Super-Early Grades for Anthony Volpe, Jordan Walker and MLB's Top 2023 Rookies
The top rookies in Major League Baseball have had only had a week to prove themselves, so the fair thing would be to give them more time before grading their performances.
But where's the fun in that?
While these are by no means final, we do have way-too-early grades for 10 rookies from around the league. These are basically our reactions to their first impressions, be they good, bad or somewhere in between.
The list consists of eight prospects from our preseason top-100 rankings, plus a hitter and pitcher who are making their stateside debuts after previously starring in Japan. With apologies to Colorado Rockies fans, we decided to skip over Ezequiel Tovar. He's in the majors less for his bat than his glove, and he just hasn't really gotten to show off yet.
Let's start with honorable mentions before moving on to the list.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 11
RHP Jhony Brito, New York Yankees
He took on a tough San Francisco Giants lineup in his major league debut and came away with five scoreless innings. Keep an eye on his changeup, which drew whiffs on half of the 22 swings against it.
3B Josh Jung, Texas Rangers
He struck out 39 times in only 102 plate appearances late in 2022 but also flashed power in hitting five home runs. So it goes thus far in 2023, though with less frequent K's and not one but two opposite-field homers
CF Garrett Mitchell, Milwaukee Brewers
Though this guy also struck out a bunch upon reaching the majors late last year, he also hit .311 and teased some real power. So, go figure he's now hitting .300 with three home runs, the latest of which was a walk-off job.
C Logan O'Hoppe, Los Angeles Angels
He doesn't have any walks yet and he's 0-for-3 throwing out runners, but any catcher who can hit the ball at an average of 93.1 mph while batting .429 with runners in scoring position demands attention anyway.
CF James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers
He's not the best rookie hitter the Dodgers have—stay tuned—but he has three extra-base hits to go with his five walks, and the early readings on his speed and defense look good.
LF Masataka Yoshida, Boston Red Sox
2 of 11
Age: 29
2023 Stats: 7 G, 32 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .250 AVG, .344 OBP, .393 SLG
There's no way to quantity such things, so you'll just have to take our word for it that the prettiest swing of 2023 belongs to Masataka Yoshida.
Here it is, in which he takes a high and slightly outside 96 mph fastball and whacks a 104.6 mph fly ball over the Green Monster for his first major league home run:
Beautiful. Absolutely beautiful. And that Yoshida would be capable of such a swing ought to track with anyone who watched him go off for a 1.258 OPS in the World Baseball Classic.
The Boston Red Sox can also be pleased with Yoshida's approach. He's seen 54 pitches outside the strike zone and offered at only 10 of them, and he's likewise swung through just nine of 118 total pitches.
As for what's not great, Yoshida is 1-for-10 against breaking and offspeed pitches, and his overall contact quality leaves much to be desired, specifically regarding what's the second-lowest launch angle in the league. His average and slugging percentage can only go so high if he doesn't make adjustments there.
Grade: B
RHP Kodai Senga, New York Mets
3 of 11
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 1 GS, 5.1 IP, 3 H (0 HR), 8 K, 3 BB, 1.69 ERA
As to the other Japanese star who's in the early days of his major league career, Kodai Senga sure put on a show in his debut for the New York Mets.
In taking on the Miami Marlins on Sunday, Senga dazzled mostly with the help of a "ghost fork" forkball that was legendary even before he threw it for the Mets. It was responsible for all eight of his strikeouts, each of which was of the swinging variety.
Need more evidence that the ghost fork had the Marlins spooked? How about this: Their 14 swings against it produced nine whiffs and two balls in play, neither of which cracked 90 mph.
This is not to say there weren't challenges for Senga. He endured a 36-pitch first inning and ended up with an unspectacular 60.2 strike percentage.
Still, only one of his walks came on a pitch that really got away from him, and his command of his fastball, which sat at 96.8 mph, was generally good. Only five of the 32 he threw landed beyond the heart and shadow of the strike zone.
Grade: A
RHP Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
4 of 11
Age: 24
2023 Stats: 1 GS, 4.2 IP, 6 H (0 HR), 5 K, 3 BB, 7.71 ERA
Preseason Rank: No. 30
Given that it was against a Detroit Tigers team that hasn't hit a lick since the start of last season, Hunter Brown's 2023 debut was teed up as a cakewalk.
That it didn't prove to be as such is largely on Brown's shaky fastball command. He missed the zone with 15 of the 40 that he threw, and about half of those missed badly.
On the plus side, Brown's trademark curveball did its job. The 12 swings he induced on it resulted in three whiffs and two balls in play. And had he gotten a favorable call on Kerry Carpenter's check swing, his hook would have allowed him to escape the fifth inning.
There was also some bad luck at play on the six hits that Brown gave up. All six were mere singles, with one coming on a classic Baltimore chop and another on a jam shot that didn't make it to the outfield.
So while nobody can say his 2023 debut was a good one, it was still possible to see how Brown could be a sort of hybrid of Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez.
Grade: C
2B Miguel Vargas, Los Angeles Dodgers
5 of 11
Age: 23
2023 Stats: 5 G, 18 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, .373 AVG, .722 OBP, .500 SLG
Preseason Rank: No. 28
Make Miguel Vargas swing the bat. He dares you. He double-dog dares you.
Not swinging isn't a virtue in all circumstances, but it is when a pitcher misses the strike zone. It's therefore a good thing that that Vargas has swung at only four of the 50 pitches he's seen outside the zone, helping to result in a league-high nine walks.
The Los Angeles Dodgers can pat themselves on the back for instructing Vargas not to swing at all as he was recovering from a broken pinkie in spring training. They may not have intended him to become a master of zone discipline in the process, but, hey, they'll take it.
As to what's happened when Vargas has taken the bat off his shoulder, just five of his 23 swings have come up empty and he's averaged 97.1 mph on the five balls he's put in play. Good things, in other words.
Where the jury is still out is on whether Vargas, who's never been known for his defense, can sustain as a viable regular at second base. But just where his offense is concerned, his start to 2023 is as impressive as it gets.
Grade: A
1B Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
6 of 11
Age: 23
2023 Stats: 7 G, 26 PA, 1 HR, 0 SB, .130 AVG, .192 OBP, .304 SLG
Preseason Rank: No. 25
The best word to describe Triston Casas' start to the 2023 season is "weird."
Starting with the good stuff, both his average launch angle and his exit velocity are up from his 27-game debut at the end of last season. On these notes, the 6'4", 252-pounder's first home run of 2023 is out of the way.
Casas' approach has nonetheless been out of whack. After chasing just 21 percent of the pitches he saw outside the zone late in 2022, he's offering at 32.7 percent so far in 2023. As he's 0-for-6 when he does, it's not working.
And despite the previously mentioned metrics, Casas hasn't actually hit that many balls well. He's hit most of his balls either straight up or straight down, with only two having better than a 50 percent chance of going for a hit.
The general picture is of a guy who hasn't yet found his comfort zone at the plate. And from the outside looking in, it sure looked like he was trying to overcompensate when he made a mental error in the field on Wednesday.
Grade: D
SS Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees
7 of 11
Age: 21
2023 Stats: 6 G, 21 PA, 0 HR, 3 SB, .176 AVG, .333 OBP, .176 SLG
Preseason Rank: No. 9
If nothing else, Anthony Volpe was quick to get several big firsts out of the way.
In the New York Yankees opener, the New Jerseyite walked in his first plate appearance and promptly stole his first base. In his second game, he picked up his first hit and eventually added another for his first multi-hit game.
Even if he's not on Vargas' level, Volpe's approach has been his best asset. He has four free passes and has offered at only 11 of the 48 pitches he's seen outside the zone. Restrict it to just breaking and off-speed pitches, and it's 5-for-24.
As Volpe isn't actually that fast of a runner, you can chalk his three steals up to baserunning acumen as much as anything else. And despite some lingering questions about his ability to stick there, he's held his own at short so far.
Now, if we could just see Volpe put his swings to better use. Even setting aside that he's struck out six times, he's had only two hard-hit balls and his loudest contact was on a medium-deep fly ball.
Grade: B
LF Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
8 of 11
Age: 22
2023 Stats: 7 G, 27 PA, 1 HR, 3 SB, .222 AVG, .222 OBP, .370 SLG
Preseason Rank: No. 8
There's more than one reason why the Arizona Diamondbacks committed $111 million to Corbin Carroll in March, but numero uno is the fact that he can fly.
His average sprint of 30 feet per second is actually a step down from where he was late in 2022, but it hasn't stopped him from wreaking havoc with his speed. He's had seven opportunities for stolen bases and made good by going 3-for-3 in his attempts.
Not to be overlooked are the other instances where Carroll's speed has come into play. He's gone first-to-third on singles on both chances he's gotten, and he even seemed to short-circuit Mookie Betts in successfully stretching a single into a double.
As to other things that shouldn't be overlooked, it's less awesome that Carroll has six strikeouts and no walks. It especially hurts that he's missed on seven of eight swings against offspeed pitches.
It's comforting, however, that Carroll is not guilty of aggressively expanding the zone and that he is guilty of punishing baseballs. He's averaged 91.6 mph on his batted balls, with a 42.9 hard-hit percentage.
Grade: B
RHP Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles
9 of 11
Age: 23
2023 Stats: 1 GS, 5.0 IP, 4 H (0 HR), 5 K, 1 BB, 3.60 ERA
Preseason Rank: No. 6
Grayson Rodriguez had a tough assignment for his major league debut on Wednesday. All he had to do was go toe-to-toe with two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom.
The record will show that deGrom won, but he might want a rematch about as much as Apollo Creed after his first bout with Rocky Balboa. Texas Rangers hitters didn't do much with Rodriguez after a 30-pitch first inning in which he allowed two runs.
His key weapon was his fastball, which topped out at 98.2 mph and found the strike zone 30 times out of 41 total pitches. It drew eight whiffs, basically all of which were in the top half of the zone.
One pitch that really didn't make as much of a difference was Rodriguez's changeup, which was a bummer. It's supposed to be one of the best pitches possessed by any prospect, notably courtesy of its screwball-like action.
But in getting four whiffs on eight swings against it, Rodriguez did show that his slider has swing-and-miss potential. The trick will be getting hitters to offer at it more often, which will come down to more consistently throwing it in places that tempt them. Say, here and not here.
Grade: B
RF Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals
10 of 11
Age: 20
2023 Stats: 6 G, 25 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .333 AVG, .360 OBP, .542 SLG
Preseason Rank: No. 4
A 6'6", 245-pound right fielder? Sounds like a crusher of baseballs. And in this case, he is a crusher of baseballs.
Allow Jordan Walker to demonstrate with his first career home run, on which he turned on an 81 mph slider and sent out a 104.2 mph laser into the left-field seats:
That isn't even the hardest ball Walker has hit with the St. Louis Cardinals, but it's emblematic of how he's been hitting the ball in general. Exactly 61.9 percent of his batted balls have been at least 95 mph off the bat, well above the MLB average of 39.1 percent.
As for the bad stuff, Walker is already last among qualified defenders with minus-four defensive runs saved. At least this ball probably should have been caught. Further, he's walked zero times and undercut the loudness of his contact by hitting two-thirds of his batted balls on the ground.
Still, this is a converted infielder who skipped past Triple-A even though he's still only 20 years old. Walker is doing a heck of a lot better than anyone else might under those circumstances.
Grade: B
3B Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
11 of 11
Age: 21
2023 Stats: 5 G, 22 PA, 1 HR, 0 SB, .125 AVG, .364 OBP, .313 SLG
Preseason Rank: No. 2
Gunnar Henderson had the highest hard-hit rate in the majors after he made his debut last year, so it's no surprise that he's still raking in 2023.
His hard-hit rate may be down, but the seven balls he's put in play bear an average exit velocity of 95.1 mph. The 106.6 mph, 408-foot home run he hit on Monday is one of them.
As to other matters, Henderson has been a bit too casual (see here and here) and careless on defense, and there's good and bad news regarding his approach at the plate. To the former, he's walked six times. To the latter, he's struck out nine times.
But if Henderson is guilty of anything, it's only being too passive. It's great that he's chased only 11 of 54 pitches out of the zone, but even Vargas is hacking at pitches in the zone more often. He's even let a few go by down the middle, including this fat cutter from Kenley Jansen.
As "swing at more strikes" is really the only advice he needs, it suffices to say Henderson's slow start isn't worth panicking about.
Grade: C
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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