Miami Heat: Why It's Too Early to Crown Them as Title Favorites

The running story on the Miami Heat has been that they are under the radar this year compared to last year, and because of that they are going to win 60 of their 66 games and are locks to win the title. Is this actually accurate, though?

Yes, they are probably the "favorites," for whatever that is worth, but I still think they have less than a 50/50 shot. They aren't the favorites, though, that they are being touted as.

They aren't a team that is going to win 60 games and challenge for the greatest team ever that is being discussed.

That's not me "hating." That's easily the Vegas consensus, as Vegas has them as 5/2 favorites. It seems to me that the ESPN-led media is once again getting carried away with the Heat talk. 

I'd still take the field over the Heat. 

First, last time I checked, they still had the "Heat Index" tab on the ESPN website. You couldn't turn on an ESPN show without seeing one of the Big Three getting interviewed about what they learned from last year for the entire preseason. 

It's just flat-out wrong-headed to try to characterize this year as "under the radar" or anything remotely close to that. They are just as hyped as last year, it's just that a part of the hype this year is that there isn't the same hype as last year.

Two examples of the over-hyping are Norris Cole and Shane Battier. Now, since people are going to rush to defend both, I'm not attacking them. I'm saying they are over-hyped. 

The acquisition of Shane Battier has been characterized by Rob Peterson of Hardwood Paroxysm and from ESPN's 5 on 5 Roundtable, in response to the question of who has had the best offseason:

"

Miami, just ahead of the Clippers, Celtics and Knicks. As chaos reigned throughout the league, the Heat projected an image of calm (which was quite the contrast to their previous offseason) and didn't overreact to last year's Finals loss. They answered any questions about Erik Spoelstra's job security by extending his contract and the Heat solidified their D by signing Shane Battier. Not bad for the defending Eastern Conference champs.

"

First, note the amount of words that are completely unprovable and borderline propaganda. "Chaos reigned throughout the league." Really? What is that supposed to mean? It draws pictures of every other team panicking, with sit-com worthy prat falls and comedy ensuing. 

In the midst of all this there's a team, though, that "projects calm." What does that mean? They were pushing calm out? And what did they do to "project calm"?

They "didn't overreact to last year year's Finals loss!" That's quite a way of defining not making any significant moves! Yessir! They had the best offseason because of what they didn't do!  They extended Spoelstra's contract and they signed Shane Battier. 

When Shane Battier was acquired by the Memphis Grizzlies at the trade deadline last year, it was perceived as being a bottom-of-the-page move—a mentionable, but little more. He was a nice defensive player who was well past his prime, but he could still knock down the occasional three and play good help defense. 

Now he's the best wing defender in the NBA, to listen to some people.

Heck, he's worthy of describing the Heat's offseason as the best in the NBA. Yeah, sure, the Knicks got Tyson Chandler, and the Clippers got Chris Paul, Caron Butler and Chauncey Billups, but the Heat, they "projected calm" and signed Shane Battier.

Maybe the Clippers should try to work a trade of Paul, Butler and Billups for Battier. Maybe then they could "project calm" instead of having "chaos reign." 

The other enormous acquisition, the next rookie of the year, is the player that literally every team in the NBA passed on just to make Miami better—Norris Cole.

In the broadcast of the Miami game against the Boston Celtics, (sorry no link available here), one of the broadcasters was describing the Heat defense as the greatest defense ever, better than the 96 Bulls defense. 

Then he added that the unheralded rookie, Norris Cole, was a "big part of the reason why." 

Really? Norris Cole is that good? Would he be that good if he were on any of those teams that passed on him?

I'm not being critical of Battier or Cole here. I'm being critical of those that are ready to dub Battier as the greatest offseason acquisition or Cole as the greatest value draft pick two games into the season. He's averaging 10.7 points and 1.7 assists. Maybe it's just a tad premature to start advocating him as Rookie of the Year. 

Everything to do with the Miami Heat is overstated, even if it's how they are under-hyped. The great paradox of the offseason is the over-hyping of them not being over-hyped. 

Let's put things in perspective here.

Yes, they have added Battier, and that's a nice acquisition, and yes, they are perhaps a little better. On the other hand, their bench has changed a lot since last year. The front end of their rotation is the same, but the back end has gone through some major adjustments. That's going to affect continuity.

They also didn't address their two biggest weaknesses, center and point guard. I think Mario Chalmers and Joel Anthony should show some improvement this year—I'm just not convinced you can win a title with those two in your starting rotation.

And no, Norris Cole is not the answer. 

The other issue facing the team is that they are still top-heavy. Due to the nature of the condensed schedule, they are going to wear down over time. Right now they are fresh and looking good. Once they get into the mire of the season, though, they'll wear down. 

The deeper teams do hold a huge edge, because they can play their rotations longer, and that means that they will have their starters more rested come the postseason. 

Teams like the Chicago Bulls, who upgraded their biggest weakness, probably did more to get better than Miami this year, and they are going to present a far bigger challenger than a lot of the prognosticators are realizing because they are a team built for this kind of schedule. 

When it comes to the Heat, hyperbole is portrayed as reality, and there really does need to be a step taken backward when evaluating their current situation and future championship potential. They certainly could win it all, but they are by no means the inevitable lock being characterized by the media.