Reevaluating All 30 MLB Teams Based on 2023 Preseason Projections
With less than two weeks to go until the midpoint of the 2023 Major League Baseball regular season, let's take a trip down memory lane to the land of preseason expectations to evaluate how well (or how not so well) each of the 30 teams has fared.
For each squad, we'll be comparing preseason win totals—chronicled in this article from late March—to current projected win total (a 50/50 combination of winning percentage and run differential) to come up with a letter grade.
Teams with a trajectory within one (in either direction) of their preseason win total were given the perfectly average grade of C, as they are who we thought they would be. From there, the scale goes outward in three-win chunks. Teams on track for at least 19 more wins than expected get an A+, while an F- was given to any team headed for at least 19 fewer wins than its preseason win total.
Beyond the grades, we'll also be discussing one big positive surprise for each team, as well as one sizable disappointment.
And yes, there will be one of each for every team.
That means we're saying some nice things about Kansas City and Oakland while also touching on some things that haven't gone according to plan for the likes of Tampa Bay and Texas.
Teams are presented in alphabetical order.
All statistics and records current through the start of play Thursday, unless otherwise noted.
Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 75.5 wins
Current: 41-27, +28 run differential
Projection: 92.4 wins
Grade: A
Most Pleasant Surprise
He has cooled off in a big way over the past month, but Geraldo Perdomo waking up on May 4 with a .409 batting average is not something anyone could have possibly predicted.
Among the 132 players who made at least 500 plate appearances in 2022, only San Diego's Trent Grisham (.184) had a worse batting average than Perdomo's .195, this after he hit .240 across all levels of baseball in 2021.
But the 23-year-old shortstop went 27-for-66 in Arizona's first 31 games, including 11 multi-hit performances. And though his average has plummeted to below .300 since then, he still has three home runs and six stolen bases dating back to May 5. Not bad for a guy who often hits from the 9-hole.
Biggest Letdown
It's got to be Madison Bumgarner, right?
If you had been able to tell me before the season that the Diamondbacks would be tied for the best record in the National League after 65 games, I would've had to assume MadBum hopped into a time machine and started pitching like it's 2016 again, considering the veteran lefty's salary made up about one-fifth of Arizona's entire 2023 payroll.
Rather, Bumgarner made just four starts with a 10.26 ERA before getting designated for assignment, and the Diamondbacks have been thriving in spite of him.
Atlanta Braves
2 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 94.5 wins
Current: 42-26, +72 run differential
Projection: 98.8 wins
Grade: B-
Most Pleasant Surprise
Ronald Acuña Jr. being very good at baseball is the furthest thing from a surprise, but it has been refreshing to see him back and better than ever after a post-ACL-surgery 2022 campaign in which he wasn't hitting for anything close to his usual power.
Acuña is running away with the NL MVP award this year, though, batting .333 with 15 home runs, 44 RBI and 29 stolen bases. He'll need to slightly pick up the pace in homers to get the 40/40 season he narrowly missed out on in 2019 (41 HR, 37 SB), but he is well on his way to becoming the first player with at least 30 home runs and 60 stolen bases in a single season.
Biggest Letdown
Michael Harris II had been stuck in one hell of a sophomore slump, batting .165 with just one home run in his first 28 games. But the 2022 NL Rookie of the Year has turned a serious corner, hitting .302 with four home runs and three stolen bases in his last 18 games.
No weak link to be found in this lineup now.
But the bullpen has been a season-long mess, choking away yet another game Monday night when closer Raisel Iglesias was unable to preserve a three-run ninth-inning lead against the light-hitting Detroit Tigers.
Iglesias had been solid up until that point, as that implosion ended a nearly month-long streak without allowing any runs. As a team, though, they have blown 14 saves on the season. And at this point, Jesse Chavez is Atlanta's only reliever with at least 9.0 innings pitched and a sub-3.00 ERA. (And Chavez took a liner off his shin Wednesday. X-rays were negative, but their best reliever might be out of commission for a bit.)
Baltimore Orioles
3 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 76.5 wins
Current: 42-25, +41 run differential
Projection: 96.1 wins
Grade: A+
Most Pleasant Surprise
Based on jersey number alone, Yennier Cano is not supposed to be good.
I mean, 78? Really? Aside from Julio Urías wearing 78 as a midseason call-up in 2016, no one who has worn that number in the majors has ever amounted to anything. Couple that with Cano posting an 11.50 ERA in 18.0 innings of work in his first MLB season in 2022, and no one exactly had him penciled in as one of the most valuable relievers in the big leagues.
But he has been. Cano allowed just four hits, no walks and no runs in his first 21.2 innings. He was never going to be able to sustain that for an entire season, but he still has a 1.06 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP, even after coming back to earth a bit over the past month.
Biggest Letdown
While Cano has stormed into the AL Rookie of the Year mix, the O's pitcher who was supposed to be part of that conversation—Grayson Rodriguez—simply did not live up to the hype.
In 10 starts before getting sent back down to Triple-A Norfolk, the 23-year-old had a 7.35 ERA, thrice in May allowing at least six earned runs while failing to make it out of the fourth inning.
That story may still have a happy ending in 2023, as Rodriguez has posted a 2.25 ERA and a 12.0 K/9 in two starts with the Tides. For the time being, though, it's hard to believe the Orioles have been this good while getting so little from their ace of the future.
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Boston Red Sox
4 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 78.5 wins
Current: 34-35, +1 run differential
Projection: 80.5 wins
Grade: C+
Most Pleasant Surprise
In Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, James Paxton and Nick Pivetta, the Red Sox have four veteran pitchers who have each started at least 140 career games. But it's 24-year-old Brayan Bello who has emerged as the unlikely ace of the staff.
Bello struggled to the tune of a 9.82 ERA in his first two starts of 2023 after opening the season on the IL with elbow inflammation, but he has since made eight starts with a 2.80 ERA, averaging nearly one strikeout per inning.
He was a strikeout fiend in the minors in 2021 and 2022, averaging better than 12 K/9 in each of those seasons. So, while he has been impressive over the past month and a half, we know there's still another gear he could find.
Biggest Letdown
Bello and a handful of middle relievers (notably Josh Winckowski) have done a fine job on the mound this season, but on the whole, Boston's pitching has been just not good.
And within the pitching staff, the biggest disappointment has certainly been Kluber.
Granted, he's 37 years old, but he was at least respectable over the past two seasons with the Yankees and Rays, posting a 4.17 ERA across 47 starts.
He made three quality starts against the Red Sox just last season.
But that guy never made it to Beantown. Kluber had a 6.26 ERA through nine starts before getting relegated to the bullpen and getting even worse. Suffice it to say, Boston's $10 million flyer on Kluber didn't pan out.
Chicago Cubs
5 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 77.5 wins
Current: 30-37, -1 run differential
Projection: 76.6 wins
Grade: C
Most Pleasant Surprise
He has been out with a knee injury for a month at this point, but Cody Bellinger certainly was the pleasant surprise of the entire MLB season before he got hurt.
At the end of April, the 27-year-old was batting .297/.371/.604 with seven home runs. He had 162-game paces of 47 home runs and 122 RBI, almost identical to where he finished his NL MVP campaign in 2019 (.305 AVG, 47 HR, 115 RBI).
It was shaping up to be a renaissance type of season for the young man who hit just .193 over the previous two seasons in Los Angeles. We'll see if he can rekindle that fire if and when he gets back from the IL.
Biggest Letdown
The Cubs signed three free agents to eight-figure salaries this past offseason.
The Dansby Swanson acquisition has worked out pretty well.
The Bellinger reclamation project was a home run for the first six weeks of the season.
And then there's the Jameson Taillon signing.
The Cubs got him for four years at $68 million, but we are still waiting for the first great start in the Chicago portion of his career. Taillon has a 6.70 ERA through 11 appearances, and it hasn't just been one or two implosions. He has allowed at least three earned runs in nine of those 11 starts and has only once finished the sixth inning of a start. The Cubs have gone just 2-9 with him on the mound.
Chicago White Sox
6 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 82.5 wins
Current: 30-39, -52 run differential
Projection: 69.6 wins
Grade: D-
Most Pleasant Surprise
Jake Burger blossoming into a top-tier slugger has been a sight to behold.
He mashed baseballs over his final two seasons at Missouri State (2016-17) en route to becoming a first round pick. But a ruptured Achilles suffered in February 2018 caused him to miss two full seasons, followed by the pandemic canceling all minor league baseball in 2020.
When the 27-year-old was finally able to play again, he hit 18 home runs in 82 games at Triple-A Charlotte in 2021.
It wasn't until this season that he really brought that power to the big leagues, though, clubbing 13 home runs in his first 149 plate appearances and adding two more in Wednesday's victory over the Dodgers.
Along with Eloy Jiménez, Luis Robert Jr. and Andrew Vaughn, Burger could be a legitimate building block for the franchise for at least the next half-decade.
Biggest Letdown
In Lance Lynn, Chicago's highest-priced player has also been its least valuable one.
He had a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the previous four seasons, earning Cy Young votes in each of 2019, 2020 and 2021.
But that guy is nowhere to be found. Through 14 starts, the 36-year-old has a 6.75 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. He does have four quality starts to his name, but he has allowed multiple runs in every appearance.
Lynn did have a 5.88 ERA after 11 starts last season before posting a 2.18 ERA the rest of the way. Maybe he'll be a late bloomer once again, as he does still have a respectable strikeout rate (10.0 K/9). But he's allowing walks, hits and home runs at rates well above where we're used to seeing him operate.
Cincinnati Reds
7 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 65.5 wins
Current: 34-35, -29 run differential
Projection: 77.2 wins
Grade: B+
Most Pleasant Surprise
I'm just going to call the Reds as a whole the most pleasant surprise.
This team was supposed to be terrible in 2023. They traded away Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Tyler Naquin, Brandon Drury and Tommy Pham at last year's deadline, getting back 11 players who had yet to make their MLB debut (nine of whom still haven't.) They proceeded to trade away Kyle Farmer and Dauri Moreta in November, cut Mike Moustakas in January and did a whole lot of nothing in free agency.
Their highest-paid active player is Kevin Newman at $2.662 million.
They really should be battling Oakland for the No. 1 draft pick.
And yet, since the end of play on May 25, they have the second-best record in baseball and have clawed their way back into the wide-open NL Central race—with nary a clear-cut All-Star in the bunch.
Biggest Letdown
Though the Reds have been a pleasant surprise, the young starting pitchers haven't been.
Well, not all of them. Hunter Greene has looked pretty great, although he only has a 1-4 record to show for it.
But Graham Ashcraft and Nick Lodolo, both 25, had an ERA north of 6.00 prior to each landing on the IL with lower-leg injuries. Brandon Williamson, also 25, had an impressive MLB debut in Colorado in mid-May, but he also has an ERA north of 6.00 over his last five starts. So does 29-year-old Luke Weaver in his 10 starts on the year.
Cincinnati's offense has been great, and should be for years to come, as basically every key contributor is 29 or younger. But there is much work to be done in this rotation before the Reds can be taken seriously as a contender. (Though, again, no one realistically expected this team to contend this season.)
Cleveland Guardians
8 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 86.5 wins
Current: 31-36, -26 run differential
Projection: 74.4 wins
Grade: D-
Most Pleasant Surprise
Sitting a few games below .500, the Guardians have been a disappointment.
But how about the jobs done by the 24-year-olds on the pitching staff?
Logan Allen has made nine starts with 3.31 ERA, while Tanner Bibee has been almost as good with a 3.91 ERA in his nine starts. Both guys made their MLB debuts in late April and have since done everything in their power to keep this team afloat.
And while Xzavion Curry has been mostly used in long-relief mop-up roles, he has logged 35.1 innings with a 2.55 ERA. (It's a 1.78 ERA over his last 14 appearances.)
Also, all 19 pitchers who have taken the mound this season are aged 24-28, so this might be a mighty good staff for years to come.
Biggest Letdown
Amed Rosario had amassed 10.3 bWAR over the past five seasons and was one of the biggest reasons the Guardians won 92 games in 2022.
But this season has been a struggle for him, both at the dish and in the field, as he has a .610 OPS with eight errors at shortstop.
It could turn into a long-term blessing in disguise for Cleveland, though, as their chances of re-signing the impending free agent are much higher if he continues to struggle. However, they did recently call up their shortstop of the future, Brayan Rocchio, so Rosario might just be tanking his trade value.
Colorado Rockies
9 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 65.5 wins
Current: 29-41, -70 run differential
Projection: 66.6 wins
Grade: C+
Most Pleasant Surprise
Elias Díaz has cooled off considerably over the past couple of weeks, but he was batting .340 with a .927 OPS through his first 44 games.
The 32-year-old catcher did hit 18 home runs in 2021, but he was a career .243 hitter coming into the season, fresh off a 2022 campaign in which his value added was only marginally better than replacement level.
Also on the "surprising production from a veteran" front, Chase Anderson has given the Rockies six starts with a 3.16 ERA. The 35-year-old had been released five times in the past two calendar years, including twice by the Detroit Tigers without even pitching for them. He has been an unexpected key contributor, to say the least.
Biggest Letdown
The Rockies have a bunch of high-priced players amounting to very little, but Kris Bryant takes the cake at $28 million for a .374 slugging percentage.
The 2016 NL MVP got out to a solid start, batting .307 with five home runs through his first 36 games. But he sputtered in a hurry from there, batting .151 over the course of the next three weeks before yet another trip to the IL.
Detroit Tigers
10 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 69.5 wins
Current: 27-39, -86 run differential
Projection: 62.6 wins
Grade: D+
Most Pleasant Surprise
Eduardo Rodríguez is out indefinitely with a ruptured tendon in a finger on his pitching hand, but he sure was putting on a show prior to the injury.
Never before in his career had he finished a season with an ERA of 3.80 or better, nor a WHIP of 1.26 or better. Through 11 starts, though, he's sitting at 2.13 and 0.975, respectively.
There was a particularly dominant six-start stretch in which he allowed just two runs in 41.2 innings of work. And we're not talking about six straight starts against basement-dwellers. It was two against Baltimore, two against Cleveland and one each against the Blue Jays and Mets.
With the Tigers fading fast in recent weeks, he could be one of the top names on the trade block.
Biggest Letdown
It has been a tale of three seasons for Javier Báez.
Through his first 11 games, he was batting .100 with no extra-base hits.
He proceeded to hit .314 with three home runs and three stolen bases over the course of the next five weeks. But now he's back in a funk with a .194 average over his last 25 games.
All told? Not great. His WAR is negligible, and it's looking like Detroit is going to be stuck paying $98 million for Báez from 2024-27, as it's hard to imagine he'll opt out of the remainder of that contract after such an unproductive season.
Houston Astros
11 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 95.5 wins
Current: 39-29, +61 run differential
Projection: 95.0 wins
Grade: C
Most Pleasant Surprise
When José Altuve suffered a broken thumb in the World Baseball Classic, it sure seemed like Houston was going to have to tread water at second base until he was able to make his return.
The Astros had little choice but to cross their fingers with some combination of David Hensley and Mauricio Dubón, the latter of whom hit .208 for them in 83 games as a utility man in 2022.
Lo and behold, Dubón was so good in that long-term fill-in role that the Astros have made it a point to keep getting him into the lineup as often as possible, even with Altuve back in the mix. He's batting .296 on the year and hit his third home run of the season in Tuesday's victory over the Nationals.
Biggest Letdown
José Abreu does finally have a few home runs to his credit. He didn't hit a single four-bagger in his first 50 games with the Astros, but he now has four of them.
Still, Abreu has been a massive letdown since signing that three-year, $58.5 million deal.
Even with the recent home runs factored in, he ranks third-to-last in fWAR among qualified hitters. Abreu had a .354 OBP and slugged .507 in nine seasons with the White Sox, but he has marks of .289 and .320, respectively, with Houston.
Kansas City Royals
12 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 69.5 wins
Current: 18-50, -107 run differential
Projection: 49.4 wins
Grade: F-
Most Pleasant Surprise
Since trading away Mike Moustakas in 2018, the hot corner has been a hot mess for the Kansas City Royals.
But in rookie Maikel Garcia, they may have finally found a solution to a persistent problem.
With just 22 home runs in 550 games across all levels in the past seven seasons, he's not a slugger. But Garcia does get on base at a good clip and has a good glove.
He spent most of his career at shortstop, but he has done quite well in his transition to third base—a necessity to get on the field for a team that figures to have Bobby Witt Jr. at shortstop for at least the next half-decade.
Biggest Letdown
Speaking of third base woes, the Royals finally threw in the towel on Hunter Dozier.
They had signed him to a four-year, $25 million deal before the 2021 season, but he never came close to recapturing his lightning in a bottle from 2019.
The 31-year-old was worth negative-3.6 bWAR between 2021 and 2022, and things were going even worse this year with a .558 OPS through 29 games.
Worst of all, it was a back-loaded contract, so the Royals ate $7.5 million this year and $9.25 million for next season in designating him for assignment.
Los Angeles Angels
13 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 82.5 wins
Current: 38-32, +18 run differential
Projection: 86.5 wins
Grade: C+
Most Pleasant Surprise
In six seasons with the Colorado Rockies, Carlos Estévez had a 4.59 ERA. But he was substantially better on the road than he was at Coors Field, so there was hope that he might be a reliable closer if he got to pitch his home games at a more normal elevation level.
And after starting the season in a co-closer role with José Quijada, Estévez has blossomed into one of the most trustworthy ninth-inning arms in the business.
He has a 1.50 ERA and has tallied 18 saves without blowing a single one. He and Cincinnati's Alexis Díaz (17 for 17) are the only pitchers with at least 10 saves and nary a blown save. Estévez is also striking out opposing hitters at the highest rate of his career (11.7 K/9).
Biggest Letdown
Yet again, Anthony Rendon is providing the Angels with basically no return on massive investment.
He missed nearly a month with a hamstring/groin injury, but for better or worse, he's back in the lineup. Through 37 games played, he is batting .254 with just one home run. And considering he has started every one of those games at either third or fourth in the batting order, that is brutal.
Rendon hit 34 home runs in his final season with Washington in 2019 before signing his $245 million contract.
He has hit a grand total of 21 home runs since then.
Los Angeles Dodgers
14 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 95.5 wins
Current: 38-30, +62 run differential
Projection: 92.4 wins
Grade: C-
Most Pleasant Surprise
Bobby Miller has posted a 0.78 ERA in four starts since getting called up in late May, but we can hardly call it a surprise that one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball is finding success on the mound.
J.D. Martinez is also having one heck of a season, already matching his home run total from 2022.
But the most pleasant surprise for the Dodgers has been Jason Heyward making a legitimate, positive impact, given the way things ended for him with the Chicago Cubs.
Between 2021 and 2022, he batted .211/.280/.326 with nine home runs in 152 games. He was worth negative-0.3 bWAR. Now he is slugging .472 with seven home runs for Los Angeles, thriving in a platoon where he basically never has to face left-handed pitchers.
He's still only 33 years old, too, so perhaps he can hang around for a few more years in this type of role.
Biggest Letdown
The constant presence of the injury bug is the real letdown for the Dodgers, who currently have 11 players on the 60-day IL and three other pitchers on the 15-day IL.
But as far as disappointment on the field is concerned, Noah Syndergaard has been the biggest letdown.
The Dodgers took a one-year, $13 million flyer on "Thor" after he made it through a healthy 2022 campaign with a sub-4.00 ERA, but he has been lit up for a 7.16 ERA, allowing 71 hits in 55.1 innings of work prior to becoming one of those pitchers on the 15-day IL.
He pitched relatively well early on with quality starts in three of his first four outings, but it's been all downhill from there.
Miami Marlins
15 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 76.5 wins
Current: 38-31, -30 run differential
Projection: 81.3 wins
Grade: B-
Most Pleasant Surprise
It's a surprise that Luis Arráez is flirting with hitting .400, but it's not a surprise that the 2022 AL batting champ is seeing the ball well.
What has been a surprise, though, is Jorge Soler resurfacing as one of the best power hitters in the world.
Soler hit 48 home runs with a .569 slugging percentage in 2019, and he proceeded to hit a combined 48 home runs with a .425 slugging percentage over the course of the next three seasons.
Last year was particularly brutal, batting .207 and slugging .400 while appearing in just 72 games.
But Soler is very much in the mix for the NL home run crown with 20 dingers and a .564 slugging percentage. He almost certainly won't finish ahead of Bryce Harper or J.D. Martinez to start at DH for the All-Star Game, but he arguably should.
Biggest Letdown
From 2013-22, Jean Segura hit .286/.331/.411, averaging 13 home runs and 25 stolen bases per 162 games played. He was a two-time All-Star and just a consistently above-average producer.
Until he signed a two-year, $17 million deal with the Marlins, that is.
Segura did finally hit his first home run of the year this past Sunday, but he is batting .190/.259/.234, and his transition from second base to third base has been a disaster.
Among all hitters in baseball, Segura has the worst bWAR.
Milwaukee Brewers
16 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 85.5 wins
Current: 34-34, -25 run differential
Projection: 77.8 wins
Grade: D
Most Pleasant Surprise
In 2020, Julio Teherán made 10 appearances with the Angels with a 10.05 ERA.
The following year, he made one start for the Tigers before spending the rest of the year on the IL.
He started 2022 in the Independent League and later landed in the Mexican League.
But with Brandon Woodruff, Wade Miley and Eric Lauer all on the IL, the Brewers took a chance on Teherán, signing him on May 23 to make a start two days later—even though he had a 5.63 ERA in eight Triple-A starts in El Paso.
Against all odds, he has been great, making four starts with a 1.48 ERA in 24.1 innings pitched.
(The next step is actually getting him some run support, as Milwaukee has put up a grand total of five runs in Teherán's games.)
Biggest Letdown
During Jesse Winker's five seasons with the Cincinnati Reds, he terrorized the Brewers, batting .322/.409/.605 with 13 home runs in 203 plate appearances.
Nowadays, he is terrorizing the Brewers with his lack of production.
Milwaukee traded Kolten Wong for Winker during the offseason, hoping he would provide some pop in the DH spot. Instead, he is batting .204 with no home runs in 127 trips to the plate.
Minnesota Twins
17 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 83.5 wins
Current: 35-33, +44 run differential
Projection: 88.0 wins
Grade: B-
Most Pleasant Surprise
Bailey Ober had a 3.21 ERA in 11 starts last season, but he wasn't even supposed to be part of Minnesota's starting rotation. The Twins traded for Pablo López, had Kenta Maeda returning from a year on the IL and had Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle coming back to fill out the rest of the rotation.
So, Ober started the year back down with Triple-A St. Paul, where he made four starts with a 2.55 ERA before getting called back up to the big leagues—shortly before both Maeda and Mahle landed on the IL.
And for a backup plan, Ober sure has been impressive, going at least five innings in each of his 10 starts while posting a 2.65 ERA.
Biggest Letdown
Carlos Correa was the biggest letdown for a while, but he has been much better since mid-May, including a walk-off home run against the Brewers on Tuesday.
As such, we'll cut Correa some slack here and go with Christian Vázquez.
The Twins signed the former Red Sox backstop to a three-year, $30 million deal. But after batting .271/.318/.416 from 2019-22, Vázquez has given the Twins just a .550 OPS with no home runs. He is also striking out more often than he did in any previous season.
He has thrown out 25 percent of would-be base-stealers, though, so he's at least providing some value on defense.
New York Mets
18 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 91.5 wins
Current: 32-36, -23 run differential
Projection: 75.9 wins
Grade: F+
Most Pleasant Surprise
Not sure anything about the New York Mets has been a pleasant surprise, but I suppose we could put David Robertson here.
The Mets signed the now-38-year-old reliever to serve as a seventh- or eighth-inning arm, bridging the gap from the high-priced starting rotation to high-priced closer Edwin Díaz. But when Díaz went down with the knee injury in the WBC, Robertson was pushed back into a closer role.
He has thrived in that spot, posting a 1.78 ERA with five times as many strikeouts (40) as walks (eight).
Robertson only has 10 saves because, well, there haven't been that many save opportunities and he was sharing the gig with Adam Ottavino for the first five weeks of the season, but he has yet to allow multiple earned runs in an appearance.
Biggest Letdown
The entire team has been a gigantic disappointment, especially the starting pitching.
For $43.3 million, Max Scherzer has made 11 starts with a 4.45 ERA.
For the same price, Justin Verlander has made eight starts with a 4.40 ERA.
They aren't paying anywhere near as much for Carlos Carrasco ($14 million) or Tylor Megill (an estimated $750,000), but they have been even worse, each responsible for an ERA north of 5.00 and a pathetic K/BB ratio in the 1.4 range.
Per Spotrac, the Mets are spending almost $50 million more on active starting pitchers than any other team. But per Fangraphs, they have the 28th-most valuable rotation.
New York Yankees
19 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 93.5 wins
Current: 39-30, +43 run differential
Projection: 91.7 wins
Grade: C-
Most Pleasant Surprise
Both Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo are hitting well and carrying the offense, but that's no surprise. Ditto with Gerrit Cole being the clear ace of the staff and a top candidate for the AL Cy Young.
The only real surprise is how much they've had to play Willie Calhoun (amid a constant slew of injuries elsewhere on the roster) and how serviceable he has been, mostly in a DH role.
Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference place Calhoun's WAR at 0.0, but it is undeniable that he has been a valuable replacement. Dating back to May 2, he has had an .827 OPS while starting more than half of New York's games.
Considering he hit .221 with a .621 OPS in just 126 games played from 2020-22, no one saw that coming.
Biggest Letdown
Luis Severino sightings were few and far between over the past four seasons. While battling a litany of injuries, he logged just 120.0 innings from 2019-22.
But when he did pitch, he was usually quite effective, with a cumulative 2.85 ERA, 0.975 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 during that time.
That hasn't been the case lately, as Severino has made five starts this season with an ERA that has ballooned to 6.48. He is giving up home runs like never before (eight in 25.0 IP) and isn't generating strikeouts like he used to.
With an effective and healthy season, the 29-year-old could have been headed for a major payday when he hits free agency in a few months. Tough to see that happening at this point.
Oakland Athletics
20 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 60.5 wins
Current: 19-51, -195 run differential
Projection: 43.1 wins
Grade: F
Most Pleasant Surprise
Brent Rooker went AWOL for more than a month after an incredible April, but he's still clearly the pick here.
The 28-year-old entered this season as a career .200 hitter in 81 games played in the majors, but he was hitting .353/.465/.779 at the end of April, blossoming into an early AL MVP candidate out of seemingly nowhere.
Even after a rough May at the plate, he is still running away with the team lead in both home runs (13) and RBI (38).
Rooker (.517) and Ryan Noda (.441) are the only players on Oakland's roster with at least 75 plate appearances and a slugging percentage north of .400.
Biggest Letdown
Shintaro Fujinami had a 3.17 ERA over the past 10 years in Japan and was a low-key, high-intrigue offseason acquisition by the Oakland A's.
He didn't come with anywhere near the promise (or dollar amount) of Masataka Yoshida or Kodai Senga, but the one-year, $3.25 million deal would have made the 29-year-old a hot commodity at the trade deadline if he had been able to pitch that well in the majors.
Suffice it to say, that hasn't happened.
Fujinami had a 14.40 ERA through four starts when he was removed from the rotation. And the 18 appearances with an 8.10 ERA since then haven't gone much better.
Philadelphia Phillies
21 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 88.5 wins
Current: 34-34, -21 run differential
Projection: 78.5 wins
Grade: D
Most Pleasant Surprise
Bryson Stott entered last season as a highly touted prospect. He was a first-round pick in 2019, and he batted .299 with 16 home runs across High-A, Double-A and Triple-A ball in 2021. But his rookie year was nothing special, as he hit .234 during the regular season and .136 during Philadelphia's postseason run.
This year has gone much better for the 25-year-old middle infielder.
He opened the year on a 17-game hitting streak, ending that flourish with a .382 batting average. And after going cold for about a month, he has heated back up lately, getting his batting average back up to .300.
Biggest Letdown
At the beginning of June, this was a 1A and 1B situation between Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber. But with that duo heating up as of late, the Phillies have also caught fire, winning nine of their last 11 games.
We're still going to go with Turner for biggest letdown, though, as two good weeks doesn't erase how poorly he fared for the first two months of the season.
Even after the recent surge, Turner's on-base percentage (.299) remains below what his career batting average was coming into the season (.302). Two years removed from leading the National League in batting average, hits, stolen bases and total bases (in just 148 games played), he's still finding his way in Philadelphia.
Pittsburgh Pirates
22 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 68.5 wins
Current: 34-32, -10 run differential
Projection: 81.0 wins
Grade: B+
Most Pleasant Surprise
If you predicted Pittsburgh's Jack Suwinski ranking top five in the National League in OPS more than two-and-a-half months into the season, step forward and claim your prize.
The 24-year-old did hit 19 home runs last season as a rookie, but he only batted .202 and only slugged .411. And in his six-season career in the minor leagues, he slugged .397 and had a .727 OPS.
Not exactly "home run king" potential.
But Suwinski has had not one, not two, not three but four multi-HR games this season, three of which have come in the past three weeks. He now has 15 taters on the year with a .913 OPS.
Biggest Letdown
It'd be hard to argue that anyone on the low-budget Pirates has fallen disastrously short of expectation, but it is definitely a letdown that both Oneil Cruz and Ji-Man Choi have been on the IL since less than two weeks into the season.
Choi is working his way back from an Achilles strain while Cruz is still about two months away from returning from the broken leg he suffered in Pittsburgh's ninth game of the year.
The Pirates fared OK without that duo for the first couple of weeks, but since April 29, they have scored the fewest runs in the majors and have near the worst record to show for it. They would perhaps be leading the NL Central by a six- or seven-game margin if those two hitters were healthy.
San Diego Padres
23 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 93.5 wins
Current: 33-34, +27 run differential
Projection: 84.1 wins
Grade: D
Most Pleasant Surprise
Gary Sánchez signed with the Giants two days after the season began and hit just .164 at Triple-A Sacramento before getting released in early May. He got scooped up by the Mets a week later, but he appeared in just three games before also being released by them.
Third team's the charm, though, as Sánchez has been on a rampage since signing with the Padres on May 29 and appearing in every San Diego game before a day off on Thursday.
In 54 plate appearances, Sánchez has six home runs and 15 RBI, good for a .936 OPS. And compared to two-plus months' worth of Austin Nola hitting .135 as the primary catcher, it has made a big difference for this offense as a whole.
Biggest Letdown
Early in the year, San Diego was overflowing with expensive disappointments. But Manny Machado has been on fire over the past 10 days while Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove have each posted a sub-2.00 ERA over the course of their last four starts.
At this point, the biggest letdown is simply San Diego's luck in close games and its inability to deliver in the clutch.
The Padres are 4-12 in games decided by one run, and they are batting a horrific .199 with runners in scoring position. They were the only team in the majors with a sub-.500 record (32-34) and a positive run differential (+22) before Seattle and Boston joined that dubious club on Wednesday.
San Francisco Giants
24 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 81.5 wins
Current: 36-32, +27 run differential
Projection: 86.6 wins
Grade: B-
Most Pleasant Surprise
LaMonte Wade Jr. couldn't hit much of anything last season, entering the final day of the regular season with a .198 batting average and a .299 on-base percentage.
But he has displayed one of the best batting eyes in the majors with a .415 on-base percentage that is second only to Miami's Luis Arráez.
Entering Wednesday's win over the Cardinals, Wade had made 250 plate appearances—one fewer than where he finished last season. And in that near-identical sample size, he had accumulated 10 more hits and 18 more walks, for an OPS that skyrocketed from .665 to .878.
Biggest Letdown
This past offseason, the Giants signed four players to multi-year deals with an AAV of at least $12.5 million: Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea.
And while the Conforto portion of that quartet has worked out nicely, the rest has not gone according to plan.
Manaea has a 5.52 ERA and the worst walk rate (3.9 BB/9) of his career. Stripling has been ever worse with a 7.24 ERA. And Haniger—who had operated at a 162-game pace of 38 home runs and 101 RBI over the past two seasons—started the season on the IL, hit four home runs over the course of 40 games (for a 162-game pace of 16.2) and then landed back on the IL this week with a fractured arm.
Seattle Mariners
25 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 87.5 wins
Current: 33-34, +7 run differential
Projection: 81.3 wins
Grade: D+
Most Pleasant Surprise
The 2023 Jarred Kelenic experience has been one heck of a roller coaster.
After a rough first week, he exploded for a 10-game stretch with a .441 batting average and four home runs. Later in April, he homered in three consecutive games, followed by a 13-game stretch with no home runs and a .204 batting average. He heated up again for two weeks in mid-May, but he is batting .164 dating back to May 24.
But, hey, at least there's been some incredible peaks for a player who had seemingly nothing but valleys in the majors between 2021 and 2022.
When he made his debut in 2021, Kelenic and Julio Rodríguez were neck-and-neck in all the prospect rankings. And it has been refreshing to see him living up to that potential.
Biggest Letdown
Kolten Wong has been such a colossal disappointment for the Mariners that they even took a flyer on signing Didi Gregorius to a minor league deal last week.
The real letdown, though, was Robbie Ray making just one start before suffering a season-ending injury.
The highest-salaried Mariner by a $7 million margin was supposed to be the ace of one of the better starting rotations in the majors. Instead, Seattle has spent the entire season trying to find an even remotely reliable fifth starter.
St. Louis Cardinals
26 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 88.5 wins
Current: 27-42, -13 run differential
Projection: 70.7 wins
Grade: F
Most Pleasant Surprise
Nolan Gorman had a respectable 2022 campaign, but he wasn't even close to the best rookie on the Cardinals roster. Both Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar were more impressive overall, and both Juan Yepez and Andre Pallante were better out of the gates prior to fading down the stretch.
Of that quintet, though, Gorman is clearly having the best run in 2023, leading the Cardinals in home runs (15), RBI (46) and slugging percentage (.507).
It only took Gorman 40 games to surpass his RBI total from 89 games played in 2022, at which point he had an OPS of 1.014.
The past three weeks haven't gone nearly as well, as he has struck out in nearly 50 percent of plate appearances dating back to May 23. And still, his full-season numbers look pretty good.
Biggest Letdown
Got to go with Adam Wainwright here, who finally got a visit from Father Time.
The Cardinals brought back the 41-year-old pitcher on a one-year, $17.5 million deal, but he injured his groin in the World Baseball Classic and missed more than a month before returning for seven consecutive mediocre starts.
He has a 5.79 ERA, he isn't striking anyone out and the velocity on his fastball is a full three mph slower than it was in 2021.
Granted, none of the pitchers on the Cardinals staff have been particularly good. But given how long he has been the face of this staff, Wainwright's starts have felt especially emblematic of their entire season.
Tampa Bay Rays
27 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 88.5 wins
Current: 49-22, +141 run differential
Projection: 111.7 wins
Grade: A+
Most Pleasant Surprise
Tampa Bay as a whole has been way better than expected, but two hitters stand out in particular.
The first is Josh Lowe, whose .871 OPS is almost 250 points higher than it was last season. In roughly the same number of plate appearances, he has gone from a .221 hitter with two home runs and three stolen bases to a .292 hitter with 11 home runs and 16 stolen bases.
The second is Luke Raley, who triple-slashed .189/.278/.284 with three home runs in 55 games played between 2021 and 2022 before exploding for 11 home runs with a .570 slugging percentage already this season. He had some power during his six seasons in the minors, but never anything quite like this.
Biggest Letdown
The only letdown for Tampa Bay is how beat-up the pitching staff has been, and, in particular, how quickly they lost Jeffrey Springs for the year to Tommy John surgery.
Because for as good as the Rays have been, imagine if they still had that sudden ace who had a 0.56 ERA, 0.50 WHIP and 13.5 K/9 through his first three starts. Or if Drew Rasmussen (2.62 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 9.5 K/9) had lasted more than eight starts before landing on the 60-day IL with a flexor injury.
It's kind of a miracle they've made it 71 games without suffering even a three-game losing streak, since they've been holding the pitching staff together with band-aids.
Texas Rangers
28 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 82.5 wins
Current: 42-25, +145 run differential
Projection: 106.4 wins
Grade: A+
Most Pleasant Surprise
During the 2021-22 offseason, Texas made a four-year, $56 million bet on Jon Gray becoming a borderline ace once he no longer had to make his home starts in Denver.
His first season with the Rangers was nothing special. He made 24 starts (eight quality) with a 7-7 record and a 3.96 ERA. It was better than most of his seasons with the Rockies, but not exactly enough to keep the Rangers from acquiring Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and Jake Odorizzi this past offseason.
But Gray has already made seven quality starts in 2023 with a 2.32 ERA. He has been especially dominant over his last six starts, allowing zero or one runs in each for a 0.84 ERA over 43.0 innings of work.
Biggest Letdown
Definitely deGrom.
He was great when he was on the mound, making six starts with a 2.67 ERA, a 0.76 WHIP and a 13.4 K/9. He would've won AL Cy Young in unanimous fashion if he had been able to do that over the course of 200 innings.
Instead, the 34-year-old made it just 30.1 innings before undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. He will miss the rest of 2023 and at least a sizable portion of 2024, if not all of it.
That five-year, $185 million contract felt like an unnecessarily risky investment from the moment it was announced, and now the Rangers are dealing with predictable buyer's remorse.
Toronto Blue Jays
29 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 91.5 wins
Current: 38-31, +22 run differential
Projection: 87.8 wins
Grade: C-
Most Pleasant Surprise
How about Kevin Kiermaier having a breakout year at 33 years young?
The Blue Jays made it a point to improve their outfield defense this offseason, willing to accept the likely sacrifice on offense that came with it. They traded away both Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (a career .285 hitter with decent pop) and Teoscar Hernández (121 home runs over the past five seasons), replacing them with Daulton Varsho (a career .233 hitter with decent pop and better range than Gurriel) and Kiermaier (35 home runs over the past five seasons, but three Gold Gloves in his career).
Instead of a great glove with a mediocre bat, though, Kiermaier has put up career-best marks in batting average (.294), OBP (.353) and slugging (.471), emerging as near the most valuable player on the roster.
Biggest Letdown
Many projected Alek Manoah to go through some amount of regression after posting a 2.24 ERA last year, but no one expected the 2022 All-Star to completely implode like he has.
In addition to his BABIP coming back to earth and then some, both his home run rate and walk rate more than doubled from last year as his ERA skyrocketed to 6.36.
And after allowing six earned runs in just 0.1 IP on June 5, he got sent back down to simulated spring training in hopes of figuring things out again.
Washington Nationals
30 of 30
Preseason Win Total: 59.5 wins
Current: 26-40, -51 run differential
Projection: 66.2 wins
Grade: B-
Most Pleasant Surprise
By no means is Patrick Corbin giving us flashbacks to the 2018-19 timeframe, when his slider was one of the deadliest pitches in baseball.
But after allowing more earned runs than any other pitcher in the majors in each of the past two years, he has at least been serviceable this season, making seven quality starts while the 14 games below .500 Nationals have gone 7-7 in his turns through the rotation.
Since getting hit around in his first two starts against Atlanta and Tampa Bay, he has posted a 4.39 ERA and gone at least five full innings in each start.
Sure, the Nationals were hoping for more than that when they signed him to that six-year, $140 million contract. However, at least year No. 5 of that albatross is going a whole lot better than years No. 3 and No. 4.
Biggest Letdown
While Washington's one expensive pitcher has had a mini-renaissance, it sure sounds like the other one will never pitch again.
In Jesse Dougherty's piece on Stephen Strasburg for the Washington Post in early June, complications from severe nerve damage were given, including "couldn't stand for long before his right hand went numb" and "often had to lie down and press his hand against his chest to be a warped version of comfortable."
Those reported symptoms were from last summer, but every time he has tried to ramp up his workouts, tingling and numbness have shut him down again.
There are still three-plus years left on the $245 million contract he signed in 2019, but if Strasburg ever pitches again, it would be a pleasant surprise.
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