World Cup 2010 Preview: Is Group D the Real Group of Death?

When the World Cup groups were first drafted back in December, most fans instantly tabbed Group G (Brazil, Ivory Coast, Portugal, and North Korea) as 2010’s “Group of Death.”

I was not among them.

Group D was my choice, and my justification is thus: A true “Group of Death” (GOD, henceforth) is comprised of four teams, any two of which could just as easily advance at the expense of the others.

Portugal, Ivory Coast, and Brazil seem to fit that bill, but North Korea is left the odd man out. Knowing little about the Fighting Kim Jong Ils, I’ll go far enough to say that they pose no (football) threat to the other three countries.

In addition, Brazil is far and away the strongest team in the group, and they will advance likely without dropping a point (I’ll return to eat as big a crow you can serve if they don’t advance). Consequently, Group G turns out to be nothing more than a two dog fight—a far cry from a true GOD.

My choice, instead, was Group D—Germany, Ghana, Serbia, and Australia. In terms of FIFA Rankings, Germany sits at sixth, Serbia at 15th (just behind the USA), Australia at 20, and Ghana at 32.

That results in an average group ranking of 18.25, while Group G currently boasts a 34.00 average ranking (granted, N. Korea’s 105th place ranking is a bit of an outlier) and Group C’s 19.25 average ranking.

It would seem, then, that my GOD preference was fairly accurate, as any of the four teams could reasonably advance without much shock. Germany would seem the favorite, but in terms of top to bottom depth, Group D(eath) is the winner of all the groups.

Or is it?

Let’s take a team-by-team look at my quondam GOD, why they have fallen from grace, and find out who has claimed their stake as the true GOD.

Germany

Germany enter the 19th World Cup with one of their weakest sides in recent history.

Yes, they are ranked sixth in the world. Yes, they qualified with not so much as a quiver of anxiety. Yes, they are Germany, and they always win (in penalties).

But this German side is a bit different.

Not tactically per se, or in terms of their leader. Joachim Low has as nearly as much pedigree as any other manager in the Cup, assisting the Germans to a third place finish in the 2006 Cup. He will probably run a 4-4-2, 4-2-3-1 hybrid with playmaking phenom (and Best Young Player candidate) Mesut Ozil just behind a striker in a free role—but more on that later.

No, it is the composition of this German side that is most different from years past, and nothing symbolizes this absence of German tradition more than the left-behind Michael Ballack.

After suffering a tackle from Kevin-Prince Boateng in the FA Cup Final, Ballack was ruled out, and though Germany would seem to have some capable replacements, the impact of Die Mannschaft’s captain goes beyond the pitch.

Clearly Ballack is not the player he was four years ago, relegated to a more defensive role as he has aged at Chelsea. But Ballack symbolizes the strength of Germany, the gritty demeanor and will to win that seems to epitomize the three-time Cup champions, and sis fall to Boateng’s tackle has seemed to bring the entire German side down a notch, from invincibility to briefly vulnerable.

Ballack’s dual roles as captian and midfield anchor will most crucially be filled by two players—Phillip Lahm and Sami Khedira.

Lahm will slip on the armband for Ballack, and his veteran grit from the back will be vital for Germany to get out of the group stages, where they will likely face the Americans or England in the second round.

Khedira will have to fill Ballack’s holding midfielder role, which is a crucial position in the German system. Not only is defending vital from this role, but possession is dictated here, and playing alongside Bastian Schweinsteiger, Khedira will have to know when to get forward, when to stay home, and when to pick out which passes—a lot of responsibility for a 23-year-old with five caps.

Another German weakness is keeper, also bitten by the injury bug. Rene Adler is out with a rib injury, and the replacements aren’t what I would call world class.

Ultimately, the Germans will put out a lineup like below, and they should advance from the group, but the emblematic absence of Ballack could make the knockout rounds difficult, especially if Germany wind up second in the group.

Predictions: First in the Group (seven points)

Germany – 3  Australia – 1

Germany – 0  Serbia – 0

Germany – 2 Ghana – 0

Serbia

When qualification finished, Serbia was my No. 1 dark horse pick.

It’s hard to consider any qualifier that finishes ahead of a perennial power like France as a dark horse, but thanks to relative international anonymity and last-place finish in 2006’s Cup, Serbia fit the bill.

Any team with the defensive prowess the Serbs possess have a chance. Vidic, Subotic, Ivanovic, and Lukovic are all big-time center backs in major leagues. Three of the four will likely start in the back, with Ivanovic sliding to right back,.

The Serbian midfield should not be overlooked, however. Dejan Stankovic will be the linchpin here, fresh off a Champions League title with Inter Milan. Recent Liverpool pickup Milan Jovanovic plays a free role just behind the strikers (think Landon Donovan moving left to center) and is also a creative player down the wing.

Up top, Nikola Zigic is a strong, tall target, standing over 6’7”, and was recently nabbed by Alex McLeish at Birmingham. He’s scored 16 goals in 44 caps, but his size will give any center back pairing fits. Marko Pantelic, the hotheaded Ajax man, should play beside him to fill out the Serbian 4-4-2.

However, Serbia seem to be on the brink of self-destruction.

Their pre-Cup run in Austria has been nothing short of abysmal—and nearly (literally) disastrous. A 1-0 loss to New Zealand led to a near-riot only prevented by Nemanja Vidic’s seizure of and speech over the stadium PA. The loss was followed by a 0-0 draw to Poland which provided very little hope for the Serbs—anytime Lukasz Fabianski shuts your team out, you should be worried.

In all, though, the Serbs have enough depth to overcome their recent form struggles, especially with the state of Group D(ire).

I expect, as in qualification, a stout defense, and even if the offense doesn’t get it together, I expect the likes of Vidic, Ivanovic, and Stankovic will be enough defensive presence to get out of the group.

Prediction: Second in the group (7 points)

Serbia – 1  Ghana – 0

Serbia – 0  Germany – 0

Serbia – 1  Australia – 0

Ghana

Michael Essien is out of the World Cup with a knee injury.

There it is. No subtle build up, no wordplay or verbal trickery, not even a clever lead tying in the increasing number of Chelsea injuries with a John Terry euphemism.

Ghana’s superstar, one of the best players in the world, is out, but unlike Ballack, Essien wasn’t just a symbol of his team’s strength—he is his team’s strength.

I know that Ghana have other players, very capable players. I’m a Fulham fan myself, so you don’t have to tell me how good John Paintsil is in the back, and I’ve seen enough Inter to know that Sulley Muntari is no pushover.

Undoubtedly, Ghana are still strong without Essien. They nearly won the African Nations Cup, falling in the final to a peaking Egyptian side, and they have as many strong, technically gifted central midfielders any other country in contention.

There are some bright spots in the line up. Kwadwo Asamoah, should the Ghanians play (relatively) offensive, is a dangerous left-winger plying his trade in Italy for Udinese. He was impressive against Latvia in the final pre-Cup friendly for Milovan Rajevac’s men.

Painstil is as good a fullback as a team could ask for, and Richard Kingson is one of the best African keepers in the world.

But they are missing that dominating presence World Cup runs require. Yes, they can defend, and yes, they can control some of the ball, but it takes an Essien to decide 0-0 games in the 80th minute, and without him, I don’t have much hope for the Black Stars.

Prediction: Fourth in the group (1 pt)

Ghana – 0  Serbia – 1

Ghana – 1  Australia – 1

Ghana – 0  Germany – 2

Australia

The Socceroos boast a solid side with relatively reputable players like Tim Cahill, Mark Schwarzer, and Harry Kewell, and they are coming off a 2006 Cup which saw them qualify for the knockout stages.

However, the Aussies enter the Cup unhealthy, much like the rest of Group D(ecrepit), as Kewell is currently fighting a groin injury to get fit for the opener against Germany.

The friendly against the USA wasn’t too friendly, either, as the Aussies presented their English-speaking counterparts with chance after chance, falling 3-1 in what could have been 6-1 just as easily.

Pim Verbeek’s men will set out in a 4-5-1, 4-2-3-1 hybrid that allows Tim Cahill to play as an advanced striker. They lack a technical skill needed to get past the rugged German and Serbian defenses, however, and unless they can strike on set pieces, I don’t see them scoring too many goals.

I’m not optimistic for Australia. They have enough talent to take advantage of struggling Serbia or greening Ghana, but an unfit Kewell limits their offensive ability, and their defense, which should be a strength with players like Lucas Neil and Craig Moore, was severely exploited by the Americans.

Predicted Finish – Third in the group (1 pt)

Australia – 1  Germany – 3

Australia – 1  Ghana – 1

Australia – 0  Serbia – 1

Group of Death?

There is no Group of Death at this year's cup. No one group has four teams capable of beating each other and advancing.

Group D, however, is the closest thing to a GOD, but having been weakened by injuries, this FC has to say that the groups of the 2010 FIFA World Cup are deathless.