Pac-12 Football: Preview and Predictions for 2022 Season
Over the past half-decade, the Group of Five has placed more teams in the College Football Playoff (one) than the Pac-12 has (zero).
Could Utah, Oregon or USC bring this Power Five league back to prominence in 2022, or is a matter of time before we all settle back into what has become an annual routine of cracking wise about the "no good, very bad" Pac-12?
Hope springs eternal in the preseason, so we're in the former camp for now, excited to find out how USC's transfer-heavy approach to building a roster pans out.
However, that leaguewide optimism could be just about gone by Labor Day, as both Utah and Oregon open the season on the road against SEC foes in what could be a nightmare of a Week 1 slate in which the Pac-12 goes 3-5 against FBS competition.
Before we pull too hard at that thread, let's dive into our Pac-12 season preview, chock-full of the biggest stars, top storylines and the must-watch affairs of the next three months.
Biggest Stars
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Caleb Williams, QB, USC, and Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Aside from Ohio State's C.J. Stroud and Alabama's Bryce Young, Williams is the top candidate to win the Heisman Trophy. He accounted for 26 total touchdowns over his final eight games as a true freshman at Oklahoma, and now he will continue to lead Lincoln Riley's offense at USC. Joining him via the transfer portal (among many other players) is former Pitt receiver Jordan Addison. He racked up 1,593 yards and 17 receiving touchdowns (tied for first in FBS) last season as a true sophomore.
Noah Sewell, LB, Oregon
With Kayvon Thibodeaux in the NFL, third-year middle linebacker Noah Sewell becomes the face of this Oregon defense—and arguably one of the best individual defenders in the nation. He had 114 tackles in 2021 as well as four sacks, an interception and a pair of forced fumbles. Most of the way-too-early mock drafts have him going in the middle of the first round next spring.
Cameron Rising, QB, Utah
Utah had six players named to the media's All-Pac-12 preseason team, but it's this second-team QB who will get a lot of national attention. The Texas transfer went 9-2 as a starter last year for the Utes, guiding this offense to 38.0 points per game over its final 11 games. Had the Utes gone with Rising from the beginning as opposed to Charlie Brewer, perhaps they would have been in the conversation for the College Football Playoff.
Cameron Ward, QB, Washington State
There's palpable buzz out of Pullman about this Incarnate Word transfer. Ward averaged 357.5 passing yards and 3.6 passing touchdowns per game last season, including 481 yards and five touchdowns in the FCS playoffs against No. 1 seed Sam Houston State. Goodness knows the Cougars have found some QB diamonds in the rough before, and Ward could be this year's version of Bailey Zappe by leading the nation in passing in his first year in the FBS.
Top Storylines
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Transfer U(SC)
This USC roster is what a lot of people were afraid of—personally, I love it—when the NCAA eliminated the requirement to sit a year after transferring: a portal all-star team.
There's Caleb Williams (Oklahoma) at quarterback. There's Travis Dye (Oregon) and Austin Jones (Stanford) at running back. Among receivers, Jordan Addison (Pittsburgh), Mario Williams (Oklahoma), Brenden Rice (Colorado) and Terrell Bynum (Washington) should all feature prominently.
Throw in left tackle Bobby Haskins (Virginia), linebackers Shane Lee (Alabama), Romello Height (Auburn) and Eric Gentry (Arizona State) and defensive backs Mekhi Blackmon (Colorado), Bryson Shaw (Ohio State), Latrell McCutchin (Oklahoma) and Jacobe Covington (Washington) and the Trojans are a "who's who?" of P5 guys who wanted a fresh start elsewhere.
But will it work?
And if it doesn't, will we still see other teams trying it in the future anyway, considering USC is No. 14 in the preseason AP poll after last year's 4-8 mess?
The CFP Drought
We spent a large chunk of this offseason trying to figure out what in the world the future of the Pac-12 looks like in the grand scheme of conference realignment, and that narrative is bound to persist throughout the regular season to some extent.
But now with actual games about to begin, we can't help but look back on the recent past for this league, which has been left out of the College Football Playoff mix in each of the last five seasons.
Heck, the Pac-12 hasn't even been the first runner-up in any of those years, either. Oregon came somewhat close at No. 6 in the final CFP rankings in 2019, but the Pac-12's top finisher in the other years were No. 8 USC in 2017, No. 9 Washington in 2018, No. 11 Utah last year and No. 17 USC in 2020.
Even if they ultimately miss the playoff yet again, could the Pac-12 at least make things somewhat interesting for a change?
Preseason AP No. 7 Utah, No. 11 Oregon and No. 14 USC are the clear top candidates, but that could just about go up in smoke before Labor Day if the Utes (at Florida) and Oregon (at Georgia) both start out 0-1 against SEC schools.
No More Divisions
The Pac-12 has scrapped the North/South setup and will now simply have the two top teams play for the conference championship.
It might not seem like a big deal, but this format would have resulted in a different championship-game pairing in 2011, 2012, 2015 and 2018.
And it could be huge this year, because Oregon would have been the heavy favorite to win the North while the USC-at-Utah game presumably would have determined who won the South. Now, it's possible for the Utes and Trojans to meet for a second time in the conference championship.
The Favorites and Top Challengers
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Utah Utes
Utah has won at least nine games in six of the past eight seasons—and only played five games in one of the two exceptions. But expectations have never been this high before, being ranked in the preseason AP Top 10 for the first time in program history.
Iowa State was in the exact same boat last season, and North Carolina was in a similar ship, debuting in the AP Top 10 for the first time in a quarter century. But after an offseason full of talking them up as fringe CFP candidates, those teams went a combined 13-13.
If you're leery about putting any faith in this atypical contender, we get it.
However, the talent on both sides of the ball is there.
Oregon Ducks
Oregon has finished six of the past seven seasons ranked 19th or worse, but it is about to begin a fourth consecutive season ranked 11th or better.
Will the Ducks live up to the hype for a change under first-year head coach Dan Lanning and former Auburn QB Bo Nix?
If they're anything less than advertised, a 1-3 start to the season is a real possibility, as they have nonconference games against Georgia and BYU before opening Pac-12 play at Washington State.
USC Trojans
As previously discussed, the Trojans are overflowing with talent from the transfer portal.
But it's not all new faces in Southern California. Returning offensive lineman Andrew Vorhees is potentially going to be a first-round pick, defensive tackle Tuli Tuipulotu might be the most disruptive force in the conference, and wide receivers Gary Bryant Jr., Kyle Ford and Tahj Washington combined for 117 receptions, 1,433 yards and 10 touchdowns last year.
If all the new players mesh and the key holdovers continue to produce at a high level, the sky's the limit.
Coaching Carousel
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New: Lincoln Riley, USC
Lincoln Riley went 55-10 over the past five seasons at Oklahoma, guiding the Sooners to three College Football Playoffs and a fourth year in a New Year's Six bowl. Granted, they went 0-3 in those playoff appearances, but losing in a national semifinal would at least be a big step in the right direction for a Trojans program that has gone 22-21 overall in the past four seasons.
Were it not for Brian Kelly's move from Notre Dame to LSU—and all the fake accent/horrible dancing unintentional hilarity that ensued—this would be the "no doubt about it" biggest coaching change of the past few years.
New: Dan Lanning, Oregon
Dan Lanning was Kirby Smart's defensive coordinator at Georgia over the past three seasons, and now he inherits a team with one heck of a one-two punch at linebacker in Noah Sewell and Justin Flowe.
The Ducks should be stout on defense. However, we'll see how well Lanning and his staff can call a game on offense. They lost six of the eight leaders in total offense from a team that wasn't anything special on offense to begin with.
New: Kalen DeBoer, Washington
Last year at Fresno State, Kalen DeBoer steered the Bulldogs to road wins over ranked UCLA and ranked San Diego State, as well as a close call at ranked Oregon. It's little surprise that a Pac-12 team scooped him up.
Washington is hoping that this MWC acquisition works out as well as when it took Chris Petersen from Boise State a decade ago. It bears mentioning, though, that first year expectations for DeBoer are nowhere near what they are for Riley and Lanning.
Hot Seat: David Shaw, Stanford
From 2011-18, David Shaw led Stanford to an 82-26 record and three Rose Bowls. The Cardinal spent time in the AP Top 15 in each of those eight seasons. Since then, however, he's 11-19, and last year's 3-9 mess was especially embarrassing. Stanford beat both USC and Oregon early in the year, then was abysmal on offense from that point forward.
Shaw got one more year to turn things around, but with five games against preseason AP Top 25 opponents, this might be his last.
Best Games on Tap
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No. 11 Oregon at No. 3 Georgia (Sep. 3): Opportunities to make a statement don't get any bigger than this. *Technically* it's a neutral-site game in Atlanta instead of a true home game in Athens, but we all know this is a road game against the reigning national champions. Even if they don't pull off the upset, the Ducks could make a strong first impression by at least keeping things interesting into the fourth quarter.
No. 15 Michigan State at Washington (Sep. 17): Not exactly a marquee showdown with Washington looking like a borderline bowl team, but these are the type of "for the sake of the league's credibility" games that the Pac-12 has squandered far too often in recent years. Nice opportunity right before the start of league play for the Huskies to make the league look a little bit stronger as a whole, and a huge opportunity for Kalen DeBoer to hit the ground running as the new head coach.
No. 14 USC at No. 7 Utah (Oct. 15); No. 7 Utah at No. 11 Oregon (Nov. 19): Sadly, Oregon and USC won't meet during the regular season, so these are the only two massive showdowns among the Pac-12's three CFP hopefuls. If the home team holds serve in both contests, it's likely we'll end up with an Oregon-Utah conference championship game. But for Utah to be taken seriously as a playoff candidate, it probably needs to win both of these games, since there's not much meat elsewhere on its schedule.
No. 5 Notre Dame at No. 14 USC (Nov. 26): There's also Cal at Notre Dame in mid-September and Stanford at Notre Dame in mid-October, but this is the big one against the Fighting Irish, coming at the end of the regular season when we'll know if either or both of these teams still has a playoff pulse with a victory.
Best Offense: USC Trojans
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Utah is a strong first runner-up here, but USC's offense should be special.
Caleb Williams is a dual-threat star at quarterback. He was a top-10 overall recruit in the 2021 class, and it didn't take long to see why.
At running back, Travis Dye had 1,673 total yards from scrimmage and 18 total touchdowns last season at Oregon. And that was in an offense with little to no deep threat for opposing defenses to worry about. He should get a lot of chunk gains in Lincoln Riley's offense, as should backup RB Austin Jones from Stanford.
Establishing the run has been a colossal struggle for USC in recent years, but the Trojans should be much improved in that department.
And at receiver, what an embarrassment of riches. USC's top seven guys—Jordan Addison, Mario Williams, Brenden Rice, Gary Bryant Jr., Tahj Washington, Terrell Bynum and Kyle Ford—made a combined 299 receptions for 4,141 yards and 38 touchdowns last season. Four of them did so elsewhere before entering the transfer portal, but still, this receiving corps will go at least seven deep before any sort of noticeable drop in productivity. And that makes both Williams and the run game that much more dangerous.
Even on the O-line, USC got one of the best transfers available in LT Bobby Haskins and brings back one of the best in the business in LG Andrew Vorhees. Even if the other three starters are nothing special, the left side of the line could be almost as good as the 2017 Notre Dame team that was anchored by eventual top-10 picks Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey.
Listen, they're not going to be "2005 USC" good, but it will be a disappointment if this isn't a top-10 offense this season.
Best Defense: Oregon Ducks
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Same as the best offense debate, Utah has one heck of a strong argument at No. 2 on defense. Led by DBs Clark Phillips III and Cole Bishop and linemen Van Fillinger and Junior Tafuna, they should have a strong pass rush and good protection in the secondary. Also, no one would be surprised if Florida transfer Mohamoud Diabate swoops in and immediately becomes an All-Pac-12 first-team linebacker with Devin Lloyd and Nephi Sewell out of the picture.
But we're taking Oregon here by a slim margin.
It starts in the middle with Noah Sewell and Justin Flowe, the two highest-rated linebackers in the 2020 recruiting class. The former has proved himself worthy of that praise with an excellent first two seasons in Eugene, but the latter is still mostly empty promise, limited by injury to just two games this far in his career. Flowe had 14 tackles in one of those games last year, though, and this could be an incredible one-two punch if he stays healthy in 2022.
Up front, the Ducks are surely going to miss Kayvon Thibodeaux, but they still have a great tackle in Brandon Dorlus and a promising edge-rusher in Bradyn Swinson.
In the secondary, Colorado transfer Christian Gonzalez leads a young group full of potential. Both Dontae Manning and Avante Dickerson could be breakout stars.
Doesn't hurt that they signed a defensive-minded coach in Dan Lanning, either. A linebacker in his playing days and the defensive coordinator at Georgia (which was nothing short of elite on defense) over the past three seasons, Lanning could immediately bring this defense back to the "top 10 in the nation" status it held in 2019.
Projected Standings
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1. Utah Utes (11-1 overall, 8-1 in Pac-12)
2. Oregon Ducks (10-2 overall, 8-1 in Pac-12)
3. USC Trojans (9-3 overall, 7-2 in Pac-12)
4. UCLA Bruins (8-4 overall, 5-4 in Pac-12)
5. Washington Huskies (7-5 overall, 5-4 in Pac-12)
6. Oregon State Beavers (7-5 overall, 5-4 in Pac-12)
7. Washington State Cougars (6-6 overall, 4-5 in Pac-12)
8. California Golden Bears (5-7 overall, 3-6 in Pac-12)
9. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-7 overall, 3-6 in Pac-12)
10. Stanford Cardinal (4-8 overall, 3-6 in Pac-12)
11. Arizona Wildcats (3-9 overall, 2-7 in Pac-12)
12. Colorado Buffaloes (2-10 overall, 1-8 in Pac-12)
Projected Pac-12 Championship: Utah vs. Oregon
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If it's still true that defense wins championships, this should be a great one in a rematch of a regular-season game taking place just two weeks before championship weekend.
In the same situation last year, Utah smoked Oregon twice, 38-7 in the regular season and 38-10 in the Pac-12 championship two weeks later. Utah wasn't prolific on offense in either game, but Oregon had no answer for Tavion Thomas while it often looked like the Utes defense knew what the Ducks offense was trying to do before the ball was even snapped.
Could be more of the same this year, as Oregon hopes for the best with enigmatic quarterback Bo Nix and only two returning skill position players—RB Byron Cardwell and WR Kris Hutson—who accomplished much of anything in 2021.
Oregon's defense could be elite, but the offense is a bit of an unknown. Might come together in a big way by early December, or it might be a repeat of last season in which any above-average defense is liable to cause major problems.
Utah, on the other hand, should be a B-plus at worst on both sides of the ball. That combination of projected balance in 2022 and relatively consistent success over the past eight seasons makes the Utes the clear choice to win the Pac-12.
Whether 12-1 with a Pac-12 title is enough to make the playoff depends on a lot of factors out of Utah's control, but it would at least get this league a top-10 finish in the CFP rankings for the first time since 2019.
Projected Pac-12 Champion: Utah
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