Boston Red Sox: Statistical Projections for the Pitching Staff in 2012

Finally, the Red Sox pitching staff is starting to take shape for the 2012 season.  

After acquiring Mark Melancon and Andrew Bailey, the bullpen certainly appears to be ready to roll. Having made said acquisitions, it appears that we may have internal options to round out the starting rotation as well.

With that in mind, I've decided to look ahead to the 2012 season and make my bold predictions as to how this pitching staff, as constituted today, will perform after a forgettable 2011 campaign.

No 1: Josh Beckett

Innings: 203.2

Record: 17-9

ERA: 3.26

WHIP: 1.148

Strikeouts: 183

Walks: 50

Look, I'm not going to bother rehashing what happened at the end of the 2011 season.  It's been beaten to death.  What I am going to talk about is how I truly believe Josh Beckett (if he's smart) is home getting in the best shape of his life.

I think Beckett will match his win total from 2009 and be a force at the top of the rotation.

No 2: Jon Lester

Innings: 216

Record: 21-5

ERA: 2.94

WHIP: 1.189

Strikeouts: 193

Walks: 65

Every year, I make the same prediction, and I've yet to be proven correct.  Even though Lester won 19 games in 2010, he was not considered the most dominant lefty in the American League.

I strongly believe that this is the season he really breaks out.  He will contend for the Cy Young, if not win it.  He will prove himself to be the true ace of the staff and will be the horse the Sox ride into October.

No 3: Clay Buchholz

Innings: 178

Record: 13-8

ERA: 3.55

WHIP: 1.267

Strikeouts: 113

Walks: 61

Buchholz needs to come into the 2012 season and stay healthy, starting in at least 28 games in order for the Sox not to give up hope on him.  

While he has shown flashes of brilliance in the past, coming off an injury-plagued season, I have a hard time putting up grand expectations for him.

I don't find 13 wins to be out of his reach, but he will struggle and almost lose 10 games as well.  It will be a solid year for a No. 3 starter in Boston.

No 4: Alfredo Aceves

Innings: 205.1

Record: 16-5

ERA: 2.80

WHIP: 1.133

Strikeouts: 144

Walks: 76

Aceves is a beast, and he will continue to be a beast in the starting rotation in 2012.  He is an innings-eater that I figure will easily go seven full innings-plus in every start.

While his history as a starter is sparse, his body of work over the course of 240 career innings is pretty impressive.  He will prove to be a quality starting pitcher.

No 5: Daniel Bard

Innings: 154

Record: 10-12

ERA: 4.12

WHIP: 1.289

Strikeouts: 112

Walks: 66

Daniel Bard is going to struggle adapting to the starting role.  He will start the season off very well, but as the season grows long, his innings and stamina will grow short, and we will see a lot of early departures from him.

This is going to be a big learning year for Bard.  While I'm confident he will perform well to start, I am not sure of his longevity in year one as a starter for Boston.

7th Inning Man: Mark Melancon

Innings: 66

Holds: 5

ERA: 2.68

WHIP: 1.268

Strikeouts: 59

Walks: 23

When the Sox traded for Melancon, it was believed that he would be the closer moving forward.  As time has progressed, I'm not sure his first season in Boston will even have him playing the setup role.  

While he is still young and transitioning back into the AL East (he played with New York in 2009 and part of 2010), he will be utilized as a long-relief/seventh-inning man.

Setup Man: Bobby Jenks

Innings: 64

Holds: 32

Saves: 4

ERA: 3.45

WHIP: 1.301

Strikeouts: 48

Walks: 25

While he will be an expensive setup man, I think Bobby Jenks, coming off of an injury-plagued season, will find himself relegated to this role with spot-saves from time to time.

Jenks has the ability to come back and really wow the city of Boston in 2012.  

With all of the other things that went wrong in town, he should thank his lucky stars that his name was seldom talked about in relation to words like failure, disappointment, letdown, waste of money...you get the picture.

Closer: Andrew Bailey

Innings: 67

Saves: 37

ERA: 1.74

WHIP: 0.998

Strikeouts: 63

Walks: 19

Yesterday, I wrote about who the winners and losers are in the trade for Andrew Bailey.  

The Red Sox are winners in the fact that they have acquired a quality closer that is young and affordable.  He is accustomed to American League batters, etc.

From Bailey, I expect to see career highs in saves.  He will flourish in Boston.  

While Sox fans won't forget about Jonathan Papelbon, they will be pleased with what they get from Andrew Bailey.