World Cup 2010 Predictions: Argentina's Defense the Group B "X-Factor"

In the run-up to Argentina's World Cup opening match, much has been said about the likes of Messi, Di María, Tévez, and Verón.

But Argentina's back line has hardly been mentioned.

It's as if everyone assumed these early rivals will merely defend themselves, and the matches will be settled as soon as Argentina scores.

Earlier today, I listened to this week's edition of BBC 5 live's World Football Phone-in. Tim Vickery gave his thoughts on a very interesting question. A listener asked how he thought Brazil would react against teams who sit and wait for them (like N. Korea will).

Tim noted that in their friendly against Zimbabwe, the Brazilians tried to move their lines forward and defended a bit higher up on the field. Vickery also said they actually seemed rather uncomfortable having to cover such large open spaces in the back when the Zimbabweans, in all their limitations, sought to counter-attack.

This got me thinking about Argentina's tactical development under coach Diego Maradona. We can all agree that the only acceptable Argentina version we've seen came with the 4-4-2 formation they used against Germany in a friendly match a few months back.

Before Diego abandoned the idea of playing "shameless" attacking football, Argentina was getting picked apart throughout their qualifying matches. They showed considerable defensive weaknesses.

Contrary to what some may say, I don't believe the Argentine back line is necessarily weak. How could you explain that two of these same defenders started in this year's Champions League Final?

What I will say, however, and this is what concerns me, is that the Argentine back line is quite vulnerable when it comes to covering wide open spaces.

They're slow and heavy-set. I'm concerned because I know Argentina will be forced to attack these "weaker" rivals, and play the game on their side of the field.

I've even wondered if Burdisso isn't a better option for the first round matches. He has more mobility and is better suited for covering wide spaces. But given Diego's proclivity for Demichelis, that's not likely to happen.

In any case, it would certainly be wise to take precautions during this first round, despite the apparent disparity of the group. These first rivals will likely bet on fast-breaks and counter-attacks, and the Nigerians and South Koreans can do this with a fair amount of speed.

So, take note. These Argentine defenders are not quick to get back into position, in the event of a counter-attack. And they've made awful mistakes under similar circumstances in the past.

Most Argentines never fully understood the extent of Roberto Ayala's importance. I would venture to say he was the most significant player this national team had since Diego Maradona (along with Batistuta, perhaps). They simply have not been able to replace him with anyone similar. 

Conversely, I think this squad will play much more comfortably against the "heavier-weight" rivals in future rounds. Things will be far more straight-forward.

They'll be able to return to that 4-4-2 we saw against Germany, with the midfield line playing much closer to the defenders. Verón's long balls and Di María, Higuaín, and Messi's break-aways also make Argentina well-suited for counter-attacking play.

As we all know, the World Cup doesn't offer many second chances. And football is a sport where David often stands a chance against Goliath.

So although no one will doubt Argentina's offensive power, Messi, Higuain, Tévez, and Milito could all be rendered useless if there's not caution in the back.