2023 NBA Free Agents Who Would Be Foolish to Change Teams
When the 2023 NBA free-agent market opens in a few months, players will have a wealth of opportunities in front of them.
Not all of them are worth exploring.
While every free agent is a flight risk to some degree, some won't find any situations better than their current digs. For reasons we'll explain going forward, the following five free agents won't find grass any greener than their own backyards.
Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors (Player Option)
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Back in January, Draymond Green told Bleacher Report's Taylor Rooks that "the writing is on the wall" regarding his future with the Golden State Warriors.
His logic wasn't hard to follow at the time. In October, the Dubs gave nine-figure extensions to both Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins. Green, who was also extension-eligible, didn't get a new deal. While Golden State seemingly prints money, its payroll is going places even this organization may not be able to stomach.
But if the Dubs can make the money work—either by Green picking up his $27.6 million player option or declining it to sign a longer deal (almost assuredly with a lower salary)—there is no reason to break up what has been a preposterously productive partnership.
Keep Green in Northern California, and there's no reason to wonder what kind of player he'd be outside of this system. He is a two-way star for the Warriors, doubling as a dynamic defender and an offensive quarterback. The fact he isn't much of a threat as a scorer (five straight seasons with single-digit points) or as a shooter (career 31.4 percent from three) doesn't matter when Golden State squeezes so much out of his passing, screen-setting and genius-level basketball IQ.
Since landing with the Warriors as the 35th pick in 2012, Green has become a four-time champion, a four-time All-Star, a two-time Defensive Player of the Year and a potential Hall of Famer. Golden State has crafted the perfect role for him, built the perfect system for his skills and surrounded him with some perfectly-fitting teammates.
You're telling me he can remain in this perfect ecosystem and either pocket $27.6 million or collect an eight-figure salary over multiple seasons? That's a no-brainer.
James Harden, Philadelphia 76ers (Player Option)
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It's bizarre to even think there's a decision to be made for James Harden.
If he sticks with the Philadelphia 76ers—by either picking up his $35.6 million player option or ditching it to ink a longer deal—he can chase championships for years to come. Now, Philly hasn't elevated to that level yet, but it isn't a hard leap in logic to think a club with Harden, a perennial MVP candidate in Joel Embiid, a rising star in Tyrese Maxey and maybe the league's most overqualified fourth option in Tobias Harris will be an annual contender (health permitting, obviously).
How could Harden possibly sniff out a better situation in free agency? The fact he'd consider making any change is puzzling, but it enters truly baffling territory when considering the alternative he's reportedly weighing is a return to the Houston Rockets, who just posted a sub-.300 winning percentage for the third consecutive season.
"James Harden's future is very unclear in Philadelphia," ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski said on his podcast (h/t PhillyVoice's Kyle Neubeck). "Houston is very much in play for him."
Traveling back to Space City makes no sense—not for Harden, and not for Houston.
He'll turn 34 this summer. If his decline hasn't started yet (his burst isn't the same, and it's hurting his close-range finishing), it will come for him soon. Staying in Philly would cushion him against that decline. He has already shifted into more of a playmaking role (his 14.5 shots were his fewest as a full-time starter) and could become even more selective with his scoring as Maxey continues his ascension.
Go back to Houston, though, and Harden loses that protection. The Rockets could win the lottery, land Victor Wembanyama and still not have nearly enough scoring—not to mention defense—to support Harden. If he wants to win, then Philly is his best option by a mile.
Josh Hart, New York Knicks (Player Option)
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When Josh Hart joined the New York Knicks at the trade deadline, they became his fourth different team in his six NBA seasons. Before he even hit the hardwood in Gotham, he was already envisioning it becoming his long-term home.
"It's definitely somewhere that I would definitely like to be," Hart told reporters. "I'm looking for a home, and I think this could be it."
The Knicks have leaned heavily on Hart ever since, entrusting him with their second-most minutes of the opening round. He has responded with a little of everything—and tons of energy—including defensive versatility, rebounding, timely shot-making and a pinch of playmaking. He has also, as coach Tom Thibodeau put it, "fit into the group perfectly."
Hart has played at such a high level that his $13 million player option should be declined without a second thought. He can do better on the open market, whether New York pays him or not.
But why wouldn't the Knicks fork over the cash? He has obviously exceeded whatever expectations they could have had when coughing up a first-round pick to get him. During 25 games after the trade, New York fared a whopping 17.1 points better per 100 possessions with him than without.
The Knicks won't find a better do-it-all wing than Hart, and he won't uncover a better situation. His head coach can't get enough of him. His point guard, Jalen Brunson, was Hart's teammate at Villanova. The Knicks have enough scoring help where Hart never needs to carry the load, but they don't have so much where he'd be denied touches when he has it rolling. The defensive protection of having Mitchell Robinson behind him means Hart can play with maximum aggressiveness.
Hart's search for his NBA home should be finished.
Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks (Player Option)
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The vibes are less than immaculate around the Milwaukee Bucks on the heels of their historic upset at the hands of the eighth-seeded (and banged-up!) Miami Heat. Major change could (and, after that collapse, should) be headed Milwaukee's way soon.
None of that changes the fact that the Badger State is the best place to be for Khris Middleton.
For everything that went wrong for the Bucks in that series, Middleton was one of the few things that went right (on the offensive end, at least). He paced the team in points (23.8 on 46.5/40.6/86.7 shooting), dished the second-most dimes (6.2) and snagged the fourth-most rebounds (6.4). This is where it's worth noting his entire season was disrupted by injuries, and prior to the playoffs, he had last played more than four consecutive games in mid-February.
Milwaukee has issues, but Middleton isn't one of them. He is the team's top shot-creator and second-best scorer. When he's healthy, he's at least an average-or-better defender. He has already proved he can win a ring as Giannis Antetokounmpo's sidekick.
The Bucks need Middleton back for myriad reasons, not the least of which is that they wouldn't have the cap space to sign him if he walks.
Middleton, meanwhile, needs Milwaukee just as much.
He'll make a metric ton of money if he stays, either by picking up his $40.4 million player option or negotiating a new deal. And he'll get paid this massive sum to go championship-chasing with an in-prime, two-time MVP in Antetokounmpo. If the Bucks keep this roster intact, they'll have a core that won a title in 2021 and led the league in wins this season.
That's a great setup, even if things don't feel great at the moment.
Where would Middleton even find another good situation elsewhere this summer? Few teams have significant cap space, and those that do are essentially all playing for the future. Is there a young team that could give Middleton anything close to the win-now support he has in Milwaukee? Even if there was, would it want to splurge on someone who turns 32 this offseason and has never made an All-NBA team?
Once time heals the wounds of this premature playoff exit, Middleton and Milwaukee should agree their futures are best spent together.
Russell Westbrook, Los Angeles Clippers (Unrestricted)
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When Russell Westbrook was salary-dumped by the Los Angeles Lakers at the deadline, it wasn't clear what—if anything—the future held for his career. When the Los Angeles Clippers snagged him off waivers a week-plus later, it seemed like a decent setup for him but hardly one that guaranteed success.
Everyone involved had to be thrilled with his two-month tenure with the team.
Buoyed by better spacing and a more defined role than he had with the Lakers, Westbrook got his groove back—and then some. His 56.2 true shooting percentage with the Clippers bested any full-season mark of his 15-year career. His plus-3.0 net differential bettered any he'd posted since leaving the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2019.
He filled a significant role and made an undeniably positive impact on a team that, had it not been for its latest bout with the injury bug, had legitimate championship dreams. Where else is he getting this kind of opportunity?
Cashing out elsewhere seems a remote possibility at best. And what would joining a not-quite-ready team do for him anyway? Certainly nothing good from a legacy perspective. He obviously isn't leading a championship run at this stage of his career. If everything went sideways, there's a non-zero chance he'd wind up with the same kind of irrelevance he seemed headed toward during the darkest days of his Lakers' tenure.
And what would that rebuilder get out of adding him? Could he pave a path to the play-in tournament? Perhaps, but then what—pray to the basketball gods they'll deliver the next version of the Bucks? (Too soon?) He'd be taking minutes, touches or both away from young players who are far more important to that franchise's future.
Run it back in L.A., though, and he might be the starting point guard for a group with a sky-high ceiling if it ever stays healthy. The Clippers' stars wanted him to come. Their top decision-maker wants him to stay. Same goes for their head coach. Westbrook, a Long Beach native, said he "loves it here."
Could he make more money in free agency than the Clippers can pay him ($3.8 million, per ESPN's Bobby Marks)? Maybe. His value is among the league's toughest to gauge, particularly in this market. Assuming the financials aren't dramatically different, though, no alternatives are worth considering.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com. Salary information via Spotrac.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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