Rose Bowl 2012: Why the Wisconsin Badgers Will Give Oregon Yet Another BCS Loss

Big Ten Bowl Preview Extravaganza – Part 10 of 10

The Rose Bowl may not have two teams playing for a national championship, but both Oregon and Wisconsin are pleased to be here following seasons with two close losses apiece.

The Badgers and Ducks also have the distinction of losing the last two Rose Bowl games—Wisconsin to TCU last year and Oregon to Ohio State the year before.

Thus, both teams are hungry for Rose Bowl success. Wisconsin will likely be playing one final game with superstar RB Montee Ball, so the time to win needs to be now for the Badgers. Wisconsin brings an explosive offense into this game with great balance. Although, Wisconsin would like to run the ball successfully to set up the pass.

Meanwhile, Oregon comes into this game with an offense that can match the explosiveness of Wisconsin. The Ducks have a different style, though, speeding up the pace of the game and playing at the edges of the field to force defenders into one-on-one situations. Oregon and Wisconsin may bring a contrast of styles, but both teams will score a lot of points.

Let's take a look at the five keys to Badger success in Pasadena this year.

No. 1: Dominate Time of Possession With James White and Montee Ball

Wisconsin has followed the same formula for years under offensive coordinator Paul Chryst: Run the ball behind a bruising zone blocking line and open a passing game when the defense stacks too many men in the box.

This will be Chryst's last game before taking over as head coach at Pittsburgh, but do not expect any deviation from the pattern that got Wisconsin to two straight Rose Bowl games.

RB Montee Ball shared carries with RB James White last season, but Ball took over the offense this season with 1,759 rushing yards and 38 total touchdowns (32 rushing). Ball will likely break the longtime touchdown record of Barry Sanders in this game with two more touchdowns— although Oregon will do everything they can to slow Ball down.

When Ball needs a breather, James White is more than adequate—having 683 yards and six touchdowns in limited playing time. Both of these backs will challenge the smaller Oregon defenders to make gang tackles and slow the Wisconsin offense.

Oregon likely has learned after failures against LSU and Ohio State what to do on defense, but Wisconsin needs to impose the running game plan to play the game on their terms to win.

No. 2: Fool The Ducks With Misdirection

As mentioned above, the Ducks will have learned from losses to more physical teams in the SEC and Big Ten in the past. Expect Oregon to track the ball well in this game and make good tackles against the Badgers.

However, that will open Oregon to one big weakness that Wisconsin needs to exploit: misdirection and reverse plays.

On multiple occasions this season, Russell Wilson ran screen plays or throwback plays where Montee Ball got involved in the passing game. In Oregon plays aggressively and overpursues on these plays, Wisconsin will burn the Ducks for big gains.

The Badgers should pound away at the Ducks until the Oregon defense submits, but mixing in the misdirection and screen game could make all the difference against an aggressive defense like Oregon.

Look for some exciting choices before Paul Chryst moves on to Pittsburgh. 

No. 3: Keep Playing Fundamental Defense Even When Tired

Oregon is well known for upping the pace of games and snapping the ball with 15-25 seconds left on the play clock. This strategy prevents defenses from substituting in players and allows Oregon to adjust the play at the line to counter the defensive formation.

Wisconsin will need to follow the blueprint of Ohio State and the SEC teams that have beaten Oregon. They need to stay in a base defense look to not tip their hand to the Oregon play-callers.

This also requires that Wisconsin play solid fundamental defense at all times—even toward the end of drives when Oregon has worn the defenders down. When the defensive line is not getting pressure on the Ducks in the backfield, the talented linebacker corps need to step up and make stops against RB LaMichael James to slow the Ducks offense.

Most importantly, Wisconsin cannot afford to get burned in the secondary like they did in late game situations against Michigan State and Ohio State.

QB Darron Thomas has great efficiency (61.4 percent completion rate to go with 30 touchdowns and only six interceptions), that pales only in comparison to the likes of Russell Wilson (72.5 percent completions with 31 touchdowns and three interceptions), so Thomas is capable of throwing down the field if Wisconsin makes coverage mistakes.

Those lapses in judgement cannot happen. If they do, Oregon will run away with the scoring spree. 

No. 4: Get Better Pressure and Gap Filling From The Defensive Line

One difference in Oregon's last handful of losses has been losing the battle at the line of scrimmage against bigger defensive lines. While Wisconsin may have bigger athletes than Oregon in the trenches, the Badger defensive front has not been dominant or highly athletic this season.

Oregon should be able to open holes for LaMichael James to get into the second level of the defense. Wisconsin has to stop this to be successful.

Just like Montee Ball, once LaMichael James gets rolling he is hard to stop. James is also highly elusive if he gets to dictate how a linebacker will have to tackle him. Wisconsin LB Mike Taylor and LB Chris Borland led the Big Ten in tackles this season and will need to fill the holes that the defensive line allows to open or else risk giving up big runs.

The fewer of these holes that need to be covered, the better.

Wisconsin may need its best effort from the defensive line to slow down the Ducks and stay in striking range. Wisconsin will score points in bunches, but the defense will need to stop Oregon a few times as well to leave Pasadena with the trophy.

No. 5: Avoid Special Teams Miscues

Both teams have been ridiculously efficient at not turning the ball over with the offense, which has helped each of these teams win conference championships. Although the defenses may generate a turnover in this game, the best opportunities for game breaking plays will likely come when the special teams units are on the field.

Chip Kelly has gone for fake kicks before in big games, and Wisconsin will need its return teams to be prepared for any such shenanigans in this game. Additionally, Wisconsin cannot afford to give Oregon extra possessions by missing kicks or turning the ball over on special teams plays.

Oregon also has slightly faster return specialists that need to be contained on returns. If Oregon scores a touchdown on a special teams play, the odds of Wisconsin winning the Rose Bowl drop significantly. 

Game Prediction

Unlike the last two Rose Bowl games, these teams will not be contained by each other's defenses.

The points will come fast throughout the game as both defenses struggle to get off the field. Oregon will grab an early lead, but will begin to wear down as Wisconsin's drives get longer and longer throughout the course of the game.

The Badgers defense will make a crucial stop late in the fourth quarter when trailing by a touchdown to give Russell Wilson and Montee Ball a chance to win the game.

This time, the Badgers will be the team shocking the opposition by punching in the touchdown and going for the two-point conversion again this year. Unlike the failure against TCU, Wisconsin will get the two-point conversion and bring home the Rose Bowl trophy to Madison with a dramatic victory.

Wisconsin 45, Oregon 44

David Fitzgerald II is a Big Ten Football Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.  Follow him on Twitter for new article updates @BuckeyeFitzy