1 Prediction for Every Team During 2023 NBA Free Agency
Now that the NBA draft is done, the offseason is in full swing.
We've already had a few moves, including the Bradley Beal blockbuster, but the league surely has more to satisfy our summer basketball fix.
Whether through trades or free agency, most of the Association's 30 teams are on the verge of changing their rosters. Some will mostly stand pat, while others will tweak. A few might even engineer a total overhaul.
Before we consume the 2023 offseason, scroll below for a prediction for each of the league's organizations.
Atlanta Hawks
1 of 30
John Collins Finally Gets Traded
Now that Bradley Beal is on his way to the Phoenix Suns, John Collins might be the new leader in the clubhouse for the unofficial "oft-rumored but never traded" honor.
He won't get to keep that title long, though (if my prognostication prowess is strong), as the Atlanta Hawks will finally move him this summer.
Over a four-season stretch from 2018-19 to 2021-22, Collins averaged 18.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.2 threes and 1.0 blocks in 30.6 minutes, while shooting 37.9 percent from deep.
Then, his production plummeted to 13.1 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.0 threes with a 29.2 three-point percentage as he took a lesser role and made way for Dejounte Murray in 2022-23.
That dip may have suppressed his trade value a bit, but some front offices will remember the previous version of Collins and be willing to move a more defensive-minded player for him.
Boston Celtics
2 of 30
Boston's Big Moves are Done
Prior to the Boston Celtics' acquisition of Kristaps Porziņģis (and loss of Marcus Smart), much of the chatter around this team focused on Jaylen Brown and Malcolm Brogdon.
Most reporting on the former suggests he won't be moved.
On Monday, the Boston Globe's Adam Himmelsbach wrote: "Jaylen Brown remains an essential part of that picture. The source said the Celtics do not intend to trade the All-Star forward, and that all signs continue to point toward Brown signing a five-year, $295 million super-max extension this summer."
And following Smart's departure, earlier suggestions that Brogdon might be moved suddenly feel outdated too.
Boston now needs Brogdon to play more point guard, something he demonstrated he can do with the Indiana Pacers.
During his three seasons there, he averaged 18.9 points and 6.3 assists in 32.9 minutes.
Brooklyn Nets
3 of 30
Brooklyn Adds a Big
Nicolas Claxton had a breakout season with 12.6 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in just 29.9 minutes. He also shot 70.5 percent from the field.
He's not exactly a bruising big, though, and the Brooklyn Nets could use more size inside, particularly in a matchup against someone like division foe Joel Embiid.
The problem is that re-signing Cameron Johnson (or matching whatever offer sheet he might get) will put the Nets in range of the luxury tax. And this team doesn't scream "worthy of paying the tax."
Perhaps there's some team out there that convinces itself that it can coax the All-Star version of Ben Simmons back to life and might be willing to offer a rotation-level big to get that opportunity.
Charlotte Hornets
4 of 30
Charlotte Re-Signs Miles Bridges
Recent reporting from ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo suggests the Charlotte Hornets are interested in re-signing Miles Bridges, who is a restricted free agent this summer. Shortly after that tidbit, the suspended forward tweeted, "Back soon."
Bridges still has 10 games of a 30-game suspension to serve following an investigation into domestic violence allegations. He was accused of assaulting the mother of his two children in 2022, and he pleaded no contest in November to a felony domestic violence charge of injuring a child's parent.
From a strictly on-court perspective, though, his finishing ability and chemistry with rising star LaMelo Ball makes Charlotte significantly better.
Chicago Bulls
5 of 30
Chicago Re-Signs Nikola Vučević
The Chicago Bulls have been thoroughly mediocre over the last two seasons, and they were flat-out bad before that.
So, running it back might not make a ton of sense.
However, letting Nikola Vučević walk for nothing doesn't exactly kick-start a rebuild, either. Even without whatever his next salary is, the Bulls will be threatening 2023-24's projected salary cap of $134 million.
The smart move is probably to sign the big man to a reasonable contract ahead of his age-33 campaign and hope for the best.
If the Bulls are toiling away around .500 again in February, they can shop some combination of Vučević, Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan.
Cleveland Cavaliers
6 of 30
Cleveland Adds a Wing
Because the Cleveland Cavaliers are bringing back most of a core that won 51 games and have talent at about every position, it's tough to manufacture a non-generic prediction.
They do have at least one clear need, though: A more reliable option to start at the 3.
If they re-sign Caris LeVert and go over the cap, they'd have access to the mid-level exception that can pay in the neighborhood of $11.4 million. A veteran intrigued by last season's success might be willing to take that deal.
Another route could be shopping Jarrett Allen and his $20 million contract for a wing and moving Evan Mobley to the 5.
However they do it, Cleveland will find a way to bolster its depth at the 3.
Dallas Mavericks
7 of 30
Dallas Re-Signs Kyrie Irving
There has been plenty of chatter on the possibility of Kyrie Irving joining the Los Angeles Lakers. There could be other suitors who come calling in July, too.
However, no team offers a better combination of talent and incentives than the Dallas Mavericks.
When they acquired Kyrie, they also got his Bird rights. Dallas can offer five years and $272.9 million. No other team can go north of four years and $201.7 million.
That difference in money and the budding chemistry between Irving and Luka Dončić is going to be enough to keep the eight-time All-Star in Dallas.
Denver Nuggets
8 of 30
Bruce Brown Re-Signs (or Picks Up His Option)
This is one of the bigger stretches of the slideshow.
Bruce Brown was one of last summer's biggest steals. He played for the Denver Nuggets for $6.5 million this season, and he has a player option for $6.8 million in 2023-24.
Even signing a mid-level exception would almost double that salary, and Brown looked worthy of more than that during Denver's championship run.
If he opts out, the most he can re-sign for with the Nuggets is $7.8 million (thanks to his signing the mini-mid-level exception last summer and the team carrying his non-Bird rights).
However, if all those numbers were going to keep Brown from coming back, why would he do this at the championship parade?
In addition to his very public "One more year?" tease, he also told the Denver Post's Mike Singer that "money is not everything" in the immediate aftermath of winning a championship.
If Brown stays in Denver, it'll be the ultimate nod to the culture that's been established there. And this prediction is essentially a bet on that culture.
Detroit Pistons
9 of 30
Detroit Picks Up Alec Burks' Team Option
This one may not be super-exciting, but sometimes you have to take the gimmes.
Nothing is a given in the NBA, but HoopsHype's Michael Scotto wrote: "The Pistons are expected to pick up the $10.5 million team option on Alec Burks. There were a lot of teams calling about him that were playoff-caliber teams."
The second half of that quote is understandable. The Detroit Pistons were a bottom-tier team all season, and Burks has averaged 13.0 points, 2.6 assists and 1.9 threes in 26.1 minutes, while shooting 40.3 percent from three over the last four seasons.
Detroit will pick up that option for a couple of potential reasons. He'll either add credibility to the Pistons rebuild, or he'll play well enough to be traded for an asset before the deadline.
Golden State Warriors
10 of 30
Golden State Re-Signs Draymond Green
Draymond Green's infamous punch of Jordan Poole prior to the 2022-23 campaign hung over the Golden State Warriors like a storm cloud all season.
Coach Steve Kerr acknowledged that during his exit interview with the media following his team's second-round loss.
Now that Poole is a Washington Wizard, though, thanks to a trade that lands Chris Paul in Golden State, re-signing Draymond seems a lot more likely.
The luxury-tax implications of that decision would be massive, but so would the loss of Green. He's won four titles with the Warriors.
And over the course of his career, Golden State is plus-13.7 points per 100 possessions when Stephen Curry plays with Green and plus-6.1 when Curry plays without him.
Houston Rockets
11 of 30
Rockets Don't Add a Veteran Star
The Houston Rockets have been linked to at least two potential veteran additions over the last several months, including James Harden and Jaylen Brown.
But recent momentum in reporting seems to suggest Harden will re-sign with the Philadelphia 76ers, and Brown won't be traded by the Celtics.
Both developments shouldn't be seen as the end of the world by Rockets fans. With Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Şengün in place, Houston has one of the game's most intriguing young cores.
Patience with their group-wide development is fine.
Indiana Pacers
12 of 30
Myles Turner Gets Traded
Myles Turner had the best offensive season of his career in 2022-23, when he put up career highs in points (18.0) and threes per game (1.5), effective field-goal percentage (61.2) and offensive box plus/minus (1.4).
And this summer, the Indiana Pacers should cash in on his improved trade value and move the 27-year-old for pieces that better fit the timeline of a rebuilding team.
Turner is on the verge of his prime, has a reasonable salary of $21 million in 2023-24 (that actually declines the next season) and can effectively protect the rim and space the floor on the other end.
Some contender (or borderline contender) will pay up for his versatility.
Los Angeles Clippers
13 of 30
Clippers Don't Re-Sign Russell Westbrook
The Los Angeles Clippers were reportedly in pursuit of Chris Paul, which suggests they weren't all that high on retaining Russell Westbrook.
And even without CP3, the most it can offer Westbrook for a starting salary is $3.8 million. Though he's entering his age-35 season and has been a journeyman over the last several years, he likely did enough in the postseason to warrant a bigger payday from someone else.
In the postseason, when he took over most of the Clippers' offensive responsibility following an injury to Kawhi Leonard, Westbrook averaged 23.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 2.0 threes, 1.4 blocks and 1.2 steals.
Los Angeles Lakers
14 of 30
Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves Stay in Los Angeles
In this slideshow's universe, Kyrie Irving is staying in Dallas, which means the Los Angeles Lakers should prioritize continuity.
Few teams have engineered a midseason turnaround quite as dramatic as L.A., which started 2-10 and somehow managed to make the conference finals.
Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves were instrumental in the late push and postseason success, and the Lakers shouldn't stray from the formula of which they're a part.
The shooting of both helps keep the floor spaced for LeBron James' drives and Anthony Davis' work inside. And Reaves showed enough as a playmaker to earn LeBron's trust in key playoff moments.
With both entering restricted free agency, the Lakers will have the option to match any offer sheets they sign. Assuming the deals aren't absurd, matching is indeed what the Lakers should do.
Memphis Grizzlies
15 of 30
Grizzlies Stand Pat
Like Boston, the Memphis Grizzlies have probably already taken their big swing of the offseason.
With Ja Morant out for the first 25 games of the season because of a league-imposed suspension, Marcus Smart will enter as the team's starting point guard. And he can easily slide down a spot when Morant returns or come off the bench if Memphis doesn't want to go too small.
The price the Grizzlies paid to acquire Smart is a bit of a head-scratcher, but this is a culture move for a team that desperately needed one.
Miami Heat
16 of 30
Heat Don't Trade for Damian Lillard
Predicting that something won't happen is never as fun as the opposite, but the Miami Heat are reportedly after Damian Lillard, who will still be a Portland Trail Blazer next season.
Tempting as a full-scale rebuild sounds for those of us outside the organization, the idea of trading the greatest player in franchise history the summer after he averaged a career-high 31.9 points ignores the human element of the league.
Portland and Lillard are bonded together in a way almost no other stars and cities in today's game are. And his 2022-23 numbers indicate he still has something in the tank.
The more rational approach may be selling high and getting an instant rebuild package in exchange for the 32-year-old, but the Blazers are going to follow their hearts this summer.
Milwaukee Bucks
17 of 30
Milwaukee Keeps Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton
The top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks' first-round loss to the Miami Heat was a disappointment big enough to open the doors for a roster shakeup. They were reportedly in on the Bradley Beal sweepstakes before the Phoenix Suns ended that.
And they could be players for other options in the coming weeks.
But Milwaukee can pretty reasonably attribute this postseason's failures to poor health.
Giannis Antetokounmpo missed two games of the Bucks' five-game series loss, and Khris Middleton spent much of the season on injured reserve.
But when those two have been on the floor with Jrue Holiday over the last three regular and postseasons, Milwaukee is plus-11.8 points per 100 possessions.
Keeping that together feels like the safest approach. And though Middleton declined his player option, the Bucks have his Bird rights and a "return to the Bucks on a new deal remains a possibility," according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
Minnesota Timberwolves
18 of 30
Minnesota Re-Signs Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Jaden McDaniels' broken hand severely hindered the Minnesota Timberwolves' first-round chances against the Denver Nuggets, but it also gave Nickeil Alexander-Walker a chance to start and show off some pesky defense against Jamal Murray.
The sample size is too small for sweeping takeaways, but Minnesota was plus-1.0 points per 100 possessions with Alexander-Walker on the floor that series, compared to minus-24.4 with him off.
A 38.4 three-point percentage in the regular season suggests he can contribute on the offensive end now, too.
For a team that will have well over $100 million per year committed to Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards after the 2024 offseason (barring a trade), retaining young talent and restricted free agents will be crucial. And Minnesota will do just that with Alexander-Walker.
New Orleans Pelicans
19 of 30
New Orleans Trades One of Its $30 Million Men
When you include their team options and partially guaranteed salaries (some of which are attached to important role players), the New Orleans Pelicans are seriously threatening the luxury tax line.
And significant raises are likely heading to Trey Murphy III and Herbert Jones over the next couple years.
The cap situation may become untenable, in large part because Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum are all guaranteed over $30 million per year.
Given the durability issues for both Williamson and Ingram, that's a huge price to pay.
New Orleans has already been linked to potential trades for Scoot Henderson, so it's safe to say some difficult conversations have been had in that front office.
Before training camp ends, one of those conversations will lead to a trade that brings a little economic relief (now or in the future).
New York Knicks
20 of 30
Knicks Trade Evan Fournier
This is another one that feels fairly obvious, but again, nothing is guaranteed in the NBA.
Many thought Evan Fournier might be traded ahead of the 2023 deadline, but he remained a New York Knick through their second-round loss to the Miami Heat.
This summer, though, they'll actually make the move.
Fournier's contract ends in 2025, but that last season is a team option. It's essentially an expiring contract right now.
And with the new collective bargaining agreement likely to change the courses of a few teams, someone will be interested in that deal and the future flexibility it brings.
Oklahoma City Thunder
21 of 30
Oklahoma City Stands Pat
Every team does something in the offseason, and that'll probably include the Oklahoma City Thunder.
But their moves will be ones to address the fringes of the roster, since their players under contract and incoming rookies give them more than enough players for a full roster.
And it feels too early to do something dramatic to break up this organic build. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off a first-team All-NBA selection. Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams are steadily improving. And Chet Holmgren will be a rookie this season after missing Year 1 with a foot injury.
Orlando Magic
22 of 30
Jonathan Isaac Gets Traded
In the rare stretches in which he's been healthy, Jonathan Isaac has looked like a defensive menace, with career averages of 1.4 blocks and 1.1 steals in just 24.7 minutes.
However, he missed all of 2020-21 and 2021-22 recovering from a torn ACL. And in the seasons bookending those campaigns, he only managed 45 appearances. All told, in six years, he's played in a total of 147 games due to various injuries.
Isaac is only 25, but all those absences have led to more than enough questions about his long-term health to necessitate a trade.
And while those questions would certainly follow him to a new team, the Orlando Magic might still be able to get some value out of him because of the nature of his contract. It technically runs through 2024-25, but that season is fully non-guaranteed, and 2023-24 is only guaranteed for $7.6 million.
Someone looking for some cap or tax relief might be willing to pay an asset to acquire Isaac's unique contract.
Philadelphia 76ers
23 of 30
Philadelphia Re-Signs James Harden (or He Picks Up His Option)
James Harden has been linked to a potential Rockets reunion for months, but Bleacher Report's Chris Haynes reported earlier this month that "Harden will only entertain suitors that present a competitive roster and the basketball freedom for the star to be himself."
The former will be tough for the Rockets (though not impossible), and the Philadelphia 76ers can pretty much guarantee him 50-plus wins in the regular season with Joel Embiid.
That probably has something to do with recent reports like Marc Stein's indicating Harden's "renewed consideration" to re-sign.
Playoff failures aside, the Harden-Embiid duo has been incredibly productive in the regular season, and Harden will likely give new coach Nick Nurse a chance to work on the stuff that happens in the spring and summer.
Phoenix Suns
24 of 30
Deandre Ayton Gets Traded
The Phoenix Suns seemed completely leveraged after making the Kevin Durant trade that cost them Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson and multiple first-round picks.
But they somehow found a way to unload whatever might've been left of their asset store by bringing in Bradley Beal this summer.
And now, they're entering the offseason over the salary cap and with far less than a full roster available to them.
The quickest and most obvious way to add depth would seem to be moving Deandre Ayton for a pair of role players (and potentially low-level ones at that, given Ayton's trade value).
Jock Landale showed in the playoffs that he may be able to start in a low-usage role alongside Durant, Beal and Devin Booker. And he'll cost far less.
Turning Ayton into two competent guards or wings would be a massive win.
Portland Trail Blazers
25 of 30
Blazers Keep Damian Lillard
This is sort of the companion piece for the Miami Heat slide, which is fine, because Lillard staying put may require a bit more of an explanation.
He's hot on the heels of Clyde Drexler for the franchise's all-time lead in wins over replacement player and win shares.
And over his last four seasons, he's averaged 29.4 points, 7.6 assists and 4.0 threes, while shooting 38.0 percent from deep.
It's more than fair for Portland to still think that he can be the centerpiece of a contender, that just the right second star could get them to that level and that Lillard deserves to chase the top spots on various Trail Blazers career leaderboards.
Having said all that, if Lillard asked out, the Brooklyn Nets could offer an awfully interesting package.
Sacramento Kings
26 of 30
Sacramento Re-Signs Harrison Barnes
Harrison Barnes appears to have multiple suitors around the league, but the Sacramento Kings owning his Bird rights gives them the inside track to retaining him.
And you couldn't blame the Kings for wanting him back.
Over the last three seasons, he averaged 15.8 points and 1.7 threes, while shooting 38.6 percent from three.
And during the team's breakout 2022-23 campaign alone, it was plus-3.9 points per 100 possessions with Barnes on the floor and minus-0.9 with him off. His ability to shoot forced bigs to defend him out to the three-point line and made De'Aaron Fox's drives and Domantas Sabonis' high post creation easier.
San Antonio Spurs
27 of 30
Spurs Add a Veteran (or Two)
The San Antonio Spurs could easily justify slow-playing a rebuild that now features No. 1 overall pick Victor Wembanyama.
There is some intriguing young talent in place to develop alongside him, and Wembanyama being his team's best player right away could be a nice confidence boost.
But the Spurs could have a decent amount of cap space this offseason, and spending it on one or two experienced win-now players could also serve a long-term purpose.
Giving Wembanyama good examples of professionalism and a taste of winning could pay dividends down the road.
Toronto Raptors
28 of 30
Fred VanVleet Leaves Toronto
The writing, as they say, appears to be on the wall for the Toronto Raptors and Fred VanVleet.
After declining his player option, he can sign elsewhere, and for presumably more money.
Toronto is up against the luxury tax line, and Gary Trent Jr. picking up his option to stay put means re-signing VanVleet might put them over that line.
And this team just doesn't feel anywhere near close enough to contention to justify paying the tax.
Utah Jazz
29 of 30
Jordan Clarkson Leaves Utah
Jordan Clarkson has understandably been a fan favorite with the Utah Jazz since he was acquired in 2019-20.
Over those three-plus seasons, he's averaged 17.4 points, 2.8 assists and 2.5 threes in 27.4 minutes. And over the same stretch, Utah's net rating was 1.5 points better with him on the floor.
But it's clear that Clarkson and the team are on different timelines, and he might be able to do better than his $14.3 million player option if he hit the open market.
Playing for more money on a team closer to contention, might be too enticing to pass up for a 31-year-old.
Washington Wizards
30 of 30
Kyle Kuzma Leaves the Wizards
This is a gimme. Kyle Kuzma already declined his option, and with Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porziņģis gone, he'll almost certainly sign elsewhere.
Maybe there's an argument to stay and juice his individual trade and free-agency value ahead of 2024 by pouring in a ton of points for a rebuilding team, but Washington might not want that.
Jordan Poole will get his shots up for the Wizards, but after that, the offensive focus should be on up-and-comers such as Deni Avdija, Corey Kispert and maybe even Johnny Davis.
