College Football Picks Week 5: Predictions and Odds for Top 25 Schedule
The Clemson Tigers have one of the toughest schedules of any ranked team during the first half of the 2022 college football season.
Clemson survived a double-overtime battle with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Saturday and now it plays host to the NC State Wolfpack in the marquee matchup of Week 5.
Dabo Swinney's side carries the advantage of playing at home, instead of on the road, on Saturday night and it has extra motivation to avenge one of its three losses from a year ago.
The Tigers are a seven-point favorite for the second straight week. That number is much lower than the spreads that have been in favor of Clemson over the last few years.
Clemson outscored its two home opponents by an 83-32 score and it has six double-digit home wins dating back to the start of last season.
While Clemson has an opportunity to reinforce its spot atop the ACC, a few teams in the SEC have a chance to prove their worth in Week 5.
The Ole Miss Rebels come into their home clash with the Kentucky Wildcats as the 14th-ranked side in the FBS, but they reached that point through a weak schedule that featured one power-five team.
Lane Kiffin's team has its first of many chances to showcase what it is capable of at home on Saturday, but it must be wary of a Kentucky team that already has a road win over a Top 25 foe.
Week 5 Schedule and Odds
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Thursday, September 29
Utah State at No. 19 BYU (-24) (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Friday, September 30
No. 15 Washington (-2.5) at UCLA (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Saturday, October 1
No. 4 Michigan (-10.5) at Iowa (noon ET, Fox)
No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss (-6.5) (noon ET, ESPN)
No. 18 Oklahoma (-4.5) at TCU (noon ET, ABC)
Purdue at No. 21 Minnesota (-10) (noon ET, ESPN2)
Texas Tech at No. 25 Kansas State *-7) (noon ET, ESPN+)
Oregon State at No. 12 Utah (-11) (2 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)
No. 2 Alabama (-15.5) at No. 20 Arkansas (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Rutgers at No. 3 Ohio State (-41.5) (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN)
No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 16 Baylor (-2.5) (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
Northwestern at No. 11 Penn State (-25) (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
No. 22 Wake Forest at No. 23 Florida State (-6) (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
No. 17 Texas A&M at Mississippi State (-2.5) (4 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
No. 1 Georgia (-27.5) at Missouri (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
No. 10 NC State at No. 5 Clemson (-7) (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Georgia Tech at No. 24 Pittsburgh (-20) (8 p.m. ET, ACC Network)
Arizona State at No. 6 USC (-24) (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Stanford at No. 13 Oregon (-16) (11 p.m. ET, FS1)
No. 10 NC State at No. 5 Clemson (-7)
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Clemson answered a few questions with its double-overtime triumph over Wake Forest.
The Tigers offense put up 51 points with D.J. Uiagalelei leading the charge, and they proved they could win against an emerging foe in the ACC.
The quarterback was the topic of skepticism after Week 1 because the Clemson offense looked sluggish in the first half of its win over Georgia Tech.
However, Uiagalelei answered the critics with a 371-yard, five-touchdown performance against Wake Forest. He has 1,033 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and one interception in 2022.
The progression of Clemson's quarterback is important for the clash against NC State since the Wolfpack have a dynamic signal-caller of their own in Devin Leary.
The 23-year-old has 890 passing yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions. He threw for 3,433 yards last season.
NC State's offense used its last three games to gear up for the challenge posed by Clemson. The Wolfpack defense held UConn, Texas Tech and Charleston Southern to 27 combined points. That's a nice total, but none of those offenses come close to matching what Clemson can do.
The Wolfpack need to win on Saturday through their offense, and they may face a Clemson defense that is susceptible to conceding points since Wake posted 45 points in Week 4.
The Tigers' defense may be motivated to produce a better showing at home, a place where it has held seven of its last eight opponents to 20 points or fewer. Wake Forest was the only team to go over 20 points in that span.
If the Clemson home defense shows up, the Tigers should be able to break away and avoid a back-and-forth affair between Uiagalelei and Leary.
No. 7 Kentucky (+6.5) at No. 14 Ole Miss
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Ole Miss is one of the biggest unknowns inside the AP Top 25.
Lane Kiffin's side is 4-0, but it has wins over Troy, Central Arkansas, Georgia Tech and Tulsa. The Power Five squad in that list of opponents, the Yellow Jackets, is getting ready to move on from its head coach.
Ole Miss further confirmed that we just do not know what it's capable of when it beat Tulsa by eight points at home in Week 4. That could have been the prototypical look-ahead spot for the Rebels with Kentucky coming to Oxford, Mississippi on Saturday.
Kentucky is more of a known quantity because it went into "The Swamp" and defeated Florida in Week 2. The Wildcats contained Anthony Richardson and held the Gators to 16 points.
Kentucky has held three of its four opponents under 20 points. Northern Illinois scored 23 points on the Wildcats last week, but nine of those came in garbage time in the fourth quarter.
Will Levis led the Wildcats to three 30-point games and 26 points in Gainesville, Florida. All of those performances came without starting running back Chris Rodriguez, who will return to the field on Saturday after a suspension kept him out for September.
Rodriguez ran for 1,378 yards in 2021 and he had five 100-yard games in SEC play last season.
Ole Miss can try to match Kentucky in ground production. The Rebels are averaging 280.8 yards per game on the ground.
Kentucky could slow down Quinshon Judkins and the Ole Miss rushing attack. The Wildcats averaged 108.3 rushing yards allowed per game in September.
They have been more successful through the air as well. Levis comes into Saturday with 488 more passing yards and five more passing touchdowns than Jaxson Dart.
Rodriguez's return, Levis' better numbers through the air and one SEC road win already this season could help Kentucky not only cover but also win outright in Oxford. That would confirm the Wildcats' status as the second-best team in the SEC East behind Georgia.
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