Buying or Selling Latest 2023 NFL Buzz Entering Draft Week
The 2023 NFL draft is shaping up to be a rather unpredictable affair. We know that the Carolina Panthers will (most likely) take a quarterback at No. 1 overall. We don't know which quarterback will be selected, and we know even less about the picks that will follow.
"I think the reality of it is anyone who is sitting there and saying, 'Hey, I know exactly what is going to happen at pick 11 or pick 12 or pick 6 or 20,' it's all a guess," Philadelphia Eagles general manager Howie Roseman said, per Dave Spadaro of the team's official website.
The pre-draft smokescreens are at their thickest at this point, and every comment or piece of leaked information must be taken with a handful of skepticism. Teams also tend to be quiet about their free-agency and/or trade intentions, as information there could potentially tip their draft-day hands.
Inevitably, though, some rumors will prove to be accurate.
So, how do we view the latest NFL rumors heading into draft week? Let's take a look.
Panthers Nearly Sold on Bryce Young: Buy
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Reports seem to indicate that Alabama's Bryce Young is Carolina's preferred quarterback.
"The momentum toward Young is real," ProFootballTalk's Peter King wrote earlier in April.
"It would be no short of a shock within the NFL right now if Bryce Young does not go No. 1 overall to Carolina," NFL Media's Tom Pelissero said more recently.
While Young lacks archetypal size (5'10", 204 lbs), he has natural playmaking ability and has reportedly tested well during the pre-draft process. According to Bob McGinn of Go Long, Young scored a 98 percent on the S2 Cognition test, while Ohio State's C.J. Stroud scored 18 percent. For teams that place a lot of value on test scores, that's a win for Young and a potential problem for Stroud.
"The S2 people will say, 'Hey, guys that graded high on this test don't always play well,'" one team executive said, per McGinn, "'But, we've never had somebody grade low and play well.'"
The Panthers appear to be one of those teams that do value testing highly.
"I'm told the Panthers are one of the teams in the NFL that uses what's called an S2 Cognition test," ESPN's Jeremy Fowler said on SportsCenter: "... And I confirmed from multiple sources that Bryce Young did very well on the test, put up a high number."
Carolina may not be 100 percent sold on Young over Stroud, or Florida's Anthony Richardson, but things seem to add up to the Panthers preferring Young—and perhaps a team leaking info in the hope that Stroud falls.
Texans May Not Take a QB at No. 2: Buy
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The Houston Texans need a quarterback, and they have the No. 2 overall selection—which means a shot at whichever quarterback the Panthers don't take.
However, many are convinced that Houston will take a defensive prospect like Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. at No. 2 instead.
"In texts and calls with scouts, coaches and even agents throughout the past week, I couldn't find one person who truly believes the Texans will select a QB there," ESPN's Matt Miller wrote.
Now, this is where I must admit the following possibility: The Panthers secretly like Stroud and are the ones leaking testing info in an attempt to convince Houston to trade up to No. 1 for Young.
However, I do believe that Young will be the pick if Carolina stays at No. 1, and I can envision the Texans passing on a quarterback at No. 2. New head coach DeMeco Ryans has a defensive background, and the Texans defense was a disaster last season (30th in yards allowed).
Additionally, Houston has the 12th overall pick, which was acquired from the Cleveland Browns in the Deshaun Watson trade. Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik came from the San Francisco 49ers, who just had a seventh-round rookie lead them to the NFC title game.
The Texans may well be convinced of their ability to take a prospect like Richardson or Kentucky's Will Levis at No. 12—or perhaps by trading up from that spot—and developing him into a quality starter.
If a QB prospect the Texans love is there at No. 2, they'll take him. If not, they could absolutely go in a different direction.
'Plenty of Teams' View Hendon Hooker as QB3: Sell
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While the top four quarterbacks—Young, Stroud, Richardson and Levis—appear to be first-round locks, Tennessee's Hendon Hooker may join them on opening night. According to NFL Network's James Palmer, Hooker might even go before Richardson or Levis.
"You want to hear what teams think of Hendon Hooker?" Palmer said on Steve Smith Sr.'s Cut to It podcast. "There are plenty of teams that have him above the bottom two that you mentioned [Anthony Richardson and Will Levis]. There are plenty of teams that have him third on their list, right below those top two in Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud."
There may indeed be a couple of teams that like Hooker more than Levis and/or Richardson—and I do expect him to go Round 1 because of the fifth-year option. However, it's hard to believe that "plenty" of teams think that Hooker should be the third quarterback off the board.
We're talking about a 25-year-old prospect who is coming off a torn ACL and might not see the field this season. Levis and Richardson aren't flawless prospects, either, but Levis has experience in a pro-style offense, while Richardson has a rare combination of size (6'4", 244 lbs), speed (4.43-second 40-yard dash) and arm talent.
Hooker doesn't seem to have any one elite trait and played in a very quarterback-friendly offense in college.
"Hooker will have to adjust greatly to a real passing offense," Derrik Klasen of the Bleacher Report Scouting Department wrote. "Additionally, Hooker's accuracy often suffers when he is throwing anything but 5-15 yard in-breaking routes."
Hooker has a combination of timing, anticipation, mobility and pocket presence that could allow him to succeed as an NFL starter. However, the feeling here is that some teams are hyping Hooker in an effort to either mask their intentions or convince another team to bite on Hooker, leaving Levis or Richardson on the board.
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Colts Prefer Will Levis at No. 4: Buy
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Do the Indianapolis Colts really love Levis? That's the prevailing belief, according to ESPN's Miller.
"The Colts want Levis," one AFC scout said, per Miller. "The question is do they love him more than Stroud? I think they do, but that's a bold move.
Bringing Stroud into the conversation is warranted because the Texans might not take a quarterback at No. 2. The Arizona Cardinals also have the No. 3 selection up for grabs and have received plenty of interest, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.
Could the Colts be inclined to move up one spot to secure Stroud if he's available? Perhaps, and general manager Chris Ballard has challenged the notion that Indy is locked on to any quarterback.
"There's a misconception out there that we've targeted one player," Ballard told reporters on Friday.
However, I do believe that they're comfortable staying put and taking Levis instead. The reason is Levis' worth ethic and ability to run a pro-style scheme.
"The kid works his tail off, and he's an extremely intelligent person," Kentucky offensive coordinator and former Rams OC Liam Coen said, per The Athletic's Jeff Howe.
According to Coen, Levis utilized a very advanced playbook that included multiple check options on every play.
"Those were all things we asked him to do that we also asked Matthew Stafford to do," Coen said, per Howe. "That every NFL coordinator asks their quarterback to do."
As the Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator, new Colts head coach Shane Steichen watched Jalen Hurts go from being an overlooked second-round draft pick and Carson Wentz's backup to being a viable MVP candidate. Hurts got there by working hard and absorbing every facet of Steichen's offense.
This isn't to suggest that Levis will become the next Hurts, but his best attributes are likely ones that Indianapolis now values highly.
Raiders Willing to Move Up for a QB They 'Love': Buy
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The Las Vegas Raiders could be among the teams willing to acquire Arizona's pick to draft a quarterback. At least, that's the latest from ESPN's Dianna Russini.
"If the Raiders see a quarterback that they are in love with, they are willing to move up there and perhaps have some conversations to go get their guy," Russini said on Get Up.
But wait, Las Vegas just signed Jimmy Garoppolo to a three-year, $72.8 million contract, right? That's true, but I don't believe that the Raiders view Garoppolo as a true long-term option.
Garoppolo has experience playing under Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels and has played in two NFC title games. However, he also has an extensive injury history and has played just one complete season since arriving in the NFL in 2014. Garoppolo's contract also suggests that Las Vegas isn't sold on him as the answer.
The Raiders could release Garoppolo after this season and save $9.3 million off the 2024 cap.
The caveat, of course, is that Las Vegas would have to "love" the prospects who are still on the board at No. 3. A lot will hinge on what the Panthers and Texans do at the top of the draft, and it's highly unlikely that the Raiders would make a move before opening night.
If one of the Raiders' preferred quarterbacks is available at No. 3, it's not hard to envision them racing up to get him. If Las Vegas isn't sold on the remaining QB options, however, It will probably stay put and take the best defensive prospect it can get at No. 7.
There's 'No Way' That Bijan Robinson Falls out of Top 20: Sell
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Texas' Bijan Robinson is a special talent, the best running back in this draft class and the fourth-ranked overall prospect on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's draft board. However, in an age when running backs are rarely offensive centerpieces, it's fair to wonder just how highly Robinson will be drafted.
According to ESPN's Jordan Reid, there's virtually no chance that Robinson falls to the bottom third of Round 1.
"Every scout I've spoken with says there's no way that Robinson—a consensus top-five prospect who plays a devalued position—makes it outside the top 20," Reid wrote.
It's not hard to believe that Robinson will be a top-20 selection because his talent and his upside warrant that. However, it's difficult to envision the top 20 as an absolute floor for any running back, especially in this draft class.
This is perceived as a deep running back class, with 14 of the B/R Scouting Department's top 150 prospects playing the position. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are arguably the only team picking in the top 20 that doesn't have at least one established option at the position. After losing the likes of Tom Brady, Donovan Smith, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Cameron Brate this offseason, Tampa has other needs.
Why be the first team to pick at a deep position when positions like wide receiver, offensive tackle and defensive tackle are thinner? Given the relative value of running backs, some franchises will simply refuse to do it.
"He's special but not worth the investment," one executive said, per Reid. "Look at all of the teams that signed running backs to second contracts. It's not pretty, and many never ever see the end of the deal."
An early run on quarterbacks could further reduce the number of top-20 teams even pondering that option.
Could a team like the Eagles, Atlanta Falcons or Cardinals (after a trade down) flip the switch on Robinson early? Absolutely, but it wouldn't be a total shock to see him slide to a team like the Baltimore Ravens (No. 22), Dallas Cowboys (No. 26), Buffalo Bills (No. 27) or Cincinnati Bengals (No. 28).
49ers Are Fielding Trade Calls on Trey Lance: Buy
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The 49ers won't be targeting a quarterback early this year, and not simply because they don't have a first- or second-round selection. They traded up to take Trey Lance just two years ago, they just reached the NFC Championship Game with seventh-round pick Brock Purdy under center, and they recently added Sam Darnold as insurance.
However, there is a chance that San Francisco's quarterback room looks a bit different after the draft. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, San Francisco has taken trade calls regarding Lance.
"The conversations have been the result of SF fielding the calls, not making them, with teams aware that Brock Purdy is likely the future starter," Rapoport said on Twitter.
The idea that San Francisco is listening to offers is entirely plausible. Purdy played like a proven vet last season, going 7-1 (including playoffs) and posting a passer rating above 100 in both the regular season and the postseason.
Lance, meanwhile, has made just four starts and remains a relatively unknown commodity. It makes perfect sense for the 49ers to at least see what teams are willing to offer for the former third-overall pick.
Again, the 49ers aren't scheduled to pick before Round 3—though they have three third-rounders and could move up—and could be enticed by a strong draft-day trade offer. This is a team that should be firmly in title contention if Purdy has a successful recovery from offseason elbow surgery. Adding a top rookie prospect to the mix could help San Francisco tremendously.
If the 49ers don't receive a strong offer, they can simply do nothing, allowing Purdy and Lance to engage in a camp competition. It doesn't hurt to pick up the phone and listen, and there's no reason to believe that San Francisco is actively looking to offload Lance.
Things Could Get Very Complicated for the Jets' Pursuit of Aaron Rodgers: Buy
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This is more of a combination of reports than a singular hard rumor, but it paints a troubling picture for the New York Jets if Aaron Rodgers isn't traded before next Saturday.
Rodgers wants to play for the Jets, and New York wants to add him. However, The Green Bay Packers must execute a trade first, and the Jets and Packers are reportedly still disagreeing on trade compensation.
"[Green Bay] wants a premium package of draft picks in exchange for [Rodgers], presumably over multiple years," Fowler said Saturday on SportsCenter. "The Jets have just been unwilling at this point to go that far."
The problem, as ESPN's Schefter recently explained, is that Green Bay could sit on Rodgers if he isn't traded by Friday evening.
"The line of demarcation, the soft deadline, is next Friday night, picks 42 and 43," ESPN's Adam Schefter reported on SportsCenter Thursday. "Because if picks 42 and 43 come and go without Aaron Rodgers being traded to the New York Jets, then the wait for him to become a Jet could go on for an awful long time."
Teams generally value future draft picks less than those in the current cycle. If New York uses its two third-round selections instead of dealing them for Rodgers, working out a deal involving 2024 draft capital could become even more difficult for the Jets.
And if that happens, Green Bay will have no reason to rush into a trade. Rodgers is due a $58.3 million option bonus, but that doesn't have to be paid until the start of the regular season.
Hypothetically, the Packers would wait until August to move Rodgers—and in the meantime, dangle him to other quarterback-needy teams—creating an unfavorable situation for the Jets. Yes, Rodgers has previously played for offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and with wideout Allen Lazard, but him missing the bulk of New York's offseason program would be a huge problem.
If things get to that point, New York may no longer be interested.
Jets fans may be dreaming of making a Super Bowl run with Rodgers in 2023, but if a trade isn't completed by Friday, it simply might not happen.
'Strong Possibility' That DeAndre Hopkins Lands in Baltimore: Sell
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Rodgers isn't the only notable player who might be dealt over draft weekend. According to the MMQB's Albert Breer, the Cardinals have allowed wideout DeAndre Hopkins to speak with teams in hopes of facilitating a trade.
As mentioned on the Pat McAfee Show, sources indicate that Hopkins could land with the Baltimore Ravens.
"It's a strong possibility," Pacman Jones said.
While there's a chance that Hopkins does make his way to Baltimore—possibly in an effort to convince Lamar Jackson to sign his franchise-tag tender—it being a "strong" possibility feels unlikely.
For starters, Baltimore just gave Odell Beckham Jr. a one-year, $15 million deal that includes $13.8 million guaranteed. That was probably the Ravens' play to entice Jackson. Secondly, the Ravens have just $3.9 million in cap space available—pending Jackson's tag—and Hopkins has a $19.5 million base salary.
At this point, for the Ravens to seriously consider dealing for Hopkins, one of two things would have to happen—and maybe both: a) Baltimore would have to completely whiff on landing a quality receiver in the draft, or b) Arizona would have to agree to eat a large portion of Hopkins' salary.
The latter is reportedly unlikely.
"Teams I've talked to believe the Cardinals haven't really been willing to pay the salary," Fowler said on SportsCenter.
Baltimore might make a play for Hopkins after the draft or target him if he's released. However, this feels more like a case of the Cardinals trying to generate a trade market or Baltimore covertly selling to Jackson the idea that it's serious about upgrading its receiving corps.
*Cap and contract information via Spotrac.
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