20 College Football Programs That Will Fade in 2012

One sure thing regarding the ever-changing landscape of college football is the fact that it is cyclical in nature.

Graduation, eligibility rules and the draft combine to make the talent pool in college football different than that of its more advanced but no less lucrative big brothers, the NFL, CFL and other professional leagues.

All this adds up to programs experiencing huge ups and seemingly catastrophic lows based on the turnover ratio of experienced talent. 

Yes, in given years all the stars magically align for some teams who have an overabundance of seniors returning to campus to give a program a sizable edge from an experience and leadership standpoint.

The following slideshow identifies 20 college football teams that will experience some sort of relative setback in 2012 based on a dip in experience caused by the inevitable turnover that lies in the nature of collegiate sport.

Texas A&M

Though the more obvious reasoning behind an Aggie fade in 2012 would be the move to the SEC, Texas A&M may be hampered more by personnel turnover than by any other contributing factor.

The reason for all the hope in College Station coming in 2011 was the fact that A&M had the type of returning experience that was drool-worthy.

According to digit master Phil Steele, the Ags were No. 1 in the Big 12 and No. 8 overall in experience and returned a whopping 11 senior starters this past season.

Texas A&M will also deal with a coaching change, the historic conference switch and a myriad of other, normal transitory issues in 2012, but it won’t have near the stability from a personnel standpoint that it did in 2011.

Northwestern

The Wildcats went 6-6 in 2011, a mark from which a fade would mean missing bowl eligibility for the first time since 2006.

But the truth is this is a realistic destiny for Northwestern based solely on the fact that as stacked as the Wildcats were from a senior leadership standpoint in 2011, they will be devoid of this necessary asset in 2012.

The Wildcats were among the top 10 programs in the country in terms of senior contributors this season and began the year with a whopping 16 senior starters, which means only one thing...younger, less experienced talent in a stacked Big Ten coming into 2012.

SMU

SMU posted its second consecutive seven-win season in 2011 for the first time since before receiving the death penalty in the 1980s.

As impressive as this long-awaited comeback certainly is, the Mustangs may experience a performance dip in 2012 based on personnel turnover.

SMU returned the most experienced squad in the nation this season according to Phil Steele and also was among the top programs in the country in senior leadership in the two-deep.

What will also contribute to the Mustangs' potential diminishing is their impending move to the Big East; when it occurs, it will amp up the level of competition, which never complements a leadership rebuilding program.

Toledo

It’s difficult to properly digest Toledo’s accomplishments in 2011, which go way beyond their second consecutive eight-win season and their first back-to-back bowl appearances since 2004-05.

The Rockets' losses this season were a narrow loss to then-ranked Ohio State, a whipping at the hands of No. 4 Boise State, the “screw-over” at Syracuse and then a score-fest 63-60 defeat to eventual MAC champ Northern Illinois.

Yes, this is a good team that has only lost to BCS teams and conference champions.

What helped fuel the Rockets' success in 2011 was a talent pool that earned the No. 4 spot nationally in Phil Steele’s comprehensive rankings, a stat that was bolstered by 13 senior starters and six seniors in the two-deep, giving Toledo tremendous leadership resources.

In 2012 the Rockets will be rebuilding and to further complicate matters will be without their coach Tim Beckman, who is moving on to Illinois to take over where Ron Zook left off.

Boise State

Yet another program with a conference shift in the works, Boise State just keeps pumping out the wins no matter where it has its mail delivered.

What may somewhat hamper the blue-hued Broncos in 2012 is the lack of 14 senior starters and five graduates from the two-deep, which may not hurt Boise as much as teams playing in conferences like the Big Ten or SEC but may spell a setback nonetheless.

Any effect on Boise State’s winning ways may be minimal, but it’s all relative when you’re dealing with a squad that hasn’t had more than one loss in any one season since 2007.

This means two losses represents more than a fadeout—it’s potentially gut-wrenching.

Kansas State

K-State was certainly one of the biggest surprise teams of the 2011 season.

A squad that many prognosticators had as a No. 6 finisher in the Big 12 reeled off 10 wins and earned the No. 2 spot in a conference that was arguably the most stacked in the nation coming into the season.

One of the contributing factors to the Wildcats' stunning successes this year was a senior experience level that was high from a national standpoint.

What is somewhat tricky in looking at Kansas State’s experience ratings coming into 2011 is that its overall ranking was low while its senior rating was elevated, meaning that the weakness easily shaded a hidden strength.

The Wildcats' six senior starters and eight in the two-deep gave them a top-tier ranking, while their overall experience rating was among the bottom 15 in the nation.

It’s unsure how much of this loss of leadership in 2012 will actually negatively affect a very good team, but the numbers make you believe that a “fadeout” scenario is possible.

Southern Miss

Though Southern Miss was briefly on the national radar during the 2011 regular season, it wasn’t until it shocked the world by whipping No. 6 Houston in the C-USA championship game that a larger audience sat up and took notice.

Southern Miss’ win over Nevada in this year’s Hawaii Bowl earned it a 12-2 mark and will no doubt secure the program a coveted non-BCS spot in the final AP rankings, which will be released in January.

All under-the-radar theories aside, the Golden Eagles were expected to do well in 2011 by many members of the college football brain trust, and at least some of this positive press was due to a senior return rate that was in the top tier in the nation.

A total of 18 Golden Eagles seniors returned in 2011 among the starters and the two-deep, which means that an equal 18 senior leaders will be gone in 2012.

Tulsa

Another C-USA team that enjoyed success in 2011, Tulsa went 8-4 this year and had the distinction of losing all four of its games to Top 10-ranked teams.

That’s right—Tulsa’s losses were to No. 1-ranked Oklahoma, No. 8 Oklahoma State, No. 4 Boise State and No. 8 Houston.

Wow.

And what whipped the Golden Hurricane from Oklahoma up into a winning frenzy?

Well, Tulsa was ranked No. 3 nationally in experience by Phil Steele, which is a number that included eight returning senior starters along with seven in the two-deep.

Just like virtually every other team on this list, the Golden Hurricane will be dealt a hand in 2012 that has less leadership, which could result in a weakening from a competitive standpoint.

Temple

Yet another team that played at a high level from a non-BCS conference in 2011, Temple scored its third consecutive eight-plus-win season by finishing 9-4.

The Owls were without coach Al Golden, who flew south to Miami for warmer weather and bigger headaches, but still on campus were a whopping 13 senior starters and an additional seven in the two-deep.

This statistical fact gave Temple a huge advantage from a leadership and experience standpoint in 2011 and is something it will have to deal with from a rebuilding approach to keep the wins flowing in 2012.

Air Force

Air Force looked to have the type of talent and the kind of conference situation to make a serious run in 2011, which makes its 7-5 finish seem less favorable in retrospect.

The Falcons returned a jaw-dropping 17 senior starters this season and then heaped on an additional seven in the two-deep, making Air Force the most senior-laden team in the nation.

It’s obvious that Air Force, not unlike a plethora of teams on and off this list, will return talent in 2012, but it might have the most to rebuild from a leadership standpoint of any team in the nation.

Arkansas State

How good was Arkansas State’s 10-2 finish in 2011?

Well, it’s the Red Wolves' best finish since they joined the Division I-A (FBS) ranks in 1992 and the first time they’ve won more than seven games since they won eight way back in 1987.

Yes, now Hugh Freeze is a hero (rightfully so) and has gone so far as to use his one-year blitz in Jonesboro to garner the Ole Miss job for 2012.

Part of what made Freeze and a very good Red Wolves team so successful in 2011 was senior returners that included 11 starters and six in the two-deep, making Arkansas State yet another senior-blessed squad.

On tap for 2012 is the loss of the experience and the first-year coach who made winning come quickly and big...all this adds up to concerns and intrigue that point to at least a slight turn of the dimmer switch in the ASU dining room.

Missouri

Coming into 2011 Mizzou was one of the most stacked teams in the country and was one QB away from making a serious foray into the upper echelon of the Big 12 and beyond.

Yes, if the Tigers could usher out the Blaine Gabbert era and usher in the year of James Franklin successfully and seamlessly, then the top of the charts was indeed within reach.

In all, Missouri had 12 senior starters return to campus in ’11 and then piled on five from the two-deep, making it not as experienced from a graduating standpoint as others but in good shape for a program that already consistently performs well.

When you combine the now inevitable attrition in 2012 with the equally inescapable flee to the SEC, a prescribed fade seems quite predestined.

Arizona State

Perhaps no other team in the Pac-12 (or in the BCS, for that matter) had a sweeter-looking setup (at least on paper) than did Arizona State coming into 2011.

Yes, the Sun Devils boasted 13 senior starters (and seven in the two-deep), a No. 25 national experience ranking courtesy of the wizard-like Phil Steele, a very doable divisional situation (helped along by a USC team unable to consummate the season) and a stack of talent all over the field.

Indeed sir, it was time to “fear the fork,” and so what better time to unveil what was in reality a pretty cool marketing campaign and one of the few uniform transformations that didn’t require the notice of the fashion police?

Now that the dust has actually settled on the Sun Devils' campaign, it’s obligatory to point out that with the perspective of high hopes, the 6-7 finish really sucks, and it sucks enough that yet another coach lost his job to see it become one of the 24 openings in the FBS this season...

So what does this all mean for Todd Graham in 2012 in the new era of silverware angst?

Well, it just makes it more difficult for him to win next year, but on the other side of the coin, it will perhaps be easier from a long-term standpoint, with younger players, to install his systems.

Utah State

Hailing from the WAC, the 2011 Aggies were far more than just the team that committed the big “almost” upset against defending champion Auburn in a thrilling Week 1 wire-beater.

Yes, Utah State went 7-6 this season, and if it could have held off Ohio in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, then it could have scored its first bowl win since beating Ball State in the 1993 Las Vegas Bowl.

The Aggies' seven-win mark was their best since 1993, and the bowl bid marked the first Aggie postseason appearance since 1997, when they went 6-6.

A big block in the foundation of Utah State’s breakthrough season was a No. 24 national experience ranking in Phil Steele’s ratings, which was bolstered considerably by 10 returning senior starters and eight seniors in the two-deep.

Utah State will have the advantage of a dwindling WAC membership in 2012 but will have to overcome the massive hits to leadership and experience to avoid taking a step backwards that signals not a bad team, but a young one.

Mississippi State

In an odd twist that can only make sense in very specific statistical discussions, Mississippi State is like the Tulsa of the SEC.

No, it’s not some kind of freaky SAT logic question that you are supposed to act like you understand, but instead a simple statement that here are two solid, quality teams who faced a murderers' row of 2011 foes that perhaps shade a palpable level of talent.

Where Tulsa faced and lost to four Top 10-ranked opponents, Mississippi State fell to six teams that were either ranked when they played them or were ranked later in the season. Keep in mind that four of these teams were or are still members of the Top 10.

The list is impressive and scary: Auburn (remember the goal-line stand), LSU (a 13-point loss), Georgia, South Carolina (a two-point decision), Alabama and Arkansas.

Yikes.

Great opponents are a quick way to make a bunch of early-season promise subside, and it is worrisome when you realize you’re waving “bye bye” to nine senior starters and five in the two-deep from the No. 16-ranked squad nationally in terms of experience...especially in the SEC West.

Wisconsin

Is Wisconsin at risk of losing its two-year stranglehold on the Big Ten?

I think there are a thousand reasons to answer yes to that question, and absolutely none of these have anything to do with the Badgers being a “bad” team.

About half the logic would have to come down to an ever-strengthening Big Ten conference (think Michigan, Nebraska, Iowa and eventually Ohio State), and the other portion would come down to matters specific to Madison.

Wisconsin, like Kansas State, wasn’t notably experienced from an overall team standpoint in 2011, but it was stacked from a senior leadership standpoint with 10 returning senior starters and only one from the ever-important two-deep.

The Badgers aren’t likely to be affected as much by senior attrition as others on our list, but what works against them is the fact that they simply play in a tougher league, which makes even the smallest tweak hurt more.

BYU

After announcing their independence from conference membership, BYU seemed to leave the national radar faster than Case Keenum could rack up passing yards.

Yes, BYU's first season as an independent ended with a 9-3 record, which was actually the best among conference-less teams but still brought with it only the prearranged Armed Forces Bowl bid.

But nine wins is nothing to snort at, especially when losses were a one-point road loss at Texas, a blowout batch of ugly versus Utah and a good showing against a fine TCU team.

So what do the Cougars face for the second season of the wacky, in between, “we just went independent” scheduling?

Well, we know for sure that BYU will be without the services of nine senior starters and four in the two-deep, which, while far from catastrophic, will continue to impact a team that will need to win more than 10 games to even register a blip on the national radar as an independent.

Penn State

Penn State’s issues going into the 2012 season are complex and involve institutional concerns that transcend football.

That said, there will presumably still be games played next season, and they’ll be Big Ten contests played with and against quality athletes from around the country.

Penn State had nine senior starters and three in the two-deep coming into 2011, meaning that leadership will be hit at least marginally hard, but beyond those concerns are those of filling the head coaching position, which dramatically affects recruiting and momentum.

The Nittany Lions will receive a lion’s share of media attention as they hit the field in 2012, but from a purely football perspective it’s difficult to believe that they won’t suffer at least some setbacks.

I think it’s important to point out that not all of these “fading” elements will involve the off-field issues that have rocked our nation.

Navy

Navy is a team whose poor win output in 2011 somewhat defies logical assumptions that senior leadership will at least create an environment where winning is more probable.

It’s too simple to say that seniors equal wins, but it’s also not logical to deny that leadership matters in the winning equation, especially when you’re dealing with young, maturing men who are aged 18 to 22.

Navy’s 5-7 finish is its worst since going 2-10 in 2002 and is bewildering from an experience standpoint, as the 2012 Midshipmen were like Kansas State and Wisconsin in that though they didn’t return an overall deep package, they were senior-heavy in a big way.

Navy brought back 15 senior starters this year and tacked on five in the two-deep, making it perhaps the most senior-happy team in the entire nation.

This explains why the Middies were the least penalized team in the country but makes you scratch your head when you consider six consecutive losses and a late-season disaster at San Jose State.

What it means for 2012 is that Navy will have to get back into winning form with a lot less leadership on board.

Ohio State

Ohio State presents a different fading scenario that is not dissimilar in broad strokes to that of Penn State but in terms of specifics couldn’t be further from the goings-on in State College.

There is no logical approach to arguing that Ohio State’s football fortunes will fade from a long-term sense, but one quick glance westward to the campus of USC will make you quickly realize what a postseason ban can do to a season.

The Buckeyes will have the palpable excitement of hiring and bringing to their sidelines Urban Meyer but will in reality be playing only for respect and experience in 2012.

They won’t face the loss of senior leadership other teams on our list will be hamstrung with, but they will fade out of the national spotlight only because they can’t play for a Big Ten title or a thick, juicy slice of the BCS pie.

Fade? Yes.

Go away? No.

Buckeye fans need to consult the men and women of Troy on how to emotionally approach their 2012 season...no matter how you slice it, it won’t be the same.

A 10-2 record? It means nothing—ask USC.