Independence Bowl: News, Notes and Analysis for North Carolina vs. Missouri

Monday’s Independence Bowl, pitting North Carolina against Missouri, hasn’t been getting a lot of national publicity over the past few weeks, since the Tar Heels and the Tigers both underachieved and finished 7-5 this season. But with the type of talent that both of these teams possess, this game has the chance to be one of the best and most entertaining non-BCS games of the bowl season.

Both teams enter this game as change looms on the horizon for 2012, and it will be very interesting to see which squad can build some early momentum for next year’s campaign.

This will be Missouri’s last game as a member of the Big 12, before the Tigers head off into SEC waters next year.

North Carolina will also have to get used to a few changes in 2012, as Southern Miss coach Larry Fedora and his staff will take over the Tar Heels after the conclusion of the bowl game.

As for the game itself, this will be a battle between two teams that didn’t play up to their potential in 2011. The talent was there this year, but the results weren’t.

Both teams have built-in excuses as to why they didn’t win as many games as they should have.

North Carolina had to deal with the sudden firing of head coach Butch Davis right before the season started, while Missouri had to play one of the toughest schedules in the country, which included eight opponents that were ranked in the BCS top 25 at some point in the season.

The time for looking back on the season and making excuses has passed, though, and it’s now time for both teams to focus in on their final game of the season and try to notch one more victory to finish off the year right and go into the offseason in encouraging fashion.

One of the most interesting factors to watch in this game will be the quarterback duel between two first-year starting sophomore signal-callers, James Franklin of Missouri and Bryn Renner or North Carolina.

Franklin and Renner have both had their fair share of ups and downs this season, but both look like they’re destined for big things in 2012.

Franklin, who is one of the most athletic quarterbacks in the country, totaled 3,610 yards of offense and accounted for 33 touchdowns this season, and he gave us glimpses of the type of star player he could become in 2012.

Renner, who is more of a pure pocket passer, completed 69 percent of his passes for 2,769 yards and 23 touchdown strikes in his first year at the helm of the Tar Heels’ offense.

Both quarterbacks will have the benefit of going up against soft secondaries, as the Tar Heels give up an average of 246 passing yards per game, which ranks 90th in the nation, while Missouri is right behind the them at No. 91, giving up an average of 247 passing yards per game.

But Franklin is the one who is going to have to deal with the intimidating North Carolina defensive front seven, which includes standouts like DE Quinton Coples, DT Sylvester Williams and linebackers Zach Brown and Kevin Reddick, who are all future high NFL draft picks.

This game could come down to which quarterback plays the most efficient and makes the fewest mistakes, but Franklin and Renner won’t be the only two players to watch in the Independence Bowl.

WR Dwight Jones, who was reinstated on Wednesday after briefly being declared ineligible by the NCAA, and TE Michael Egnew are two huge receiving threats who can really put pressure on a secondary.

Jones and Egnew will both be playing in the NFL next year, and they’ll both be looking to impress the pro scouts with their performance in this game.

They won’t be the only ones, though.

North Carolina DE Quinton Coples and LB Zach Brown both have aspirations of being first-round picks in the 2012 draft, and they could both use a big performance in this game to solidify their stock.

On paper, these defenses are about as evenly matched as they could possibly be, but Missouri is the one that holds the advantage on offense, as the Tigers average 32.2 points and 472 yards per game, while the Tar Heels average a respectable 28.3 points and 396 yards per game.

Ultimately, I think this game will come down to which offensive difference-maker can make the most big plays.

For Missouri, that’s dual-threat quarterback James Franklin, and for North Carolina, that’s freshman sensation running back Giovani Bernard.

After missing his entire freshman season with a knee injury, Bernard bounced back without a problem in 2011, as he broke onto the ACC scene, rushing for 1,222 yards, scoring 14 touchdowns and hauling in 39 passes for 326 yards.

Franklin and Bernard are the two top playmakers in the Independence Bowl, and I think the outcome will likely come down to which team gets the most out of their biggest offensive weapon.

I’m a fan of both Franklin and Bernard, and both look they’re going to be stars in 2012, but I really liked what I saw out of Franklin during the latter part of the season, with the exception of his three-interception performance against Kansas in the season finale.

If Franklin plays up to his potential, and doesn’t get scared off by Coples, Williams and the rest of the North Carolina defensive line, I think Missouri will come out on top down in Shreveport.

Prediction: Missouri 30, North Carolina 20