Seattle Seahawks: Should They Mortgage Their Future Drafts for a QB in 2012?

Matt Barkley announced he is returning to the University of Southern California for his senior season. This will have a profound impact on the top of the NFL draft, as several teams were expected to attempt to trade into position to draft him...or one of the other top quarterback prospects.

Halfway through the season, most NFL fans thought the Seahawks were cruising to a top draft pick. But winning five of their last six games has Seahawks fans thinking about playoff possibilities instead of draft picks.

Tarvaris Jackson has looked relatively sharp since his injured pectoral muscle has healed. But he hasn't been good enough to make most fans forget about Matt Hasselbeck...let alone an elite draft prospect.

Many fans are anticipating the Seahawks making a bold move in April to draft a quarterback. 

Seattle will almost certainly draft a quarterback in 2012. However, they aren't likely to do so in the first round. They most certainly should not mortgage their future drafts to move up to grab the second-best quarterback.

It is a bit easier to make this call with Barkley's future clear. However, his presence in this draft wouldn't change the approach the Seahawks should take in April. 

I've said all season that Seattle has built a team that is ready to compete now and in the immediate future. In an article that previewed the second-half of the Seahawks season, I was bold enough to project between five and seven wins in their last eight games.

If Seattle can keep most of their young talent in-house, they have the core to ascend to the top of the NFL talent pool in the next three or four years. What they are missing is a franchise quarterback to get them over the top.

Some will argue the only logical step is to leverage their next three or four drafts to get into position to draft Robert Griffin, III...provided he declares for the 2012 draft. After all, Pete Carroll and John Schneider have had a fair amount of success with their picks after the fourth round, making early picks a luxury some feel they can live without.

The cost of moving up is just too much, though. 

According to ESPN's popular draft values, the expected cost for Seattle to move into the top-five would be their first and second round picks from 2012, 2013 and 2014. For those interested in the numbers, please see the Draft Value Chart Summary at the bottom of the article.

In theory, it is easy to give those picks away for an elite quarterback prospect. It isn't quite so easy when looking at what those picks really mean. Looking at recent drafts, it is comparable to Seattle parting with Russell Okung, Earl Thomas, Golden Tate, James Carpenter, John Moffitt and Kris Durham...plus another second-round pick.

It is hard to ignore how much those players mean to this team. It is even harder to consider parting with them for a player with no guarantee of success in the NFL.

Barkley's decision: An insurance policy for the Seahawks 

A month ago, I laid out an approach I believe the Seahawks will take with the quarterback position. It involves signing Matt Flynn as an unrestricted free agent in the upcoming offseason and handing the ball to him.

Seattle's recent success has given them another option to consider.

Certainly they can give Tarvaris Jackson one more season to show if he can be a franchise quarterback, as his contract runs through the 2012 season.

John Schneider can also make a move to sign his former backup quarterback from Green Bay.

Should one of those two shine in 2012, Seattle will know they have the quarterback position wrapped up. 

If 2012 does not produce the desired results, though, Seattle would have more options available in 2013. 

Barkley is certainly a desirable option. However, there are several other top quarterbacks expected to be a part of that draft class, and Barkley returning could make that group even better than 2012.

Landry Jones from Oklahoma hasn't declared for the 2012 draft, and could certainly use another year in college. The status of Griffin III is also unknown. 

Other options include Tyler Wilson from Arkansas, Brock Osweiler from Arizona State, E.J. Manuel from Florida State and Geno Smith from West Virginia.

With Mike Leach taking over as head coach at Washington State, Jeff Tuel could even make a name for himself in 2012, barring a medical hardship waiver.

Fans may grow impatient with the Seahawks putting off a decision on the future of the quarterback position until 2013. Trent Dilfer may have an aneurysm, but he has even started to realize that the Seahawks front office is on the right track.

Some will argue that the Seahawks aren't likely to sign a potentially high-priced free-agent in 2012, only to turn around and draft another quarterback in 2013.

I would contend that is exactly what Pete Carroll and John Schneider would do.

They traded away a third-round pick and other draft capital for Charlie Whitehurst. It seemed clear that he was not the future at the position, prompting them to move on with the signing of Tarvaris Jackson.

The Carolina Panthers also provide an example of a team that isn't afraid to make a quick change. Jimmy Clausen was only given part of one season before they opted to go a different direction with the drafting of Cameron Newton.

There is no doubt the quarterback is the most important position on the field. However, the quarterback alone isn't enough to get it done.

The Green Bay Packers didn't win the Super Bowl in February because they had the best starters in the NFL. They won because they had quality backups to step in and fill positions when they lost players to injuries.

Seattle simply can't afford to part with five to seven top draft picks if they want to become a competitor on the NFL's biggest stage. They are on track to field competitive teams, in large part to much-improved depth on the 2011 squad.

Look for them to continue to build talent while they find their quarterback of the future. Also, don't be surprised if they look to trade away their 2012 second round pick for a first-round selection in 2013. 

Carroll may also write a special "Thank You" on Matt Barkley's Christmas card.

His decision certainly buys Seattle another year to tinker with their direction on the quarterback position. 

Draft Value Chart Summary

Numerical values are tied to each pick in all seven rounds of the draft. The first pick normally has a value of 3,000 points. One can argue the price in 2012 to get Andrew luck is even higher.

The average of positions three and four is 2,000 points. Seattle is projecting around pick 19, which holds a round-one value of 875 points. Their second round pick is worth 390 points, for a total of 1,265 points.

A draft pick from the following season is typically degraded by one round, meaning a 2013 first-round pick is worth the value of a 2012 second-round pick. In theory, that would drop by another round in 2014, but a team that is rebuilding would most certainly prefer a 2014 first-round pick over a round-three selection in 2012. 

Hence, this analysis will hold 2013 values for 2014. That equates to 390 points each for the first-round picks and 175 points for the second round selections.

In total, those six pick end up being worth 2,005 points. For those that like to talk of "trading an entire draft," the seven picks for position 19 are worth 1,567 points.

This would allow Seattle to get into the third or fourth spot, so long as the St. Louis Rams aren't in possession of the pick in question.

There is little chance the two division rivals will work a blockbuster draft trade.