Bayern Munich vs. Juventus: Team News, Predicted Lineups, Live Stream, TV Info
A suddenly wounded Juventus team looks to build on their comeback in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League round-of-16 tie against Bayern Munich.
Date: Wednesday, March 16
Time: 8:45 local time, 7:45 GMT, 3:45 ET
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Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich
TV Info: BT Sport 2 (UK), FS2 (US)
Live Stream: BT Sport Connect (UK), Fox Sports Go (US)
What a difference three weeks make.
When Bayern Munich arrived at the Juventus Stadium three weeks ago, the story was how decimated they were by injuries. The Bavarian giants were forced to use a makeshift center-back pairing going into the first leg, and Juve were expected to key into that to try to gain an advantage in the tie.
Fast forward 21 days, and it's Juve that suddenly have a mass of key injuries. Giorgio Chiellini's recurring calf problem will keep him out until at least the weekend's Derby della Mole against Torino. Striker Mario Mandzukic is a doubt after limping off the field against Sassuolo on Friday, and now the Bianconeri have been hit with another double-whammy.
According to Juve's official website both Claudio Marchisio and Paulo Dybala pulled out of training on Monday.
Both were diagnosed with varying degrees of calf injury; Marchisio will be out about three weeks, while Dybala is being monitored with an eye toward Torino.
That heaps pressure on Massimiliano Allegri and his depth players. Without Marchisio, it will be up to either Hernanes or Stefano Sturaro to help control the midfield—a critical battle that Bayern won handily for the first hour of the first leg.
Further forward, Alvaro Morata is almost sure to start at striker. Whether he will partner a hobbled Mandzukic or Simone Zaza—or if he'll be a sole striker—remains to be seen. If the Croatian is unavailable, that latter option may be appealing to Allegri, who would be able to make adjustments in-game if one were held in reserve.
The good news for Allegri is that their strong defensive spine is still there. Even without Chiellini, Andrea Barzagli and Leonardo Bonucci are one of the best center-back pairings in the world, and Daniele Rugani is one of the world's most promising defensive prospects in reserve.
With full-backs Stephan Lichtsteiner and Patrice Evra completing the line, Juve possess the best back line in Europe. If there's any group that can stand up to Bayern's attack on any given day, it's this one.
On the other side of the matchup, Bayern has been off form since the first leg. A workmanlike 2-0 win over Wolfsburg followed their trip to Turin, but then they were shocked by Mainz for their first home loss of the year, then traveled to Signal Iduna Park to play Borussia Dortmund. BVB had the better of the game for the first hour or so before burning out, but they still played Pep Guardiola's men to a goalless draw.
The Bavarians got back on track this weekend with a 5-0 win over Werder Bremen, but Dortmund and Mainz have given Allegri a model he could use against Bayern.
For all Bayern's firepower, there's still one key weakness. Mehdi Benatia has returned healthy to the center of defense, but Holger Badstuber, Javi Martinez and Jerome Boateng are still missing—meaning Joshua Kimmich will again be sitting in the center of defense. If he makes the same mistakes he made three weeks ago, life could become very difficult for the German side.
Form Lines
| Bayern Munich | Juventus |
| W 5-0 vs. Werder Bremen | W 1-0 vs. Sassuolo |
| D 0-0 @ Borussia Dortmund | W 2-0 @ Atalanta |
| L 2-1 vs. Mainz | L 3-0 @ Inter* |
| W 2-0 @ Wolfsburg | W 2-0 vs. Inter |
| D 2-2 @ Juventus* | D 2-2 vs. Bayern Munich** |
Bayern Munich Notes:
*Champions League round-of-16 first leg.
Juventus Notes:
*Coppa Italia semifinal second leg, aggregate finished 3-3. Juventus advanced 5-3 on penalties.
**Champions League round-of-16 first leg.
Projected Lineups
| Bayern Munich (4-1-4-1) | Juventus (4-3-3) |
| Neuer | Buffon |
| Lahm Kimmich Benatia Alaba | Lichtsteiner Bonucci Barzagli Evra |
| Vidal | Sturaro Khedira Pogba |
| Ribery Muller Thiago Costa | Cuadrado Morata Pereyra |
| Lewandowski |
Unavailable:
Bayern Munich: OUT: CB Jerome Boateng (groin), CB Holger Badstuber (broken ankle), CB Javi Martinez (knee). QUESTIONABLE: FW Arjen Robben (illness).
Juventus: OUT: CB/RB Martin Caceres (torn Achilles), CB Giorgio Chiellini (calf), CM Claudio Marchisio (calf), FW Paulo Dybala (calf). QUESTIONABLE: FW Mario Mandzukic (leg).
Key Players
Sturaro's contributions to the team have been underrated this year, but the 23-year-old has done some important work.
When Marchisio and Sami Khedira were out for much of the season's opening phases, Sturaro had to pick up a lot of the slack. He struggled at the beginning of the year, but in October he stepped up his game, putting in a couple of excellent performances.
The best parallel for Sturaro's game is Gennaro Gattuso. Much like AC Milan's old bulldog, Sturaro has no issues going into tackles hard. He'll run until doomsday and sacrifice everything for the team.
The difference between him and Gattuso is ball skills. Sturaro has them, Gattuso didn't. He's no dribbling wizard, but when he gets the ball in good positions, he can work his way into something more dangerous. Last year he pulled a nifty spin move to score his first Juve goal against Napoli, and he took a deft touch to put him into position to score a late insurance goal against Palermo in November.
Hernanes seems like the more natural fill-in for Marchisio's regista role, but Sturaro has always raised his game in the Champions League, especially when the stakes are highest.
When given a surprise start in the first leg of last year's semifinal against Real Madrid, he provided a near-impossible intervention to prevent James Rodriguez doubling the Liga side's lead in a game Juve eventually won 2-1.
Three weeks ago he came on to add some energy to Juve's midfield and got past Kimmich to score the equalizer, giving Juve a puncher's chance to advance.
If Sturaro plays, expect him to be a difference-maker.
The man Juve will look to stop more than any other is Thomas Muller.
The 26-year-old has won almost everything there is to win for both club and country, and he's come up with the goods on the biggest occasions.
In his two World Cups, he's scored 10 times, putting himself in prime position to break Miroslav Klose's tournament record. He scored nine times in qualifying for the UEFA European Championships and has potted 19 times in the Bundesliga.
He's not a dribbler, and you won't see him making the kind of passes you see from the likes of Andrea Pirlo or Xavi. He does one thing—score prolifically.
Robert Lewandowski is usually considered Bayern's prime threat, but Bonucci and Barzagli handled him quite well three weeks ago. But it's the fact that the Pole is the primary target guy that makes Muller so dangerous—he gets lost in the shuffle, and by the time you realize where he is, he's tapping the ball into the net.
Keeping a constant watch on Muller will be important, because in order to progress Juve will have to either keep the game scoreless as long as possible or take the lead quickly to avoid Bayern's away goals coming into the equation.
Key Matchup
It feels like beating a dead horse, but it bears repeating—Bayern's weakest point on the field on Wednesday is going to be Kimmich.
A defensive midfielder by trade, Kimmich is good passer, but he doesn't have the pure defensive skills one associates with a center back. According to WhoScored.com, his averages in tackles and interceptions per game in the Bundesliga are both below one—0.7 in both, to be precise. In the Champions League, his numbers improve a little bit, but he's not in his element.
In the first leg he was responsible for both of Juve's goals. The first came when he badly scuffed a clearance, allowing Mandzukic to slip Dybala in for the score. The equalizer came when Sturaro simply slipped behind him to pound home Morata's cross.
Speaking of Morata...
The Spaniard is one of the best channel-runners in the competition, and he's already proved that he comes to life when Europe's bright lights are on him. He scored five times in last year's knockout stage, including both legs of the semifinal and the equalizer in the final.
Between last season and this, he scored in five consecutive Champions League games—equaling Alessandro Del Piero's club record—and he was a constant danger when he came on in the first leg of this tie.
With Dybala out, he's almost certain to start. Expect him to set his sights on attacking Kimmich from the start to try to take advantage of that weakness and gain the upperhand in the tie.
Given that Bayern is likely to keep the majority of possession the pressure won't be relentless, but that just puts even more pressure on Kimmich to be perfect every time he's called into action. If he falters at the wrong time, the tie could be turned on its head.
Odds (via Odds Shark)
Bayern Munich win: 4-7
Juventus win: 5-1
Draw: 14-5
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