MLB Free Agency 2023: Ranking Best Potential Steals Still on the Market
There are still 76 players looking for work on Major League Baseball's free-agent market. It's too bad that most of them aren't especially appealing.
But now that we've been mean for a moment, let's be nice for a while and rank 10 still-available free agents who could be steals.
Several of these guys are holdovers from the last time we looked for sneaky-good free agents in December, but it's mostly a new crop. What they have in common either way is something—or even multiple somethings—that points to their potentially being valuable contributors in 2023.
We've ranked players according to their potential impact as regular contributors, resulting in relief pitchers being at the bottom with position players and the list's lone starting pitcher at the top.
10. RHP Matt Wisler
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Age: 30
2022 Stats: 39 G, 5 GS, 10 GF, 44.0 IP, 30 H (6 HR), 35 K, 14 BB, 2.25 ERA
There's been nothing but crickets in Matt Wisler's corner of the open market since September, when he elected free agency after the Tampa Bay Rays designated him for assignment.
Which is odd, really. It's not as if he's aged out of relevancy, and one wouldn't think that he had pitched his way out of it either. His 66 appearances for the Rays in 2021 and 2022 yielded a sparkling 2.21 ERA.
Of course, Wisler was sidelined for over a month last season with a neck strain. Further, his strikeouts-per-nine rate with the Rays plummeted from 11.0 in '21 to just 7.2 in '22. That tracked with a dip in his velocity.
Still, how much Wisler truly needs velocity is subject for debate. He's basically had no use for his fastball in the last two seasons, instead going to his slider for more than 90 percent of his pitches. It remained effective in 2022, holding hitters to a .188 average.
If not for high-leverage work in the late innings, such a pitcher can surely still be of great use in a middle-relief role. A handful of would-be contenders can still use one of those.
Potential Fits: Angels, Rangers, Cubs
9. LHP Will Smith
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Age: 33
2022 Stats: 65 G, 18 GF, 59.0 IP, 58 H (9 HR), 65 K, 25 BB, 3.97 ERA
It was barely more than three years ago that Atlanta signed Will Smith to a $40 million contract, which eventually saw him get the final out in the 2021 World Series.
Smith struggled enough in 2022, however, that Atlanta merely took back Jake Odorizzi in a trade that sent the lefty to the Houston Astros in August. He was technically a part of another World Series winner as a result, but not really. He didn't pitch at all in the playoffs.
All the same, Smith exited the regular season with some momentum. After posting a 4.38 ERA for Atlanta, he dropped it to 3.27 in 24 outings with Houston.
Small sample size and all, yet also reflective of the tweaks that the Astros had Smith make. Those mainly concerned his slider, as he upped its usage (46.3 to 52.4 percent) and altered its location pattern (see before and after). Batters went 9-for-41 against it down the stretch, with only one of those hits leaving the yard.
To be sure, Smith's days as an effective closer are likely over. But he's at least good enough for middle relief, and possibly for late relief if a team can identify more tweaks worth making.
Potential Fits: Mariners, Mets, Guardians
8. RHP Michael Fulmer
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Age: 29
2022 Stats: 67 G, 11 GF, 63.2 IP, 59 H (4 HR), 61 K, 28 BB, 3.39 ERA
Michael Fulmer was on that list that we put out in December and, yeah, we still like him.
There's almost certainly no going back to Fulmer's glory days. He was the American League Rookie of the Year in 2016 and then an All-Star in 2017. But he was a hard-throwing starter in those days. Now he's a kinda-hard-throwing reliever.
Fulmer's appeal, though, still traces back to the platoon splits that he had while pitching for the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins in 2022:
- vs. RHB: 167 PA, .544 OPS
- vs. LHB: 109 PA, .930 OPS
Some context: That .544 OPS against right-handed batters was the 12th-best mark among righty pitchers who had at least 160 matchups of the sort. Slightly behind him was Justin Verlander, proving that it is indeed possible to put the two hurlers in the same sentence.
Adam Ottavino remains the model for what Fulmer might be, in that he could play a key role in high-leverage spots so long as he mostly has the platoon advantage within them.
Potential Fits: Yankees, Brewers, Giants
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7. LHP Matt Moore
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Age: 33
2022 Stats: 63 G, 18 GF, 74.0 IP, 49 H (3 HR), 83 K, 38 BB, 1.95 ERA
It will never not be a fun fact that Matt Moore went into 2012 ranked as MLB.com's No. 1 prospect over Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. Some take, that.
A more relevant fun fact about Moore is that he had the lowest ERA of any left-handed pitcher who logged at least 70 innings in 2022. As for how he made it happen, it was a simple matter of throwing his curveball a whole lot:
His curve was effective, holding hitters to a .217 average. But it may have more so been effective in taking some heat (figuratively, that is) off his fastball, against which batters hit just .179.
Moore also defied the usual expectations for left-handed relievers by performing better against right-handed batters and by being good for more than just one, two or even three outs. He got at least four outs 20 times last year.
Factoring in that Moore also excelled under pressure in holding hitters to a .325 OPS in high-leverage situations, he looks like a veritable Swiss Army reliever who could do a little bit of anything for a contender in 2023.
Potential Fits: Astros, Dodgers, Cardinals
6. 1B/DH Luke Voit
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Age: 31
2022 Stats: 135 G, 568 PA, 22 HR, 1 SB, .226 AVG, .308 OBP, .402 SLG
Luke Voit was an elite hitter for the New York Yankees from 2018 to 2020, putting up a .915 OPS and 57 home runs in 213 games.
Voit has...well, not been that guy over the last two seasons. Injuries have played a role, particularly as he was limited to 68 games in 2021 by knee and oblique problems. But he also just hasn't hit, especially through the lenses of a .230 average and .314 on-base percentage.
Yet if Voit is deserving of the benefit of the doubt in any sense, it's that being part of the Juan Soto trade between the San Diego Padres, a contender, and Washington Nationals, definitely not a contender, seemed to suck the life out of him. He went from having a respectable .733 OPS with San Diego to a .676 OPS with Washington the rest of the way.
Otherwise, there's the hope that resides in how the 6'3", 255-pounder remained a capable crusher of baseballs in 2022. His barrel rate was in the 94th percentile alongside Eugenio Suárez and Teoscar Hernández.
If only on a minor league deal, a guy with this kind of danger in his bat deserves a shot to earn a job at first base and/or designated hitter somewhere.
Potential Fits: Giants, Twins, Rays
5. DH Franmil Reyes
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Age: 27
2022 Stats: 118 G, 473 PA, 14 HR, 2 SB, .221 AVG, .273 OBP, .365 SLG
Franmil Reyes was one of the more dangerous sluggers in baseball from 2018 to 2021, compiling a 162-game average of 36 home runs.
Then 2022 happened, and the blame unfortunately starts with the player. As reported by Zack Meisel of The Athletic, Reyes came out of the 2021-22 lockout having not faced any live pitching in the interim and out of shape to boot.
What only made matters worse for Reyes was the new tactic that pitchers tried on him. It involved throwing him more breaking balls, as his percentage of such pitches shot up to a career high and resulted in a .190 average and a 50.8 whiff percentage.
It's a good thing, then, that Reyes is still just 27 years old and very much capable of hitting the ball hard even in the worst of times. That was the case last year as he landed in the 92nd percentile for exit velocity, which is where Bryce Harper and Julio Rodríguez also landed.
As he's likely always going to be a high-strikeout, no-speed player, Reyes' power simply has to work for him to be of any use. All the same, his power is more than good enough to make him worth a flier for a DH opening.
Potential Fits: Rangers, Mariners, Atlanta
4. LF/RF Robbie Grossman
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Age: 33
2022 Stats: 129 G, 477 PA, 7 HR, 6 SB, .209 AVG, .310 OBP, .311 SLG
Robbie Grossman didn't have a good season in 2022, but it definitely got better after the Detroit Tigers traded him to Atlanta.
His OPS with the latter was 80 points higher than it had been with the former. That happened largely because Atlanta was able to make some fixes to the switch-hitter's swing from the left side, which manifested in two notable ways.
For one, Grossman's launch angle from the left side increased from 20.9 to 25.6 degrees. For two, his spray pattern went from being all over the place to concentrated to his pull side to the right of center field.
The downside of the latter is that it made Grossman even more vulnerable to shifts, which he saw on 81.9 percent of the pitches he faced. The thing to keep in mind, though, is that that figure is about to drop to zero courtesy of the new regulations on shifts.
Grossman is worth a look just on these merits. And then there's the possibility that a team could simply convince him to stop switch-hitting and hit solely from the right side, where he has a solid .790 OPS for his career. Either way, he could be a good get as a regular outfielder.
Potential Fits: Rangers, White Sox, Phillies
3. RF/LF Kole Calhoun
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Age: 35
2022 Stats: 125 G, 424 PA, 12 HR, 3 SB, .196 AVG, .257 OBP, .330 SLG
Save for the fact that he saw more action than he had since 2019, last year was not a good experience for Kole Calhoun.
Per his 67 OPS+, Calhoun's offensive performance was his worst since he became a full-time player in 2013. That mark also qualified him as the seventh-worst hitter of 2022 among those who took at least 400 trips to the plate.
But as bad as Calhoun's results were, his process wasn't all bad. There's no excusing his career-worst 32.1 strikeout percentage, but he at least posted an average exit velocity in the 82nd percentile and a hard-hit rate in the 89th percentile.
One big reason Calhoun's solid contact didn't yield better results: the shift. He was shifted on 93.4 percent of the time, and that cost him on batted balls like this one, this one, this one, ad infinitum.
Mercifully, Calhoun won't have to worry about that anymore in 2023. That makes for at least one cue for outfield-needy teams to give him a look, if only for a platoon role against right-handers.
Potential Fits: Mariners, Marlins, Dodgers
2. LF David Peralta
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Age: 35
2022 Stats: 134 G, 490 PA, 12 HR, 1 SB, .251 AVG, .316 OBP, .415 SLG
Like Fulmer, David Peralta is yet another holdover from our December list. Also like Fulmer, what appealed about him then hasn't changed.
Above all, the season the lefty swinger had in 2022 looks a tad better if you remove the 73 plate appearances that he made against left-handers. As it usually does, the platoon advantage agreed with Peralta as he put up a solid .778 OPS and 11 of his 12 home runs against right-handed pitching.
The new shift regulations are still another reason for teams to give Peralta a look. Because even if last year's shift rate of 42.9 percent was relatively paltry by leaguewide standards for left-handed batters, those shifts still cost him hits. For evidence, see here, here and here.
Peralta also seems to still have gas left in the tank defensively. He may not win another Gold Glove to go with the one he claimed in 2019, but last year saw him finish squarely in above-average territory with five OAA.
It's a wonder that nobody has signed Peralta to work in a platoon role, especially knowing there's always more work for platoon lefties than platoon righties.
Potential Fits: Yankees, Marlins, Orioles
1. RHP Michael Wacha
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Age: 31
2022 Stats: 23 GS, 127.1 IP, 111 H (18 HR), 104 K, 31 BB, 3.32 ERA
In the end, here's where we find yet another December holdover in the person of Michael Wacha.
Unlike the other guys on this list, it's going to take some decent money to sign the veteran right-hander. He's seeking a two-year deal worth $30 million, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, which tracks with what Nathan Eovaldi and José Quintana got in two-year pacts with new teams.
It's not an unreasonable ask after the season Wacha had in 2022. Back and shoulder injuries did limit his time on the mound, but he was 27 percent better than the average pitcher when he was on it. As it usually is, his changeup was in fine form in holding hitters to a .170 average.
What could really take Wacha to the next level is if he finds the right fastball mix to work in tandem with his changeup. That may be as simple as scrapping his four-seamer, which has been nothing but trouble for him in recent years.
In any case, Wacha represents the last good chance for teams to add a capable starter off the free-agent market.
Potential Fits: Orioles, Cardinals, White Sox
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
