How Will Paul Chryst's Departure Affect the Wisconsin Badgers in 2012?

Success breeds success.

In no other sport is a team as beholden to its past successes than in college football. Decades of winning builds large fan bases, which in turn fill athletic department coffers and sets a school up to win and win even more. That is to say nothing of the effect of tradition on a team's television marketability.

It is why Notre Dame can continue to sign top ten recruiting classes year in and year out despite always being "almost back" but never really getting there. It is why Ohio State gets a Sugar Bowl nod in 2010 over a Michigan State team coming off of a decade of irrelevance. It is why Michigan, Penn State and Ohio State can fill stadiums the size of small cities seven or eight Saturdays a year.

But success at the highest levels becomes hard to sustain. Call it regression to the mean, or simply the fact of the matter that everyone gets up more for a game against the conference power than the doormat.

One of the near absolute certainties in college football is that if a coaching staff is wildly successful anymore, it won't stick together. The massive turnover in lower and middle tier programs creates a strong need for new coaches to step in, and on the off chance they aren't tired retreads (Bob Davie) or completely bat-shit crazy hires made seemingly just to drive a fanbase insane (Jim Mora) then there is a good chance the new coach is going to be a former coordinator at a high level school.

Wisconsin fans are getting a taste of this right now. If a coordinator does as well as Paul Chryst has at Wisconsin, odds are he is going to get an offer to become a head coach sooner rather than later.

Paul Chryst hasn't just done well; he has put together one of the best offenses in the country the past two years, developed high-level draft picks and put together the kind of scoring attack that can see a team drop 70 or more points three times in a season and a player challenge a record previously thought to be unbreakable (Barry Sanders' single-season touchdown record).

In the past two years the Badgers offense has averaged 41.5 and 44.6 points, 450 and 466 yards per game, while rushing for nearly 5.5 yards per attempt each year. The Badgers only scored in the 20s twice this year (28 vs. Illinois, 29 vs. Ohio State) while putting up 31 and 42 points on a stellar Michigan State defense in two meetings.

All that success has made Chryst a hot commodity on the coaching market, and he finally accepted a job as the head coach of Pittsburgh—now on its fourth in a year.

What Chryst will be able to accomplish in Pittsburgh is hard to say exactly. The program has spent the last decade either putting together seasons that show promise for the next year, or disappointing on the optimism of the offseason. Certainly Pitt has a long history of strong pro-style attacks and a solid brand name. 

Also, moving to the ACC should help increase its profile while the turmoil in State College will make recruiting in western Pennsylvania an easier task. Still, the water is murky. Pitt hasn't won a national title since 1976 and has only won the Big East title twice in the last 30 years (the first, in 2004 saw coach Walt Harris immediately fired for his trouble). These are long-term questions. The short-term ones reside in Madison, Wisconsin.

First, the loss of Chryst on the staff has the potential to be very damaging. It has been his guiding hand that has led the Wisconsin offense to its current position near the top of every relevant offensive stat category, and any transition has the ability to set the unit back.

Amazingly, Wisconsin was able to improve on its 2010 season despite losing a thousand-yard rusher, a two-year starter at quarterback and three offensive linemen to the draft (including first-round pick Gabe Carimi). With most of the pieces set to return in 2012, the offense would have been well prepared to move forward under Chryst. Whoever succeeds him will need to quickly get the hang of the team (not impossible, as evidenced by Oklahoma State).

The best choice for stability in the offense is current offensive line coach Bob Bostad. Bostad has been on Wisconsin's staff since 2005—first as a tight ends coach for three years before being promoted to offensive line coach—and has been the run game coordinator since 2007 (a title that you would only get in Wisconsin. God bless, 'em). 

In the last five seasons Wisconsin is one of five teams to have averaged over 200 yards rushing, and in the last two years alone Bostad has seen 11 of his linemen recognized with all-Big Ten honors.

Bostad may be a good fit, but it brings up the second issue Wisconsin will need to deal with. Who coaches the quarterbacks?

This may seem insignificant in light of the bigger question of offensive coordinator, but that is shortsighted. While the Badgers offense is known primarily for its pounding run game, the quarterback position under Chryst has been an important aspect in the success of the offense. In the past three years Wisconsin has been 29th, fourth and second in pass efficiency. Two of those years came with Scott Tolzien, a good but limited quarterback, leading the offense.

Wisconsin has only averaged around 200 yards per game passing, but the high efficiency allows the Badgers to take advantage of defenses gearing up to stop the run. Someone like Bostad could conceivably take over the offense and keep the running game churning at nearly the same rate based solely on the fact that most everyone returns.

But if the passing game suffers it could mean a larger regression than anyone in Madison is comfortable with. A highly efficient passing game is the difference between a very good offense and the elite unit that Wisconsin currently has.

Compounding these problems is the final issue. Who will the quarterback even be?

In most cases this would have very little to do with the departure of the offensive coordinator. However, Wisconsin's recent success with "free agent" Russell Wilson seemed to open the door to potential transfers from other quarterbacks with a grad school exception in hand and a dream to play in the Rose Bowl.

The latest interest came from former Notre Dame signal caller Dayne Crist. However, Crist made his final decision almost immediately after Chryst was announced as the new Pittsburgh head coach, and he chose Kansas over Wisconsin.

This is almost undoubtedly because of Chryst's departure, and now the Badgers are faced with a situation where one year starter Russell Wilson will be handing the reins of the most powerful offense in the Big Ten to a player yet to be named but also yet to have any real game experience at all.

The two upperclassmen in the running are both battling serious injury problems. Redshirt junior Jon Budmayr has been dealing with a nerve issue in his elbow all season, and redshirt senior Curt Phillips has had multiple knee injuries during his career. Neither look like a safe answer. That leaves a pair of sophomores—Joel Stave and Joe Brennan—or 3-star recruit Bart Houston.

Wisconsin has plenty to worry about before then with a Rose Bowl appearance coming in less than two weeks (a game that Chryst will coach in), but how Bret Bielema handles this offseason could have a huge impact on how far or if at all the Wisconsin offense regresses in 2012.

Lead image courtesy of espn.com.