The transfer merry-go-round is beginning to pick up pace, and with the recent economic downturn, football clubs could do worse than to follow a precedent set by a MLB franchise.
The Oakland A's are the subject of the bestselling business novel Moneyball, written by Michael Lewis.
You may be a little confused right now. What could football possibly learn from baseball? The two sports are entirely different games.
Well, that is true. But the business of sport is universal. In the modern era of professional sports, success on the field is derived from financial success. It is a sad fact, but nonetheless true.
This derivation of success on the field of play from success off of it is the source of the emergence of the "Big Four" teams in the English Premier League.
Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester United have become virtually permanent fixtures in the top four positions of the English Premier League in recent seasons. Liverpool was the only one to finish outside of these Champions League qualification positions in 2005 (that same season they won the Champions League so ultimately qualified as holders).
The lucrative nature of the UEFA Champions League has increased the financial deficits between the "Big Four" and the rest of the Premier League clubs.
And, despite modern perception, I have faith that the majority of professional footballers desire to play at the highest level, not just at the club offering them the highest wages.
There is no higher level in world football than the Champions League. The result of all of this has been an embarrassment of financial and playing riches for the "Big Four."
So how can competing Premier League clubs operate to try and break the dominance of the "Big Four" in the domestic game? Well, this is where the Oakland A's come into play.
The Oakland A's were a MLB franchise that was going nowhere fast prior to the appointment of their current general manager, Billy Beane.
This appointment turned out to be one of the most significant ever in MLB, and could yet turn out to be one of the most significant in all professional sports.
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For those of you familiar with Moneyball, you will probably understand where I am going with this. For those of you who aren't, I will provide a brief summary.
Moneyball offers a unique perspective on how Billy Beane managed to transform a relatively small MLB franchise into one that has regularly competed with richer, more renowned franchises such as the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox throughout the '90s.
Now, my knowledge of baseball extends no further than what is written between the covers of this novel, but it doesn't need to.
The reason for this transformation of the Oakland A's is due to Beane's revolutionary exploitation of labour-market imperfections. This exploitation arose as a result of a statistic-heavy approach to scouting players.
Using a sabermetric model (I don't know exactly what this is either!), Beane and his backroom staff handpicked those players that would fit into the Oakland A's style of play, and yet were undervalued in the labour market for baseball players due to imperfections that existed within it.
Using key performance indicators (KPIs) such as on-base percentage and slugging percentage, which Beane highlighted as better indicators of offensive success, and the ability for players to avoid an 'out' rather than get a 'hit', Beane acquired players that were cheaper than those with higher, conventional statistics.
The result was winning percentages within the top 10 of all MLB franchises, despite having annual payrolls within the bottom 10 of all MLB franchises. On two separate occasions, Oakland's winning percentage was the second highest of all the teams, despite having an annual payroll of less than half of that of the more affluent franchises such as the Yankees, the Red Sox, and the Dodgers.
Perhaps English Premier League teams could utilise this statistic-heavy approach to exploit labour-market imperfections that exist within the current game.
It would be a way for clubs to sign suitable players for prices and wage costs that are far lower than the inflated prices that are banded about the professional game at this moment in time.
In fact, Tottenham Hotspur are one of the first clubs to look into the possibility of adapting the approach of the Oakland A's to the boundaries of professional football, working with Beane himself, who admits to "falling in love" with the game during a couple of months he spent in England in 2006.
Beane is exploring the possibility of adapting the model to football with professor Bill Gerrard of the University of Leeds. It is hoped that such a model will expose similar imperfections in the labour market for professional footballers to those identified in baseball.
All of which will be of benefit to professional football clubs, allowing them to sign suitable players for a lower cost, and could have the impact of breaking the dominance of the Premier League by the "Big Four."
There are many difficulties associated with the development of such a statistical model for football though, namely, the choice of the key performance indicators that will be used.
Unlike baseball, football is a free-flowing sport and there are many variables that can impact upon the KPI statistics. The statistical model was, by all accounts, much easier to develop in the case of baseball.
It is debatable as to whether such an approach will ever truly catch on in professional football. But the nature of the market for professional footballers suggests that imperfections probably do exist and could be worth looking into.
If Tottenham wins the Premier League in the next few years, they will have Billy Beane to thank.
I would like to hear your opinion on this issue. Do you think such an approach to acquiring players will ever exist in football?
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4 months ago
I'm a supporter of Tottenham Hotspur and if (and it's a very big if) we do ever win the League, I'd like to think we'd have more to thank than someone called Mr Beane.
Seriously though, I don't think the statistical based road is the one to go down in regards to the Premier League. The whole of Europe and most of the world has a much larger pool of players to choose from than baseball. Without the money of the "Big four" most clubs should look at better scouting and youth development as a way to compete.
Tottenham by the way, are the 11th richest club in the world and the only one in the top 20 not to have played in the Champions League. Just shows how hard it is in the Premier League, even with money.
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