NFL Playoff Picture: The San Francisco 49ers and First or Second Seed

Perhaps in no other sport does a team's seed have as much of an impact on their postseason as in NFL football.

And while a low seed isn't an insurmountable obstacle, as the Packers showed in the playoffs last year, first and second seeds are coveted because they confer a bye and home field advantage to a team. Third and fourth seeds get home field advantage but do not earn a bye while the fifth, sixth and wild card seeds get neither.

With two games left till the playoffs, the 49ers and the New Orleans Saints are fighting for the second seed. What people don't know though is that the 49ers can still take the first overall seed from Green Bay, as they hold the tie breaker over the Packers.

The 49ers, being the unconventional playoff contender that they are, will need all the help that comes with the first seed or second. They will most likely have to beat the Saints AND the Packers to advance to the Super Bowl, which is much easier done at home than at the Superdome or in the frozen tundra.

The 49ers took a big step towards capturing either seed when they beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night after the Packers lost to the Kansas City Chiefs.  

With two games left to play, let's look at the 49ers chances of beating the Packers for the first seed or the Saints for the second seed.

The 49ers play the Seattle Seahawks and the St. Louis Rams, both road games, while the Saints play the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, both games at home.

On paper, the Seahawks appear to be easier opponents than the Falcons. But the Seahawks have been playing good football of late, winning five out of their past six. And Qwest Field is one of the hardest stadiums to play in for visiting teams.

Yes, the Falcons have also been playing good football of late. But no matter how well a team has been playing, the Saints historic offense cannot be stopped, and they are undefeated at the Superdome this season.

The Rams and the Buccaneers are both teams that are reeling and these games should not be a problem for either team. The 49ers control their destiny, as they own the tiebreaker over New Orleans.

If they win their last two games of the season, they will clinch the second seed, no matter what the Saints do.

They can also clinch the second seed if they win in Seattle and the Saints lose to the Falcons. There are other scenarios in which the 49ers can clinch, but you get the point.

If the 49ers have a better record or same record as the Saints, they clinch.

Because the 49ers control their own destiny, and because of the multiple scenarios under which the 49ers can clinch the second seed, I think they 49ers have a good chance of taking it.

Still though, playing the Seahawks in Seattle will be no easy task. The 49ers must play with the same intensity they played with against the Steelers, and not with the lack of intensity they showed in that loss to the Cardinals.

There is only one situation under which the 49ers could clinch the first seed: The Packers lose must their two remaining games while the 49ers win theirs.

The Packers two remaining games are against the Bears and the Lions, both at home.

Before the loss to the Chiefs, these games looked to be in the bag for the Packers. But the Packers weaknesses were exposed in that game, as Kyle Orton threw for almost 300 yards against the 32nd-ranked Packers' pass defense.

The Packers also lost two offensive linemen in that game and will have trouble protecting Rodgers. Speaking of Rodgers, he was not himself. He clearly missed his number one receiver, Greg Jennings, who is not expected to be healthy until the postseason starts.

Even with all of these issues, the Packers still should be able to beat the Bears, who have not won a game in Jay Cutler's absence, and who will have Chris Simms, yes Chris Simms, under center. Though some will argue that the Packers will be playing with less motivation now that their bid for a perfect season has ended, they will still want to clinch that first seed.

Because the 49ers are not in control of their own destiny, and the Packers have an easier remaining schedule, I expect the Packers to clinch the first overall seed. Still, if the Packers were capable of losing to the 6-8 Chiefs, then they are capable of losing to the Bears and Lions.

The 49ers chances of clinching the second seed is much higher than the first seed.

A second seed would mean playing the Packers in Green Bay if they met in the playoffs. After seeing the Packers lose to the Chiefs though, it seems that beating the Packers, even in the tundra, is possible.

In fact, after seeing the Packers weaknesses exposed by the Chiefs, I would go as far as to say that the Packers aren't the best team in the NFC.

That honor belongs to the Saints, and if the 49ers play the Saints, they will need that extra week of rest and a home field advantage to win, which makes clinching the second seed imperative.