoS: .494
If the Reds are lacking in anything, it's experience. Both their offense and their pitching staff rank among the youngest in MLB.
Granted, this was no problem as the Reds were racking up 33 wins in 49 games between June 5 and July 31. Pretty much everything was clicking, especially including a lineup that had been hyper-charged by electrifying rookie Elly De La Cruz.
Alas, he's not the only Reds hitter who's been feeling the blues as they've produced a modest 4.3 runs per game since Aug. 1. The club's pitching has likewise hit the skids with a 5.02 ERA in this span.
It's indeed some comfort that the potential of the Reds offense remains appealing. And in rookie left-hander Andrew Abbott, who has a 3.22 ERA in 17 starts, they have at least one starter who could be an asset in October.
Yet there is no ignoring the sense that the Reds are in the post-peak phase of their season, not to mention how banged up they are. With a league-high 16 players on the injured list, they're undermanned at the worst possible time.
7. Miami Marlins
5 of 11
Record: 71-67, 0.5 GB in NL
Remaining SoS: .526
The Marlins have been as high as 14 games over .500 at multiple points throughout the season, including as recently as the final day of the first half on July 9.
But despite their current five-game win streak, they're just 18-28 since that date.
If there's one way to still see the Marlins as a threat for a deep playoff run, it involves focusing on a starting rotation that still looks good on paper. Sandy Alcantara is the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, after all, and he's not the only Marlins starter with electric stuff.
If there's another, it involves believing in Miami's offense. Josh Bell and Jake Burger have more than done their part since coming aboard at the trade deadline, and Luis Arraez, Jorge Soler and Jazz Chisholm Jr. would be a handful if they got hot at the same time.
Yet this is all strictly theoretical for now, and it's very possible there won't be a later for the Marlins. In context of their 33-43 record against winning teams, their remaining schedule looks vaguely like an insurmountable obstacle.
6. Toronto Blue Jays
6 of 11
Record: 77-62, Hold AL's 3rd WC
Remaining SoS: .512
FanGraphs still gives the Blue Jays a 3.7 percent chance of winning the World Series, a figure surpassed by only three other clubs presently in wild-card contention.
There are perspectives from which this tracks, including the one with a view of a pitching staff with an MLB-best 3.46 ERA since the break. In particular, a rotation headed by Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and either Chris Bassitt or Yusei Kikuchi is one that nobody wants to face in the playoffs.
At the same time, though, this team is simultaneously stuck in neutral and at less than full strength.
Though the Blue Jays are a season-high 15 games over .500, they're only 18-16 since July 30 and their offense has lost Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman and Danny Jansen to the injured list just in the last couple of days.
Even if all three get healthy in time for the playoffs, Toronto's offense will still be less than a sure thing. As stacked as it is on paper, it isn't even in the top half of the AL in scoring.
5. Chicago Cubs
7 of 11
Record: 75-64, Hold NL's 2nd WC
Remaining SoS: .475
The hard part is over for the Cubs, at least where their remaining schedule is concerned. Only two teams have softer landings than theirs.
Not that they really need it, though. Because as you may have noticed, this is a hot team.
The Cubs have won 32 out of 46 since July 18, in part because their offense trails only Atlanta with 275 runs in this span. Cody Bellinger has rightfully gotten a ton of attention, but he's but one among many warm regulars in Chicago's lineup right now.
Despite Marcus Stroman's absence with a rib injury, the pitching is likewise going strong. Justin Steele's ERA has yet to go over 3.00 at any point this year, and Kyle Hendricks and Javier Assad have supported him well in the rotation in the second half.
It further looks good at the Cubs are a strong defensive team with a capable trio of late-inning relievers in Adbert Alzolay, Mark Leiter Jr. and Julian Merryweather. If it wasn't for their pedestrian 47-46 record outside the NL Central, there'd be nothing not to like.
4. Texas Rangers
8 of 11
Record: 76-62, 0.5 GB in AL WC
Remaining SoS: .514
The Rangers have held at least a share of first place in the AL West for all but 12 days throughout the year. Unfortunately, these are also the last 12 days of the year.
Losses in 14 out of 18 will do that. Much has gone wrong for the Rangers, including a sudden offensive funk that's yielded only 3.8 runs per game.
Yet it seems silly to push the panic button. Josh Jung (thumb surgery) is missed at third base, but this is the otherwise the same offense that leads the American League in scoring. Rest assured nobody wants to face it in October.
Likewise, it'll be hard for teams to match up against some combination of Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jordan Montgomery, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning. It's thanks to them that Texas starters lead the majors in fWAR since the beginning of August.
The less-than-subtle question mark in Texas concerns the bullpen, which has been a dastardly thorn in manager Bruce Bochy's side all season. Frankly, the only hope there is for a 2022 Phillies-style turnaround in the nick of time.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
9 of 11
Record: 84-55, Hold AL's 1st WC
Remaining SoS: .523
Despite their difficult remaining schedule, it's hard to imagine the Rays falling out of the American League playoff picture. Especially not while they're playing pretty good baseball.
Though they're only 55-48 since starting out at 29-7, they've won 15 of their last 22 games. Their offense has put up 6.4 runs per game in this span, a nice reminder that they rank behind only the Rangers among AL teams in scoring.
Meanwhile, Rays pitchers rank first in the league in fWAR since Aug. 1. Chalk that up to strong work from starters Zach Eflin, Tyler Glasnow and Aaron Civale, as well as a bullpen loaded with swing-and-miss stuff.
Yet between Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs and Jason Adam, it's just as easy to notice who's not pitching because of injuries. It's likewise easy to notice that the club's recent offensive feasting has mostly been at the expense of non-contenders.
This is not to be mistaken for a burial of the Rays, especially knowing they have an avenue to host an opening series at Tropicana Field, where they're an AL-best 46-24. But compared to earlier in the year, there's more room for doubt these days.
2. Seattle Mariners
10 of 11
Record: 77-61, Hold AL's 2nd WC
Remaining SoS: .519
You only have to go back to July 24 to find the last time the Mariners were merely a .500 team. They had an 11.6 percent chance to make the playoffs. It was grim.
Cut to now, where they're 26-9 since then and among the favorites to win the whole thing.
It would smack of recency bias if the run the Mariners were on doing didn't feel inevitable. The talent was there all along, and nowhere more clearly than on the mound. Sure enough, that's where Seattle is tied for second in MLB with a 3.49 ERA since July 25.
Seattle's offense can likewise lay claim to the best of MLB since that date, at least where wRC+ is concerned. This is likely the more unsustainable performance, but there are worse ideas than having faith in the hot hands belonging to Julio Rodríguez, Teoscar Hernández, Ty France and Cal Raleigh.
Harder to measure is how hungry the Mariners are, but they don't seem to still be full on last year's playoff run. Just ask the team who ended said run, who've dropped eight of 10 to Seattle this year.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
11 of 11
Record: 76-62, Hold NL's 1st WC
Remaining SoS: .536
The Phillies are going to face some trials the rest of the way, most notably seven games against an Atlanta squad that leads the NL East and generally seems unbeatable.
Then again, the Phillies have held their own at 41-41 against teams with winning records and are on a sustained warm stretch with 51 wins in their last 81 games.
It took a while, but the Phillies' offense has finally been living up to its billing since the All-Star break. Only two teams have clubbed more home runs, with 42 of the Phillies' 83 since the break coming just from Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and an alive-and-well Trea Turner.
The arms, also, are doing well with a 3.94 ERA in the second half. Zack Wheeler is once again playing his part as the club's No. 1 starter, but much of this recent success is actually owed to a relief corps with a 3.58 ERA since the break.
And lest anyone forget, this team has been there and done that. And nobody should be forgetting that, as it was only last year that the Phillies parlayed a wild-card berth into an appearance in the Fall Classic.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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