5 Big Questions On the MLB Impact of Jacob deGrom Tommy John Surgery Bombshell

The Texas Rangers had a nightmare come true on Tuesday and the ramifications of it still loom large a day later.

Suffice to say, it's a big deal when a first-place team like the Rangers loses a pitcher like Jacob deGrom, he of the $185 million contract and two Cy Young Awards, to Tommy John surgery.

And in this case, it will be the ace right-hander's second time having the surgery.

"Anytime you get told you're not gonna be able to be out there for a little while, it's tough," the 34-year-old told reporters. "I went through this before and know what it takes to get back, so that's the goal."

With deGrom due to be sidelined for the rest of 2023 and a large chunk of 2024, there are at least five major questions hanging in the air.

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What Does This Mean for the Rangers?

Though there's no way to spin Tuesday's news as being good for the Rangers, it's not unreasonable to think they can actually withstand deGrom's absence.

After all, they haven't skipped a beat since he last pitched on April 28:

• With deGrom: 15-11, 3.62 ERA
• Without deGrom: 25-9, 3.63 ERA

Setting aside their league-best offense, this is naturally a testament to the Rangers' pitching depth outside of deGrom. Their rotation especially has been terrific to the tune of a 3.19 ERA.

There are nonetheless still some outstanding durability question marks hanging over Texas' rotation. Dane Dunning is the only current member who's younger than 30, and he's likewise a Tommy John survivor alongside Martín Pérez, Andrew Heaney and Nathan Eovaldi, who's had the procedure twice.

So, while the Rangers don't need to rush anything, deGrom's injury would figure to make them that much more willing to shop for starting pitching ahead of the Aug. 1 trade deadline.

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What Does This Mean for the AL West?

As hot as the Rangers have been, their lead in the American League West only stands at a modest 4.5 games.

With the Los Angeles Angels (32-30) and Seattle Mariners (30-30) also still lingering in the background, the defending World Series champion Houston Astros have prevented the Rangers from opening up a big lead by winning 19 of their last 26 games. In FanGraphs' estimation, they remain the favorites to claim the AL West title.

And whereas the Rangers' eventual search for outside help is strictly theoretical for now, Houston general manager Dana Brown has already stated his intent to be aggressive.

If it comes down to prospects, the Rangers will have the edge over the Astros in a bidding war for starting pitching. Yet, payroll flexibility could be a different story.

The Astros are about $15 million shy of the $233 million luxury tax threshold, compared to about $10 million for the Rangers.

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What Does This Mean for Jacob deGrom?

As for deGrom himself, he still has four years left on his contract and he intends to be back before Year 2 is over.

As deGrom pointed out, he's already come back from Tommy John surgery once.

And if not to his own, he can look to Eovaldi's and Justin Verlander's stories for inspiration. The former's best years have come since he had his second Tommy John surgery in 2016, while the latter enjoyed maybe the best Tommy John comeback ever as a 39-year-old last year.

Speaking realistically, though, the circumstances don't align.

Eovaldi was still only 26 when he had his second surgery, while the one Verlander had in 2020 was his first. As deGrom is almost 13 years removed from his first surgery as a 22-year-old in 2010, Jon Roegele's Tommy John database doesn't exactly spit out relevant comps for what he's up against.

There's little reason to think deGrom won't pitch again, period. Whether the triple-digit heat, nasty slider and pinpoint command that made him such a dominant force over the last six years will still be there is a much tougher question to answer.

If they're not, he'll be hard-pressed to add anything substantial to a Hall of Fame resume that was formerly trending wonderfully but now looks insufficient. The Jaffe WAR Score System, for example, doesn't even rate him as a top-100 pitcher of all time.

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Is This the Pitch Timer's Fault?

Another seemingly fair question is whether deGrom's downfall is somehow owed to the pitch timer. After all, it's no secret that its debut has coincided with a rush of pitching injuries.

It is, however, never a good idea to jump to conclusions. And especially not this one.

DeGrom was a fast worker even before the pitch timer came to MLB, which is to say nothing of how the best predictor of future injuries is past injuries. Even before Tuesday, he had had more than his fair share of those in recent years:

So, while nobody can say for certain that the pitch timer didn't have a hand in deGrom's latest injury scare, to assign sole blame misses the mark.

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What Does This Mean for Big-Money Pitchers?

In addition to deGrom, Verlander (2 years, $86.7 million), Carlos Rodón (6 years, $162 million), Taijuan Walker (4 years, $72 million) and Jameson Taillon (4 years, $68 million) have also gotten off to rough starts after signing big deals in free agency this past winter.

Expand the scope even further, and it's hard not to notice that other big-money pitchers who have fallen on hard times since signing in recent years include Stephen Strasburg (7 years, $245 million), Chris Sale (5 years, $145 million), Patrick Corbin (6 years, $140 million), Robbie Ray (5 years, $115 million) and even Max Scherzer (3 years, $130 million).

Pitchers simply have many ways of breaking down. And as such, especially rich deals for pitchers have always been risky. There's nonetheless a creeping sense that things are getting worse, and that it may just be a matter of time before the big pitcher contract goes extinct.

Yet this is what they call catastrophizing.

As easy as it is to dwell on the failures, success stories such as Scherzer's first big contract with the Washington Nationals, both of Zack Greinke's nine-figure free-agent deals and the ongoing pacts involving Gerrit Cole, Kevin Gausman and Zack Wheeler prove that scoring on a big-money pitcher isn't altogether impossible and that it can be worth it when it happens.

Further, there's a sense within baseball that the aging curve might actually be changing in favor of older players. That was indeed quite evident with older pitchers just last year, as those aged 34 and older enjoyed their highest fWAR output in a decade.

In other words, what's happening with deGrom and other similarly expensive pitchers might not be the beginning of the end of an era so much as a rough patch.

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Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.