7 Bold Predictions for the 2022 MLB Playoffs

The 2022 MLB playoff bracket probably won't be set in stone until the final day of the regular season (Wednesday, Oct. 5), but we're already coming in hot with seven bold predictions on how the postseason will play out.

There are no internal contradictions with these predictions, so it is possible for all of them to come true.

And with all seven, our goal was to make bold, "non-negative" predictions. Granted, Atlanta making the World Series might feel like a negative to a lot of fans, but by non-negative, we mean nothing like "Yankees get swept out of the ALDS" or "Clayton Kershaw gets shelled in every appearance."

Only good vibes in this collection of unlikely but feasible prognostications.

Predictions are presented in no particular order, but we will start out with the man who has dominated headlines all season long.

Aaron Judge Breaks MLB's All-Time Single-Season HR Record (Including Postseason)

Aaron Judge (Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 20: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees reacts in the dugout after hitting his 60th home run of the season in the ninth inning during the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, September 20, 2022 in New York, New York. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

To be clear, it's the same record with which you're already familiar.

When Barry Bonds hit 73 home runs in 2001, the San Francisco Giants missed the postseason. Same goes for the St. Louis Cardinals in 1998 and 1999 when Mark McGwire hit 70 and 65, respectively. And while the Chicago Cubs did make the playoffs in one of the three seasons that Sammy Sosa eclipsed 60, he did not homer while they were swept out of the 1998 NLDS.

Thus, the record is 73, and the only change near the top of the leaderboard is that Roger Maris' 61 becomes 62, as he homered in Game 3 of the 1961 World Series.

And if that 73 is already marked by an asterisk in the record book in the eyes of most baseball fans, maybe Aaron Judge can change it to an "including postseason" asterisk as opposed to an "almost certainly used all of the steroids" asterisk.

Even so, Judge is nowhere close to that record. To get there, he probably needs to finish the regular season at 65 (doable) before hitting nine more in the playoffs (feasible, though probably only if the Yankees reach the World Series).

But that's what makes it a bold prediction.

For what it's worth, here are Judge's year-to-date home run numbers by potential postseason opponent:

• Six in 78 plate appearances vs. Tampa Bay
• Three in 23 PA vs. Seattle
• Three in 71 PA vs. Toronto
• Two in 31 PA vs. Houston
• Two in 22 PA vs. Cleveland
• Three in 18 PA vs. New York Mets
• Zero in 15 PA vs. St. Louis

Someone Pitches a Complete-Game Shutout

Los Angeles' Tyler Anderson (Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 20: Tyler Anderson #31 of the Los Angeles Dodgers delivers a pitch during the second inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks in game two of a doubleheader at Dodger Stadium on September 20, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)

Truly, this might be the boldest prediction of them all.

On October 5, 2016, Madison Bumgarner went the distance in the NL Wild Card Game. It took 119 pitches, but he shut out the New York Mets over nine innings for a do-or-die victory for the Giants.

Since then, there have been 231 postseason games without a single instance of a complete-game shutout.

But that drought comes to an end this October.

Who records that complete-game shutout, you might be wondering?

Well, we're also wondering that.

Houston's Framber Valdez has three complete games and one shutout this season, so he's a fine candidate. Philadelphia's Aaron Nola has two and one, respectively. And you've got to assume both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are at the very least candidates to pull off the feat—though Edwin Díaz's dominance out of the Mets bullpen does make a Scherzer shutout seem quite unlikely.

But if I had to make this prediction even bolder by picking the pitcher to pull it off, give me Tyler Anderson of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

At a combined total of 8.5 walks and strikeouts per nine innings, he's economical with his pitches. He has gone seven innings in seven of his last 13 starts. And with the reports coming out on Friday that Craig Kimbrel is no longer the closer in Los Angeles, the Dodgers might be inclined to just let it ride with a hot starter.

A No. 5 Seed Reaches the League Championship Series

Tampa Bay's Wander Franco (Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 10: Wander Franco #5 of the Tampa Bay Rays in action against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 10, 2022 in the Bronx borough of New York City. The Yankees defeated the Rays 10-3. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Excluding 2020 when the postseason field was temporarily expanded to 16 teams, the No. 5 seed had been eliminated from each league's bracket prior to the LCS in each season dating back to 2016.

And now that the second-best wild-card team needs to win a best-of-three series on the road against the top wild-card team (as opposed to a one-game playoff in years past), getting to MLB's version of the Final Four is even tougher than usual. Not only is it harder to make it out of the wild-card round, but it really messes up the starting rotation, as the No. 4/No. 5 seed might need to throw its No. 4 starter against the No. 1 seed's ace in Game 1 of the Division Series.

The deck is especially stacked against the No. 5 seed in the National League, which will need to win two out of three either at New York or at Atlanta just to get into the NLDS against the mighty Dodgers. Moreover, while the AL Wild Card Round survivor will have a day off before both Game 1 and Game 2 of the ALDS to at least somewhat get its rotation in order, the NL is scheduled for Friday, Saturday, Sunday (if necessary), Tuesday, Wednesday, meaning one fewer day of rest for the ace before he potentially starts Game 2 of the NLDS.

So, yes, it's a bold prediction to say that one of the No. 5 seeds will make it through two rounds.

However, I like either Seattle, Tampa Bay or Toronto to pull it off. There's still no telling how the Nos. 4-6 seeds will shake out in the AL. No matter who it is, though, the No. 5 seed is good enough to give Houston a run for its money in a best-of-five series. (Yes, even the Rays can pull it off, despite getting swept at home by the Astros this week.)

All Four Wild-Card Series End as 2-0 Sweeps...

St. Louis' Miles Mikolas (Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

CINCINNATI, OHIO - AUGUST 29: Miles Mikolas #39 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches in the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on August 29, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

Just to clarify up front, I'm not saying the No. 3 seeds and No. 4 seeds with home-field advantage for all three games (if three are even necessary) will sweep all four of the best-of-three series. That would quite egregiously contradict the previous bold prediction of a No. 5 seed reaching the League Championship Series.

But the Sunday portion of the Friday-Saturday-Sunday wild-card round schedule won't be necessary—which might be for the best, because even the most intriguing possible wild-card round pairing (probably Atlanta-Philadelphia) would get hopelessly overshadowed on an NFL Sunday.

In 2020, when there were eight best-of-three wild-card series, six of them ended in a 2-0 sweep. And even in the two series that went to a third game, the team that won Game 1 had the winning run at the plate in the ninth inning of Game 2 before falling short.

Granted, using 2020 as a baseline for a prediction is probably a bad idea. The Astros went 29-31 that season before nearly making the World Series.

But waking up the morning after a painful loss and knowing you need to bounce back to win that day and the following day is just brutal. Plus, every team in the running to play in the wild-card round has at least two really good starting pitchers. So, not only do you need to rally to win two games in two days, but the first of those two games is going to come against a guy like Miles Mikolas, Robbie Ray, Spencer Strider, Kevin Gausman or Zack Wheeler.

It just feels like sweeps are more likely than rubber matches.

But There Won't Be a Single Sweep in the Latter 3 Rounds

Cleveland's Shane Bieber (Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - SEPTEMBER 22: Starting pitcher Shane Bieber #57 of the Cleveland Guardians delivers the baseball in the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 22, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

Since the addition of the Division Series in 1995, there has been at least one sweep in either the DS, CS or WS in 23 of the 27 postseasons. The exceptions to the rule were 2003, 2011, 2013 and 2021.

Considering the Dodgers are going to set a franchise record for wins in a regular season, considering there's still a chance the Astros do the same, and considering the wild-card teams are at more of a disadvantage heading into the ALDS/NLDS than ever before, at least one sweep is a logical assumption.

But I'm expecting a very competitive October after that initial flourish of wild-card sweeps.

Los Angeles has barely gone .500 this season against Atlanta, New York, Philadelphia and St. Louis with nary a sweep in either direction. And aside from Houston sweeping Tampa Bay last week, its series against the AL's postseason candidates have all been competitive. (Tampa Bay might return the favor in Houston this weekend, too.)

If there is a sweep, my guess is it'll be the Yankees against either the Guardians or the No. 6 seed in the ALDS. So much has been said about New York's sub-.500 record dating back to early July, but they could come out on fire against a Cleveland team that might not have Shane Bieber or Tristan McKenzie available for the first two games.

Here's the thing, though: Cleveland would get to start one of its aces at home in Game 3 against New York's third-best starter, as is the case in each of the other Division Series. Earning a sweep in any of those best-of-five series is going to be mighty difficult and inherently tougher when it switches to best-of-seven.

Atlanta Becomes First Reigning Champion to Reach World Series Since 2008-09 Phillies

Atlanta's Michael Harris II (Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 12: Michael Harris II #23 of the Atlanta Braves looks on before the game against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on September 12, 2022 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

Ignore the recent history of teams repeatedly failing to defend their crown, and this one isn't all that bold.

Atlanta is +450 to win the NL pennant, per DraftKings, and that is assuming it ends up with the No. 4 seed. If the Braves sweep the Mets in this weekend's series in Atlanta, the NL East crown and the No. 2 seed are still very much on the table, at which point the line would probably move to something like +275.

And why not? Atlanta has gone 71-31 since the end of May. The top four in the Braves rotation might be the best in baseball. (Get well soon, though, Spencer Strider.) The bullpen has been equally impenetrable since adding Raisel Iglesias at the trade deadline. And there's still a decent shot they'll end the regular season with seven players who hit at least 20 home runs.

If someone is going to knock out the Dodgers and Mets prior to the World Series, Atlanta is certainly the best candidate to do so.

As far as the past two decades are concerned, though, getting back to the World Series the year after winning it has been virtually impossible.

Of the past 20 reigning champions, 11 failed to even reach the postseason. At least Atlanta is guaranteed to fare better than those teams.

But of the nine to make the playoffs, two (2001-02 Arizona and 2004-05 Boston) lost in the ALDS/NLDS, while six (2007-08 Red Sox, 2009-10 Yankees, 2011-12 Cardinals, 2016-17 Cubs, 2017-18 Astros and 2020-21 Dodgers) lost in the ALCS/NLCS. Only the 2008-09 Phillies were able to pull it off—before losing to the Yankees, which might also be Atlanta's fate.

World Series MVP Goes to a Relief Pitcher for First Time Since 1999

New York's Edwin Diaz (Adam Hunger/Getty Images)

NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 16: Edwin Diaz #39 of the New York Mets pitches during the eighth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citi Field on September 16, 2022 in the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images)

More often than not over the past two-plus decades, World Series MVP has gone to a hitter.

Atlanta's Jorge Soler won it last year. Los Angeles' Corey Seager was named MVP in 2020. Overall, it has been 16 hitters and four starting pitchers in the 20 years since Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling split the honor in 2001.

But I'm going out on a limb and saying that at least three of the World Series champion's four wins will be saved by the same closer, no hitter has a particularly dominant run through the Fall Classic, and we end up with the first relief pitcher MVP since Mariano Rivera in 1999 and just the fifth in World Series history. (WS MVPs were not awarded until 1955.)

As with the previous complete-game shutout forecast, it's much more of a "someone will do it" prediction than a "this specific pitcher will do it" prediction.

There are plenty of great candidates, though.

New York Mets closer Edwin Díaz has been lights-out all season long, as has Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase.

Atlanta's Kenley Jansen has been on a bit of a roller coaster over the past month, but he has a career 2.13 ERA in 63.1 postseason innings pitched.

Tampa Bay's Pete Fairbanks has been basically unhittable for the past two months.

Heck, Houston has two solid candidates in Ryan Pressly and Rafael Montero.

And if Tony Gonsolin returns from the IL to a relief role for the Dodgers, well, he has a 0.78 ERA in the first inning of his 23 starts this season and could be dominant in a ninth-inning role.

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