2012 MLB Free Agency: Yu Darvish and 25 Most Overrated Offseason Targets

As the MLB free agency season slowly winds down, fans take a step back from the aptly-named "hot stove" and just take in the metaphorical aroma of all the deals and/or trades that have occurred this offseason. 

Some players have been inked to giant contracts that are worth the talent being paid for, as in the case of Albert Pujols going to the Los Angeles Angels. 

In other cases, some teams have broken the bank for fairly one-sided talent, which we will discuss soon.

One notable case of a team breaking the bank for one player is the Texas Rangers' record $51.7 million posting fee to talk to Japanese pitching sensation Yu Darvish (pictured). 

For those unfamiliar with the posting system, the Rangers paid that money to Darvish's current team, the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters, just to speak with the righty ace.  Now, on top of that money, they will need to negotiate a major league contract with Darvish, who is expected to command a hefty sum for his services. 

All in all, this could turn out to be a $100 million investment for a player who has never once played in the tough MLB.

That being said, let's take a look at Darvish and the 25 most overrated targets (via free agency or trade) of the offseason.

No. 25: Marco Scutaro

A couple of weeks ago, NBC Sports reported that the Colorado Rockies were interested in Boston Red Sox infielder Marco Scutaro. 

The 10-season veteran has been solid in two years with the Red Sox, providing a fairly consistent bat as well as a good clubhouse presence.

Yet, if the Rockies think that he is an offseason prize, they are wrong. 

Sure, Scutaro has a decent bat, but his defense isn't what one would call stellar. 

Since joining the Red Sox, Scutaro has made 33 errors, primarily playing shortstop.

Thus, with his $6 million salary along with the fact that he's 36 years old, the fact that teams seem to legitimately be interested in obtaining his services seems kind of astonishing. 

There are surely some younger and better gloves out there.

No. 24: Joe Saunders

Recently, the Arizona Diamondbacks non-tendered southpaw starter Joe Saunders, thus making him a free agent. 

The team is looking to re-sign him at a lower price, but Saunders has also drawn interest from teams like the Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox, according to ESPN's Jim Bowden.

That being said, let's take a look at both Detroit and Boston.

Detroit is looking to get a little extra oomph so that they can get back to the World Series while Boston is just a hot mess and needs a makeover. 

Thus, to fill said needs, both teams are looking at a pitcher with a career 4.16 ERA and fairly average WHIP of 1.37.

Saunders is not a bad pitcher by any means, but the type of role that the Tigers and Red Sox need him to fill may leave the respective front offices and fanbases disappointed when push comes to shove. 

It's as though they have such high expectations for him that are just destined not to be met.

No. 23: Daniel Murphy

Earlier this month, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that the New York Mets were shopping utility-man extraordinaire (primarily second baseman) Daniel Murphy. 

The lefty was hitting .320 in 109 games for the team last season before going down with a serious knee injury, the same one that caused him to miss all of 2010.

That being said, once a baseball player's knees go, that could be the beginning of the end. 

This is sad in Murphy's case as he will be just 27 years old come Opening Day.  Thus, why would any team want to acquire a man whose body could be a ticking time bomb? 

I understand that last year's batting average is attractive, but there's a limit.

On top of that, Murphy's defense is very suspect. 

Last season alone, in time seen at first, second, third base and even the outfield, he made 10 errors. 

I don't care if he's fully recovered and having a great spring training, this is a man who just screams overrated.

No. 22: Joel Pineiro

Prior to the 2010 season, Joel Pineiro signed a two-year deal worth $16 million to pitch for the Los Angeles Angels. 

He was coming off of a decent 2009 campaign that saw him go 15-12 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP for the St. Louis Cardinals.  Pineiro also happened to throw 214 innings that year.

With the Angels, the Puerto-Rican hurler was constantly injured and went 17-14 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in just 298 innings pitched.

Today, rumor has it that the Yankees have reached out to Pineiro and his agent. 

I'm sorry, but the fact that some teams are even deeming him worthy of a major league contract is laughable.  If anything, he should get a minor league deal and hope to make the rotation out of spring training.

Can the man still pitch?  Probably.  Is he worth a major-league deal?  Not by a long shot.

No. 21: Jeff Francis

During his time with the Colorado Rockies, I figured left-hander Jeff Francis to be a good pitcher whose stats were just victims of the hitter-friendly Coors Field. 

In six seasons in a Rockies uniform, Francis went 55-50 with a 4.77 ERA and a less-than-average 1.43 WHIP and missed all of 2009 to recover from shoulder surgery. 

Thus, when Francis signed a one-year deal with the Kansas City Royals, I had a hunch that his ERA and WHIP would drop in a fairly neutral park.

Instead, Francis proved to be just plain bad.  He went 6-16 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, proving that it wasn't Coors Field that was his bug-a-boo.

Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports reports that the Minnesota Twins are interested in the lefty, but he is far from the ace that the team needs. 

Sure, he'll be playing in a decent pitcher's park in Target Field, but is not worth the hype that may be brewing in the Twin Cities.

He's essentially AJ Burnett, but minus the occasional good start.

No. 20: Cody Ross

Earlier this offseason, free-agent outfielder Cody Ross was seeking a three-year deal. 

Now, according to David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Ross only wanted that length to stay with the San Francisco Giants and would seek a two-year deal from other teams.

Ross plays a decent outfield and is a good clubhouse presence, but whether or not he is worth a multi-year deal is questionable. 

Last season, in 121 games, he hit just .240 with 14 home runs and 52 RBI.  As a whole, he is an average player.

That being said, it kind of makes sense as to why teams aren't drooling over the man. 

Sure, he was a valuable member of the Giants team that won the World Series in 2010, but players are paid to be effective for all six months of the regular season, not just a one month (or less) stretch of playoff ball.

At this point, it looks as though that is what Ross is asking for: money based on playoff performance.

No. 19: Brad Penny

Looking at his career stats, it seems obvious that Brad Penny's stuff is better suited to the National League than it is to the American League. 

Last year, as an innings-eater in the back end of the Detroit Tigers' rotation, Penny went 11-11 with a horrific 5.30 ERA and even more horrifying 1.56 WHIP.

He is only 33 years old and probably still has some gas left in the tank, but the fact that any team would even considering adding this guy to their roster for a guaranteed salary is just plain shocking. 

To give you a better idea, his offseason has been more about his split from Karina Smirnoff and less about which teams would be interested in signing him for 2012.

No. 18: Placido Polanco

Placido Polanco isn't so much overrated as he is aging, but the fact that some teams actually want to trade for him is pretty crazy. 

Earlier in the month, ESPN's Jayson Stark reported that the Phillies were "just listening" on offers for the veteran infielder, as trading him away would give them the opportunity to sign Aramis Ramirez.  Yet, Ramirez chose to sign with the Milwaukee Brewers and Polanco stayed in the City of Brotherly Love.

Still, I don't understand why some teams were so interested in Polanco.  The man plays good defense and hits alright for average, but is injury prone and is now 36 years old, not to mention due $7.25 million next year.

Don't get me wrong, the man is a good veteran presence to have around.  Yet, if you're a team needing infield depth and looking to win, there are far better men out there than Polanco.

No. 17: Carlos Quentin

Following a disappointing 2011, the Chicago White Sox are in full-on housecleaning/rebuilding mode and looking to deal some of their top players in exchange for young talent. 

One of the men who GM Kenny Williams has made very available is outfielder Carlos Quentin, who last year hit .254 with 24 home runs and 77 RBI in 118 games.

According to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, the San Diego Padres are a team interested in the 29-year-old's services.  Yet, I hate to say it, but Quentin is overrated.

First off, he is incredibly injury-prone.  He has never played more than 131 games in a season and no matter where he goes, durability will always be an issue.

On top of that, Quentin isn't exactly what one would call a well-rounded hitter.  He hits home runs or makes an out.  That's about it.

Throw in the fact that a trade to the Padres would mean playing in the extremely pitcher-friendly Petco Park, and the team would not get such a good return on investment considering how Quentin would probably depart via free agency after 2012.

No. 16: Hisashi Iwakuma

In all sports, particularly baseball and basketball, I'm always skeptical of teams' interests in bringing international players to the United States, particularly with Japanese players coming to the MLB. 

Baseball is very different in Japan, with smaller ballparks and a focus on slap-hitting rather than pulling the ball, not to mention the fact that all travel is done by train and Monday is a universal day off.

That being said, it's going to be interesting to see how the free agency of Japanese pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma pans out. 

In 11 seasons split between the Kintetsu Buffaloes and Rakuten Golden Eagles, the right-hander went 101-62 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.  According to Twins beat reporter Rhett Bollinger, Minnesota is interested in Iwakuma.

While I'm sure that Iwakuma is talented, teams should be careful when negotiating with him.  Keep in mind, the Oakland Athletics won his posting rights last offseason for $19.1 million and couldn't agree to terms with him, so you know that he's asking for a lot.

However, for any GMs that may be reading this, take this into account:  In his 11 years playing in Japan, Iwakuma only pitched more than 150 innings in six of his seasons. 

Durability could be a question, and while fans tend to get excited over the idea of players coming over from overseas, they should tread softly when it comes to Iwakuma.

No. 15: Coco Crisp

Coco Crisp is a fine outfielder with blazing speed. 

The problem is that he's so unpredictable a player that trying to appraise his value can be like finding a needle in a haystack. 

In 2011, playing for the Oakland A's, Crisp hit an average .264 while leading the AL with 49 steals.

Yet, Crisp also played in 136 games and missed some time due to injury.  It was the first time since 2008 that he had played more than 100 games in a season.

In terms of where he'll end up next season, Mark J. Miller of Yahoo! Sports reports that the St. Louis Cardinals could be suitors. 

Given Crisp's durability plus his desire for a multi-year deal, his being overrated and him not realizing it may make him one of the last free agents to sign.

No. 14: Mitch Moreland

Earlier this month, George A. King III of the New York Post reported that the Texas Rangers were discussing the possibility of trading first baseman Mitch Moreland to the Tampa Bay Rays for starter Wade Davis. 

As good as Moreland is, he is not worth that price, though Davis himself is average at best.

If anything, Moreland is worth a low-to-mid level prospect. 

He's only 26 and has already seemed to hit his peak. 

In 2011, he hit .259 with 16 home runs and 51 RBI in 134 games. 

Given how he stands 6'2" and weighs 235 pounds, he should be mashing the hell out of the ball in the Rangers' hitter-friendly stadium.

That being said, and I apologize to all Rangers fans in saying this, but Moreland is probably one of the most overrated hitters in baseball. 

Sure, he's good at getting on base, but a walk or HBP means nothing with runners on first and second, two out in the bottom of the ninth and your team's weakest hitter is on deck.

No. 13: Hanley Ramirez

Don't get me wrong, Hanley Ramirez is a great player with a variety of talents that would be beneficial to any team.  Yet, he is such a head case and is currently throwing a hissy-fit over having to switch to third base with the arrival of Jose Reyes. 

It has gotten to the point that the Miami Marlins have actually discussed Ramirez with the Boston Red Sox.

I'm not saying that Ramirez's talent is overrated.  He is a fine athlete who gives his all at the plate.  Yet, with his volatile attitude, you have to wonder if he's worth the headache, let alone the contract.

No. 12: Matt Garza

According to Jim Bowden, the Padres are interested in trading for Matt Garza of the Chicago Cubs. 

I'm going to play GM right now and say that while there are certain things about the hard-throwing righty that I do like, there are also some stats that make me doubt trading a top prospect for him.

Garza can eat innings and post a decent ERA, but his tendency to give up the home run is a bit out there. 

He has given up 100 total home runs in his young six-season career, but 67 of them (two-thirds) have been given up over the past three years.

Even if he were playing in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park, this stat is one that would concern me, especially since the Padres offense isn't exactly what one would call strong. 

Given how he is set to earn about $9 million through arbitration, Garza is overrated, but less so than others.

No. 11: Casey Blake

After a forgettable 2011 with the Los Angeles Dodgers, I figured that 38-year-old Casey Blake would retire. 

Instead, he signed a new contract with the Colorado Rockies yesterday, a one-year deal worth $2 million plus another million in performance bonuses.

I'm going to go ahead and assume that the thin Rocky Mountain air is getting to Colorado GM Dan O'Dowd's head, seeing as how Blake hit just .252 with four home runs and 26 RBI in just 63 games last season. 

Simply put, while his bat may still have some pop, Blake is getting old.

After last season, he deserves nothing more than a one-year deal without incentives, and if not that then a minor league deal. 

Either way, with the Rockies looking to get younger, this move could come back to bite them, as Blake's best days are behind him.

No. 10: Carlos Pena

As a Scott Boras client, it's no secret that first baseman Carlos Pena will end up being paid more than what he is worth. 

He plays great defense—having won a Gold Glove with the Rays in 2008—but his offensive game is very one-sided.

Simply put, Pena does one of three things when up to bat: hits a home run, walks or strikes out. 

Last season, playing for the Chicago Cubs, he hit .225 with 28 home runs and 80 RBI while striking out 161 times.  Yet, his OBP was a very impressive .357.

MLB Network's Jon Heyman reported that the Cardinals could be in on Pena and Boras himself said that his client would receive multi-year offers, but I'm not so sure. 

Today's teams want a first baseman what will hit for power as well as average, on a consistent basis no less, and Pena just doesn't do that.

Thus, the fact that he would even receive a multi-year deal after his performance last season is absurd.

No. 9: Jorge Soler

At 19 years old, there's no doubt that outfielder and Cuban defector Jorge Soler has a future in major league baseball. 

He is a five-tool player with a high ceiling, but still needs some time to develop his skills.

Yet, that high ceiling combined with his free agency is what makes Soler overrated. 

Teams in need of outfield depth will offer to pay him a lot of money if he signs with them, so we're talking about a player who could be paid millions of dollars a year to just develop in the minors.

No matter how you look at it, the man is still just 19 years old and there is always the possibility that he could be a bust. 

Thus, unless the right deal is reached, this man who we've never seen play shall remain overrated.

No. 8: Yoenis Cespedes

While we're on the subject, let's talk about another Cuban free agent in outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. 

Here's a player who is also a five-tool talent like Soler, and most MLB fans have yet to see him play.

Yet, as a free agent, it is already rumored that the 26-year-old will demand an expensive contract. 

One team official estimated that the total value of Cespedes' contract would be between $25-45 million, if not more than that.

While I get excited about international talent as much as the next fan, I can't help but raise a red flag on Cespedes. 

Sure, he has released a video that showcases his talents in great detail, but that doesn't take away from the fact that he has never faced MLB pitchers.

Like any prospect, local or international, there remains the possibility that he may bust and thus become a waste of money.

No. 7: John Danks

Another name being tossed around in the White Sox housecleaning is that of lefty starter John Danks. 

The New York Yankees inquired on him earlier in the offseason, but GM Kenny Williams asked for prospects Jesus Montero and Manny Banuelos in return.

I'm sorry, but after looking at Danks' stats, there is no way he is worth two top prospects. 

Yes, Danks usually posts a respectable ERA (4.03 career) and is good for 10-15 wins, but his pitching repertoire is a recipe for giving up home runs.  In just five seasons, the southpaw from Texas has given up 108 longballs.

Thus, if Kenny Williams thinks he'll get two top prospects for Danks, he's simply crazy.

No. 6: Roy Oswalt

Roy Oswalt isn't overrated in that he's a bad pitcher, but in that his body is made of chalk. 

Last season, a bad back limited him to 23 starts in which he posted a 9-10 record with a 3.69 ERA and career-worst 1.34 WHIP. 

When the offseason began, he was said to be looking for a three-year deal.  However, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reported yesterday that Oswalt had dropped that demand and was now seeking a one-year deal.

While I'll admit that Oswalt is worth a one-year contract, the fact that he had the nerve to demand a three-year deal is absurd. 

He is 34 now and will turn 35 next August and given his injury history, no team in their right mind would give him a three-year deal.

He's good, but not that good.

No. 5: Gio Gonzalez

A heavily discussed name on the trade market this offseason has been that of Oakland A's lefty Gio Gonzalez, who has drawn interest from a number of teams. 

Sure enough, in keeping with the team's Moneyball approach, Oakland GM Billy Beane is demanding top prospects in return for the 26-year-old.

As good as Gonzalez has been the past two seasons—going 31-21 with a 3.17 ERA—there are a few things that need to be taken into consideration. 

First, he plays in a ballpark that immensely favors pitchers. 

Second, and most important, his WHIP would scare the hell out of me if I were a GM.

For his career, Gonzalez has posted a 1.41 career WHIP and led the majors in 2011 with 91 walks.  The kid has talent, but can be a wee bit unpredictable.

That being said, if a GM wants to acquire top prospects, the player he gives up to get them should be the model of consistency in any environment.  Gonzalez certainly can be that player, but just isn't right now.  Thus, he is overrated.

No. 4: Josh Willingham

Josh Willingham hit just .246 for the Oakland A's in 2011 and struck out 150 times, but he also hit a career-high 29 home runs and drove in a career-high 98 RBI.  As a result, the Minnesota Twins signed him to a three-year deal worth $21 million.

Part of me sees why the Twins made this deal, seeing as how Willingham made that home run total in a notorious pitcher's park, the Oakland Coliseum. 

Seeing as how the Twins play in the equally pitcher-friendly Target Field, perhaps team management feels that Willingham won't have trouble adjusting.

Yet, here is how Willingham is overrated via this contract.  Twins management seems to have forgotten that he will turn 33 in February, just before the start of Spring Training. 

On top of that, he has never played more than 144 games in a season and hasn't even done that since 2007, when he was with the Marlins.

No. 3: Wandy Rodriguez

Ever since last August, the Houston Astros have wanted to trade lefty starter Wandy Rodriguez. 

That has proven to be tough since he is due $22.6 million over the next two seasons, plus has an option for 2014. 

Perhaps the biggest roadblock in the trade, according to Danny Knobler of CBS Sports, is Houston's unwillingness to eat any of Rodriguez's salary.

However, even if I was a GM desperate for pitching, I'd be hesitant to trade for Wandy Rodriguez.  Sure, his ERA is solid, having posted a 3.40 line since 2008, but the WHIP scares me just a bit.

You see, Rodriguez has a career WHIP of 1.34, which is barely average. 

He is a finesse pitcher who relies more on movement than velocity, so whatever he throws always has a shot at being hit in play.  That being said, the fact that the Astros are asking for top prospects in return for him is kind of ridiculous.

No. 2: Jason Kubel

Even though he is a talented lefty bat with power that could help any team, I'll be the first to admit that Jason Kubel is overrated. 

Sure, he's good for around 20-25 home runs a year, but that only means so much. 

The fact remains the Kubel was primarily a DH in Minnesota for the past couple of years and is now playing for the Arizona Diamondbacks in the DH-less National League. 

On Monday, Kubel signed with the team for two years and $15 million, plus an option for a third year.

Simply put, while I think his offense will be solid in Arizona, his defense will be suspect. 

Kubel has been penciled in as the starting left fielder and seeing as how he only played 58 of his 99 games in the outfield last season, it's going to be interesting how he adjusts to being a full-time fielder.

I'm sure he'll be fine, but not to the tune of $15 million over two years.

No. 1: Yu Darvish

Two nights ago, it was announced that the Texas Rangers' $51.7 million bid was the winner in the Yu Darvish posting sweepstakes. 

Team management now has 30 days to negotiate a major league contract with the 25-year-old righty, otherwise the posting fee will be returned and Darvish will spend 2012 playing in Japan. 

Given how Darvish wants a five-year deal worth $75 million, this could prove to be a costly investment should both sides agree to a deal and Darvish turns out to be a bust.

Still, it's hard to argue with Darvish. 

In seven seasons with the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters, he has gone 93-38 with a 1.99 ERA and remarkable 0.98 WHIP. 

His fastball ranges from 92 to 95 mph and also throws a number of other pitches.

Still, given how recent Japanese pitchers such as Daisuke Matsuzaka and Kei Igawa have struggled since coming to the United States, you can't help but think that the hype surrounding Darvish may be a bit much. 

Keep in mind, save for the 2009 World Baseball Classic, most people working in baseball have never seen him play in person.

Thus, with limited experience outside of Japan, committing that much money to Darvish just seems silly to me. 

Sure, he's got a lot of potential, but will he live up to it?  Based on recent history, I'm inclined to think that he won't.