Realistic Expectations for Brock Purdy, Kenny Pickett, More 2nd-Year NFL QBs in 2023
The 2022 NFL draft quarterback crop was one of the least hyped groups in recent memory. The NFL agreed, only making one of them a first-round pick.
Despite the lack of love, the class still wound up with two quarterbacks that made significant contributions courtesy of Kenny Pickett and Brock Purdy.
Purdy wound up going from Mr. Irrelevant to an NFC Championship Game, taking advantage of the opportunity to start for the 49ers. He was one of the most unlikely success stories in the leagues last season and will look for an encore performance in 2023.
Pickett ended up taking over as the starter for a franchise in the Pittsburgh Steelers that has been defined by one quarterback for nearly two decades.
The class still has a lot to prove but it should have four quarterbacks who wind up as starters for their prospective teams. Here, we'll take a look at what the realistic expectation should be for those quarterbacks as they go into their second season based on what they've shown so far, expected progress and supporting cast.
Not Expected to Start
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For one reason or another each of these 2022 picks are notable but aren't expected to start this season.
Malik Willis, Tennessee Titans
Willis was one of the most intriguing prospects in the 2022 class. His athleticism combined with a rocket arm made him the ultimate toolsy project. But he fell to the third round and wasn't great when called upon. He threw zero touchdowns to three interceptions while going 1-2 as the starter.
Now he's going to have a hard time even hanging onto the backup job. The Titans trading up to draft Will Levis in the second round was not a vote of confidence for Willis. Ryan Tannehill may have praised Willis' work this offseason but his path to playing time is narrow.
Bailey Zappe, New England Patriots
If Mac Jones doesn't immediately take off in Bill O'Brien's offense, Bailey Zappe is going to be a very popular guy in Boston. Jones was benched for the fourth-round pick last season and Zappe responded with five touchdowns to three interceptions while going 2-0 as the starter.
Zappe didn't make a lot of jaw-dropping throws or anything. Only two of his completions were deemed "money throws" by Player Profiler's data, but he proved to be a reliable backup. Realistically, that should be the expectation for him until we see him in a larger sample size.
Brock Purdy
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Brock Purdy is one of the top X-factors for the entire 2023 season. It's a nearly unprecedented situation for a player like Purdy to come in as the last pick in the draft and play the way he did.
There are a lot of stats to throw out surrounding Purdy's takeover of the 49ers quarterback position but the most all-encompassing might be the fact that he would have ranked fifth in Total QBR if he would have qualified.
Only Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts had higher scores than Purdy's 65.6 across five starts at the end of the season.
It was a magical run that included a 7-1 record as the starter and he didn't finish the only loss because he suffered an elbow injury that makes projecting next season even harder.
On one hand, Purdy proved capable of running Kyle Shanahan's offense with efficiency and he has one of the best supporting casts in the league. On the other, his recovery timetable appears to be running right up against training camp and even the best rookie quarterback can fall into a sophomore slump.
Realistically, Purdy is going to have to deal with defenses now having eight games worth of film to study. The former Iowa State star "remains on track to be ready for the 2023 season," per Tom Pelissero of NFL Network, but still recovering during training camp could mean a slow start.
Expecting Purdy to be among the league leaders in QBR is a bit much. There's likely to be some struggles baked into his stats while he still proves that he's capable of being the future for the Niners.
Projected Stat Line: 309/475, 3,855 yards, 25 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 55 rushing yards
Kenny Pickett
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As the only quarterback taken in the first round of the 2022 draft, no one has more pressure to live up to expectations in Year 2 than Kenny Pickett.
The Steelers were able to get the Pitt alum with the 20th pick of last year's draft, and he didn't exactly light up the league as a rookie. He threw more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (7) and went 7-5 as the starter.
But that doesn't tell the whole story. Seven of Pickett's nine interceptions came in his first four starts. Once he got his feet underneath him, he finished the season with two interceptions in his final seven starts.
Pickett also proved to be a gamer. Good quarterbacks do their best work in clutch situations. That he led three fourth-quarter comebacks and three game-winning drives is a positive sign that he can become "that guy" for the Steelers.
Realistic expectations should expect a big step up for Pickett. The offensive line should be better with first-round pick Broderick Jones taking over at left tackle and Isaac Seumalo coming in via free agency.
If Allen Robinson II can find his footing, it will give Pickett a trio of productive receivers and an ascending pass-catching tight end.
The Steelers should expect much more production from Pickett in Year 2 while still delivering in the clutch.
Projected Stat Line: 350/510, 3,468 yards, 20 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 315 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns
Desmond Ridder
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Of all the quarterbacks who fell in the draft last year, Desmond Ridder was the most surprising. The Cincinnati signal-caller was the No. 1 quarterback and No. 17 overall player on our big board heading into the draft.
He ended up falling all the way to No. 74 in the third round where the Falcons added him to the roster. He mostly sat behind Marcus Mariota but did start the final four games of the season going 2-2 as the starter with two touchdown passes and no interceptions.
Those modest numbers are a product of a run-heavy system that's going to offer some protection. It's also not changing now that they've used a top-ten pick on Bijan Robinson.
The Falcons had opportunities to bring in other quarterbacks this offseason but they opted not to and appear to be bought in on Ridder.
"We have thrown a lot at him," head coach Arthur Smith said, per Josh Kendall of The Athletic. "There are certainly things we continue to harp on and will continue to evolve, but you have seen a lot of daily improvement, very pleased with the progress he has made day in and day out."
That shows a lot of confidence in what they see from Ridder.
Smith and his staff are going to put Ridder in a position to accentuate his strengths while minimizing risks. It's a tryout year for the third round pick to show there's a foundation to build on.
Projected Stat Line: 272/425, 3,015 yards, 16 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 265 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns
Sam Howell
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Unlike Brock Purdy and Kenny Pickett, we have very little evidence—good or bad—of what Sam Howell will look like for the Washington Commanders. The fifth-round pick started the final game of the season, going 11-for-19 for 169 yards with a touchdown and interception while adding 35 yards and a score on the ground.
For what it's worth, the Commanders won 26-6.
What we do know is that Howell will have some tools to work with. Terry McLaurin is a bonafide No. 1 receiver, Jahan Dotson has a chance to make big strides in Year 2 and Curtis Samuel can be an electric playmaker in the open field.
Eric Bieniemy will be looking to prove something after his stint as the offensive coordinator with the Chiefs. The infrastructure is in place for a quarterback to prove himself.
In his scouting report of Howell for B/R, Nate Tice noted that Howell has the arm strength, athleticism and accuracy to make it in the league but he would need a lot of development and coaching.
Howell is going to have some great moments. His rushing ability stood out at North Carolina and his tools generated some first-round hype before his final college season.
But there's also going to be some ugly moments. Howell ended up as a fifth-round pick for a reason. He's going to remind fans of both sides of the coin as he adjusts to life as an NFL starter.
Projected Statline: 280/450, 3,277 yards, 15 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 375 yards rushing, four rushing touchdowns
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