Realistic Upsets That Would Send the 2023 CFB Season into Chaos
Every college football game has value, but a particular sequence of results could unleash a chaotic 2023 season right away.
Duke notched the first big upset, taking down Clemson on Labor Day. Seven more Top 15 teams have an intriguing game against a quality—and dangerous—opponent in the opening month. The higher-ranked program is often on the road in these matchups, too.
And those contests, altogether, create a fascinating "what if" scenario.
While the potential upsets are subjective, none would be a jaw-dropping outcome. For example, we're not picking Ball State to beat Georgia for the sake of utter pandemonium. If that happens, all right! However, the intent is to stay as reasonable as possible.
Sep. 9: Texas at Alabama
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The resulting storylines of a Texas victory are already clear.
From the Longhorns' perspective, taking down Alabama would only intensify their College Football Playoff dreams. We've become accustomed to seeing Texas not match preseason hype, but winning in Tuscaloosa can quickly shape an optimistic narrative for 2023.
Bama, meanwhile, would lose its margin for error immediately. No two-loss team has ever reached the CFP, so nothing less than unbeaten finish would save the Crimson Tide, who haven't made the playoff since 2020.
Perhaps there's an easier way to explain all that.
Just imagine "Texas is back" and "Alabama's dynasty is officially over" headlines at the same time. That, my friends, is chaos.
Sep. 9: Oregon at Texas Tech
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Given that Wyoming just defeated Texas Tech, the idea of Oregon dropping this contest might seem laughable.
Be careful to not underestimate a road game in college football, though.
Texas Tech certainly wants to avoid an 0-2 start, and taking down Oregon is a great way to reclaim respectability. But the Red Raiders aren't likely to parlay an upset into a sudden 11-win surge, either.
The latter point is important here because Oregon has that CFP upside. But if the Ducks already have a loss before conference play arrives, they won't be expected to perfectly navigate a Pac-12 slate that includes Washington, Utah, USC and Oregon State.
And, again, two losses is the quickest way to miss the playoff.
Sep. 16: LSU at Mississippi State
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LSU already fell to Florida State, yes. However, we just watched the Tigers win the SEC West title in 2022, and they returned a large majority of that roster. This is still a very talented team.
Maybe you can catch them early, though.
Mississippi State hosts LSU in Week 3, and that dreaded second loss would be crushing to the Tigers' biggest hope of a national championship. Similar to Texas Tech, however, Mississippi State isn't viewed as more than a spoiler—a role the Bayou Bengals would immediately inherit.
They could hand Arkansas its first loss, and they're the final opponent of a September gauntlet for Ole Miss. And then, LSU could again toss the dagger into Alabama's dreams in November.
Texas beating Alabama and LSU quickly losing a second game would be a season-defining combo for the SEC.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Sep. 16: Penn State at Illinois
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The trend continues with Illinois.
Even in a best-case scenario, the Fighting Illini probably aren't a national threat. Nevertheless, they can throw a fun twist in the Big Ten picture with a mid-September win over Penn State.
The aftermath for Penn State matches Alabama, Oregon and LSU: To make the CFP, you can't lose another game. Staying in the playoff conversation would require sweeping Ohio State and Michigan, something the Nittany Lions haven't done since 2008.
But this hypothetical isn't all negative for them.
Let's say Notre Dame defeats Ohio State—more on that shortly—and Penn State falls to the Buckeyes but topples U-M. That realistic sequence (all wins by the hosts) would mean the Big Ten has no unbeaten teams, so a second straight year of two CFP representatives would be unlikely.
Sep. 23: Ohio State at Notre Dame
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It is really tempting to overreact in the opening weeks of the season. Among the easy options in 2023, we have Notre Dame's excellent start with Sam Hartman at quarterback and Ohio State's lackluster debut.
Oh, and they're set to meet in Week 4.
Notre Dame entered the season as a fringe contender, but it would be impossible to overlook the Irish if they knock off OSU.
Beyond shaking up the Top 25, though, Notre Dame earning a win would create a stir in Columbus. Ohio State coach Ryan Day isn't on a serious hot seat, but a loss to ND with Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan still to come would heighten the pressure on the Buckeyes in 2023.
Sep. 29: Utah at Oregon State
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Are you hopping aboard the Oregon State bandwagon?
Sure, it was only San Jose State. In his team debut, though, quarterback DJ Uiagalelei accounted for 249 yards and five touchdowns to propel the Beavers in a 42-17 win.
All offseason, the question for Oregon State was whether the Clemson transfer could recapture the flashes he showed as a temporary replacement for Trevor Lawrence in 2020. If the answer is yes, the Beavers can compete with USC, Washington, Oregon and Utah in a fascinating Pac-12 race.
So far, so good.
The last Friday of September brings the first head-to-head matchup within that quintet. The potentially upstart Beavers have a chance to announce their presence against the two-time reigning Pac-12 champs.
Sep. 30: USC at Colorado
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Speaking of bandwagons, here's Colorado. It's fair to say the Buffaloes' following is a bit larger after Week 1.
And if you want chaos, there's no better option.
What could possibly create more mayhem than Colorado—in its first season under Deion Sanders—stunning Lincoln Riley-led USC with reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams at the helm?
Your phone may explode from the hot takes. Coach Prime might levitate straight out of Folsom Field in Boulder.
As if Colorado edging TCU didn't cause enough of a national frenzy, an upset of the Trojans would disrupt the entire sport.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
