How Houston Rockets Can Use Trades, Free Agency to Re-Build Around James Harden

Rumors of a James Harden-Houston Rockets reunion have been smoldering for months.

This week, Bleacher Report's Chris Haynes added some fuel to the potential fire, writing that Harden "intends to decline his $35.6 million player option to become an unrestricted free agent this summer in order to secure a long-term deal."

The catch for Rockets fans is that "Harden will only entertain suitors that present a competitive roster and the basketball freedom for the star to be himself." Houston can almost certainly check that second box. Fielding a competitive roster will be trickier.

"If Houston is all in on a Harden reunion, it will take some roster reconstructing to entice Harden," Haynes wrote. "Houston has a promising young core that includes Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Şengün, along with the No. 4 pick in the upcoming NBA draft, but the team tied for the worst record in the Western Conference last season (22-60)."

On the bright side, Houston has as much potential flexibility as anyone to remake this team on the fly, at least as it regards cap space.

Depending on how many cap holds they renounce and how many options they decline, the Rockets can get to anywhere from $48.1 to $65.1 million in cap space this offseason.

Harden took a discount to make $33 million this season, and if he were to pick up his player option, he'd be at $35.6 million in 2023-24 (though we already covered that that's not likely to happen).

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Harden's potential starting salary for a max deal this summer would be $46.9 million, so Houston can sign him outright and potentially still have a little wiggle room in free agency. He could also take another discount, perhaps in exchange for the "long-term" contract he's reportedly after. Even if he signs for a salary that starts in the high 30s or low 40s, Houston being willing to give him four years could make up the difference.

Harden turns 34 in August, and he had plenty of moments toward the end of the season and during the playoffs that suggest he's slowing down (or at least isn't as explosive as he was when he last wore a Rockets uniform). It wouldn't be at all surprising if front offices around the league are hesitant to sign up for paying him north of $40 million as he starts to push 40 years old.

That might even include the Rockets. But let's assume they're among the few who'd sign up for four years of Harden (that could very well include his twilight).

If Harden did indeed sign for a bit of a discount, Houston might be able to sign another mid-tier impact free agent outright. Then, it could push itself over the cap by re-signing one or two of its own free agents and give itself access to the mid-level exception.

In those scenarios, the Rockets would likely be looking at less flashy names like...

• Thomas Bryant, who averaged 12.1 points with a 71.2 true shooting percentage before being traded to the Denver Nuggets;
• Jae Crowder, a switchy defender who averaged 9.4 points and shot 37.4 percent from three over the last three seasons;
  
• Dwight Powell, a solid rim-running big who'd feast on lobs from Harden;
• Andre Drummond, who's still only 29 years old and has never spent a significant amount of time on the floor with a playmaker of Harden's caliber;

Of course, that list is by no means exhaustive. There are others who might be willing to sign up for a run with Harden for a deal in the neighborhood of $10 to $20 million. And then you can probably supplement with a couple more players like Patrick Beverley or T.J. Warren on veteran minimum deals.

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Even if Houston nailed multiple moves along those lines, it probably wouldn't have anything near a contender on its hands. To truly entice Harden to sign there, it'd likely have to convince him that it can swing a trade for a star.

Or perhaps it could use some of the cap space to absorb a contract and swing such a deal before free agency even starts. The Rockets would just have to be careful to preserve enough space to sign Harden in that scenario.

For the sake of today's argument, let's say they sign Harden and a couple other free agents before landing a bigger name in a trade.

Such a deal would almost certainly include Kevin Porter Jr. (whose $18.2 million salary is the only one over $10 million on the books for 2023-24) and at least one member of an intriguing young core that includes Green, Smith and Şengün.

Last month, Yahoo! Sports' Jake Fischer reported that the Rockets "addressed the idea of including second-year guard Jalen Green, the No. 2 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, as part of a package for acquiring established star talent."

Sending KPJ and Green together could get Houston in the market for a player making around $30 million next season. That's a list that could include Deandre Ayton, Jaylen Brown or DeMar DeRozan. That return may not make a lot of sense for contenders or near-contenders like the Boston Celtics or Phoenix Suns, but maybe the Chicago Bulls are ready to blow it up and rebuild. And any team would certainly be more interested in offers from Houston if they came with the No. 4 pick in this year's draft (or the player taken there, if the trade happens later in the offseason).

In sum, a lot would have to happen to instantly turn the Rockets into a competitive team, but it's not impossible. And Harden would certainly help.

Despite slowing down, he's still averaged at least 20 points and at least 10 assists in each of the last three seasons.

And it's reasonable to think that his playmaking would bring young talent like Şengün and Smith closer to the level they need to be on to push for a playoff berth.

With the qualifications laid out by Haynes, Houston may not look like the likeliest destination right now, but the NBA is wildly unpredictable. Things can change on a dime. And the Rockets at least have some options to help draw back their former face of the franchise.