MLB Free Agents 2012: Chicago Cubs Wise Not to Overpay for Yu Darvish

The Chicago Cubs made a bid last week for free agent Japanese pitching phenom Yu Darvish, but in the end it was not enough to win the rights to negotiate with the pitcher. That is a good thing for the Cubs, as Darvish likely will not fulfill the promise that many are expecting.

The Texas Rangers are going to hope that Darvish can fill the void that starting pitcher C.J. Wilson left when he opted to go to the Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim this offseason.

Like Darvish, the Boston Red Sox brought over Daisuke Matsuzaka from Japan at 25 years of age. Matsuzaka presented an opportunity to bring in an experienced arm with much success already in the Japanese professional baseball league, but there was no guarantee at his success translating to the American game.

Darvish and Matsuzaka both turned pro in Japan at the age of 18, both coming in as young players with great expectations. Matsuzaka got off to a better start compared to Darvish in their opening seasons, but both were successful considering their age.

Name - Year	Wins	Loss	ERA	Strikeouts
Matsuzaka - 1999	16	5	2.60	151
Darvish - 2005	5	5	3.53	53

Both players were impressive for their age, but Matsuzaka started off as a much better player at such a young age. Darvish didn't play as many games that season, but he certainly improved the following year when he went 12-5 with an ERA of 2.89. He also had 115 strikeouts that season, and it seemed as if he was going to be moving into the same direction at Matsuzaka.

In the meantime, Matsuzaka digressed in his second year as a starter, going 14-7 with an ERA of 3.97. He also had 144 strikes out that season, seven less then his previous season. Matsuzaka was able to rebound throughout his career in Japan, but he never touched the numbers that Darvish did.

Fast forward to age 25; both Darvish and Matsuzaka were coming off of their best years. Both seasons were career highs for both players in many areas, and it was convincing that they were ready to make the jump to the MLB.

Name - Year	Wins	Losses	ERA	Strikeouts
Matsuzaka - 2006	17	5	2.13	200
Darvish - 2011	18	6	1.44	276

While Darvish was off the charts in 2011, there is no guarantee that he will be a long-term threat as his Japanese counterpart proved that his success will not translate to the American game consistently.

In five seasons with the Boston Red Sox, Matsuzaka has a career record of 49-30 with an ERA of 4.25 and career strikeouts totaling only 596. Compared to his innings pitched, that is only 8.2 strikeouts for every nine innings. More importantly, Matsuzaka has been unable to stay healthy.

Matsuzaka got off to a hot start to begin his MLB career. During his first two seasons, he went 33-15. His most impressive year was his second, in which he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA. There was much promise to the Japanese import, but those expectations would quickly vanish.

During the 2009 season, Matsuzaka suffered from a hip injury, and had troubles on the mound the following season. In 25 starts, he went 9-6 with a 4.49 ERA. He also only struck out 133 batters.

After getting off to a 4-4 start in 2011, Matsuzaka was forced to miss the remainder of the season due to Tommy John surgery. At this point in his career, who knows if he will ever return to that elite status?

This should be the worry for Darvish. He may get off to a hot start early on his MLB career, but he could very much fall apart just like Matsuzaka did. Both pitchers were pitching professionally for about seven years before coming to the MLB. There is no doubt that they have already experience some wear and tear.

Who knows if the same will hold true for Darvish, but going on history of a similar situation, it is a cautionary tale. In the end, the Cubs should be considered lucky that they didn't spend the money on Darvish.

Jeff Chase is a Featured Columnist for the Chicago Cubs and Arizona State Football.