2011 San Francisco 49ers: A Blueprint of How to Defeat the Green Bay Packers

Finally, the national media has picked up on what we here in the Bay Area have known for quite some time. The San Francisco 49ers are for real and are true Super Bowl contenders. I guess it took a "Monday Night Football" game for people to come to this realization, but now they have. 

We still have to take the win for what it's worth. First, it gives the San Francisco 49ers the inside position for the No. 2 seed in the NFC, which is huge. Secondly, it was against a strong Pittsburgh Steelers team with a banged up signal-caller. 

At 11-3, the 49ers have finally proven to the nation that they can hang with the big boys. Now it is time to look at a blueprint for San Francisco to actually defeat the Green Bay Packers and head to their first Super Bowl in nearly two decades. 

Win the Final Two Games and Get the No. 2 Seed

In order for the 49ers to defeat the Green Bay Packers, they actually have to make it to the NFC Championship Game. The road to that ultimate collision will be much easier if San Francisco acquires a first-round bye and home playoff game in the divisional round. 

This will not be easy. San Francisco has to travel to the Pacific Northwest to take on a Seattle Seahawks team that is playing extremely good football right now and still has an outside shot at a wild-card berth. Keep in mind that the 49ers struggled to show up against Arizona two weeks ago and may find it hard to keep up the passion that they played with against Pittsburgh on Monday. 

Pretty easy equation here. Get that first-round bye and have home field advantage in the second round and the 49ers will probably get to the NFC Championship Game. If not, the road will be extremely difficult. 

Aldon Smith and the Pass Rush

If the Packers' loss to Kansas City on Sunday showed us one thing, it is that a truly elite pass-rusher can cause fits for Aaron Rodgers and Co. Additionally, Aldon Smith showed a national audience that he has the ability and talent to be that elite pass-rusher. 

Consequently, the Packers are hurting big time along the offensive line. Both Bryan Bulaga and Chad Clifton are banged up and may not be 100 percent for the remainder of the season, while Derek Sherrod has been lost for the remainder of 2011. 

Put pressure on Aaron Rodgers, take away the timing routes and force him to step up in the pocket in the face of this pressure, and the Packers passing game could be marginalized enough for the 49ers to hang with them. 

Healthy Return of Patrick Willis

Larry Grant has played some extremely good football in the stead of Patrick Willis, but let's face it: No. 52 is an absolute beast and the 49ers front seven is the best in the league with him in.

If Willis is able to return at full health, which is extremely likely, the 49ers will be able to stop the Packers rushing attack and force their offense to be one-dimensional.

With a struggling Packers offensive line and the progression of Aldon Smith, this spells trouble for Green Bay heading into the playoffs. 

Offensive Line Shows More Consistency

Let's face it, the likelihood of the 49ers obtaining home-field advantage throughout the playoffs is extremely unlikely. The Packers would have to lose their remaining two games and the 49ers would have to win their final two. In short, it isn't happening. 

This means that the 49ers offensive line will not be playing in the friendly confines of Candlestick Park when they face a strong Green Bay Packers pass rush. Over the course of the 49ers last two road games, their offensive line has yielded 14 sacks. This cannot happen if they expect to be able to get enough offense to stay with Green Bay. 

The 49ers offensive line needs to play like it did against Pittsburgh on Monday night in order for Alex Smith to have the time and the 49ers offense to maintain drives.

Turnover Margin....Turnover Margin

Amazingly, the 49ers are plus-25 in turnover margin this season, by far the best in the NFL. On the other hand, the Packers are plus-20 in the same category, second in the league. 

It goes without saying that winning the turnover battle in the NFL means that you will most likely win the game. This is one of the primary reasons these two teams are a combined 24-4 this season. In order for the 49ers to beat Green Bay they need to win the turnover battle and limit mistakes. Considering that Alex Smith ranks among the league's best in hanging on to the ball, one interception per 80 pass attempts in 2011, it isn't out of the realm of possibility that San Francisco will win this battle when all is said and done. 

Their defense just needs to continue playing with a ball-hawking mentality and take chances on the ball when the opportunity presents itself. Obviously a stout pass rush will throw the Packers timing offense out of rhythm and force Rodgers into uncharacteristic mistakes. 

Run the Ball and Control the Time of Possession Battle

Frank Gore has not rushed for 100 yards since the first week in November. Some of this has to do with defenses focusing on the run more and him not being completely healthy. In order for the 49ers to keep Green Bay's offense off of the field, they are going to need to get a big game from Gore. This means that the offensive line is going to have to dominate the trenches. 

Kansas City gave the entire league a blueprint on how to do that. Green Bay could not stop their running game when it counted the most last Sunday. This was extremely surprising considering that the Chiefs were doing this without Jamaal Charles and with a below-average offensive line. 

If San Francisco can dominate the trenches and disable the Packers ability to stop the run, they will probably win the game no matter where it is being played. 

Red Zone, Red Zone and More Red Zone

Let me be clear about this. The San Francisco 49ers will not hang with the Green Bay Packers if they are getting three instead of six the majority of the time. It just won't happen. 

Instead, the 49ers are going to have to put up touchdowns in a possible matchup with the Packers. San Francisco did score touchdowns in their final two red zone possessions against an elite Steelers defense on Monday night. They are going to have to get creative if they hope to repeat this success against Green Bay in the playoffs. Additionally, Alex Smith is going to have to be more accurate in such situations. 

Conclusion

Can the San Francisco 49ers defeat the Green Bay Packers? Yes. Is it likely? Probably not. Still, a combination of the Chiefs victory over Green Bay last Sunday and the 49ers dominating performance against Pittsburgh the following day has given them a blueprint of success in a possible matchup with the Packers. 

I don't want to put the carriage before the horse, but one thing is clear to me. The San Francisco 49ers pose the greatest threat to the Green Bay Packers repeating as NFC Champions this season. They match up extremely well with the defending Lombardi Trophy winner and can get it done if this game were to present itself.