Rebuilding is Over, Toronto Blue Jays' Time is Now: Part II

This is the second of a two-part series, in which I've broken down every aspect of the Toronto Blue Jays, reviewed every area of the ballclub last year, and how it might project this season.

In Part I, I analyzed the position players of the Jays including the bench and the offseason GM J.P Ricciardi put together to help the team. In this part, I will look at the Jays pitching staff top to bottom, including the bullpen and see how it might shake out this season.

The offseason in terms of pitching for the Jays was very quiet. There was no big-name target for the Jays this offseason. In past years, we heard names such as AJ Burnett, Ted Lilly, Gil Meche and others that were targets of the ball club. This offseason, Ricciardi decided that pitching wasnt a main priority and stated many times, that he liked where the club was at, without making many changes in parts with the team.

The only rumour produced this off-season, was the highly debated Alex Rios-Tim Lincecum swap with the San Francisco Giants. My thoughts were mixed on the potential deal, but went it fell through, I breathed a sigh of relief.

However this showed me Ricciardi knows that pitching will win in the MLB and to acquire it is a hard driven bargain in this day in age. Ricciardi was willing to roll the dice on an AllStar OF for an up and coming flame thrower with the Giants. Thank you Brian Sabean for not accepting the trade, because I for one, believe Rios has the potential to be the best OF in all of the AL.

Pitching for the Blue Jays actually last year was a major bright spot. Granted injuries took there tool on the entire staff but it gave some young kids a chance and older veterans stepped into roles that until last year must have been unfamiliar with them. BlueJays pitching was top 5 in ERA and often kept the Jays in games even with the anemic offense the Jays had from May onward.

Starting Rotation:

Roy Halladay # 32 16-7 3.71 ERA- Halladay remained the face of the Blue Jays pitching staff and is a true number one, ace pitcher. He should remain one for the upcoming season and arguably with the departure of Santana could be in for another run at the Cy Young. Being a avid Jays fan for the past ten years, Ive noticed like many others Halladay changes his approach from year to year and makes adjustments that seem to never fail. Although his stuff may quite not be dominant as it was in 2000-2004, when Halladay was a perennial Strikeout type pitcher, Halladay still is a gritty competitor and just has a knack for getting the job done. Hes found that you dont have to strike many guys out to compile quality starts, and often now uses sinking fastballs in and out on hitters to induce groundballs and save his pitch count in order to go deeper into games. If 16-7 with a 3.71 is a so-called down year for Halladay, then who knows what might that stat line would look like with a better year from Halladay. He still pitched over 200 Innings and led the AL with seven complete games. Halladay hit some rough patches last season and had another freakish injury with an emergency appendectomy in early May, Halladay tried to pitch through it, but his performance suffered and his ERA ballooned over 4 for the first time in a few years. However, Halladay finished the season strong and gives the Jays a top-flight number one that competes everytime he steps out on the mound. Halladay is comparable to any other number one starter in the AL and perhaps in all of baseball. Project about 15-20 Wins with an ERA under 3.50 and over 215 innings if he makes all of his starts. Yea, hes not the fantasy stud he used to be with strikeouts and H/9 Innings, but he wont walk anybody and is dependable as any pitcher you can name.

A.J Burnett # 34 10-8 3.75 ERA- Okay, the injury risk is there, yes we all know this. He also has an opt-out clause in his contract this season, leading to speculation he would flee Toronto when the season comes to a close. Ive read other Blue Jays articles stating other pieces of the team such as Rolen or Litsch are the keys to the Jays this season. Well I for one tend to disagree and think Burnett is the key to the Jays for the 08 season. We know that in contract years, performance tends to increase for the better,(Carl Pavano anyone?) so that would be a plus for the Jays, if Burnett could turn it on for a big contract next winter, he would give the Jays perhaps the best 1-2 combo in all of baseball. Burnett's stuff is electric, often reaching 98-100 Mph on the radar gun combining with a biting curve and a changeup that often baffles hitters. Burnett just needs to stay healthy, last year, many in the Jays organization believed it was a mind induced issue that Burnett had with his right shoulder. He was examined and they found nothing wrong with his shoulder but yet Burnett was on the DL twice last season and made just 25 starts. However, when healthy last season, Burnett was a dominant force in the Jays rotation. There was no pitcher any better down the stretch last season and Burnett hopes to build on that heading into the 08 season. All the signs point for a huge year for Burnett, and if he were to put it all together, finally, the Jays would be an instant playoff contender. You heard it here first, but Burnett would get rumblings for the Cy Young this season, giving the Jays 10-15 wins and in the top of the major categories for pitchers in the AL. You can bash me for this all you want, its just my belief.

Dustin McGowan #29 12-10 4.08 ERA- McGowan perhaps has the best upside of any Jays pitcher coming into the season. Due to injuries to starters Gustavo Chacin and the release of Tomo Ohka and John Thomson, McGowan finally got his chance to shine at the big league level. However, for McGowan it was not so pretty at first, in the month of May with his ERA ballooning to over 9 at one point, it was make or break time for McGowan. However, in June he turned it around including a no-hit bid against the NL Champion Colorado Rockies, going 9 innings and allowing just one hit in the final frame. From then on, McGowan became one of the Jays most dependable pitchers. From July to September, McGowan compiled an 8-6 record and lowered his ERA under to 3.84 at one point. McGowan finally showed all the promise we have been hearing about for several years. Like many young pitchers he seemed to hit small little rookie type walls, but last season gave the Jays a vision into the future. Imagine what this kid could do in a full season. Last year gave McGowan the chance to go through the league and see what he could do, with an offseason of training and adjustments, McGowan is primed for a breakout season under the tootlage of Brad Arnsberg, Toronto's pitching coach. With a dominant power arm, similar to Burnett's, McGowan is the most intriuging young pitcher in the Jays organization and provides a solid 1-2-3 punch to the top of the rotation.Expect McGowan to build on last year's numbers making the Jays a threat for postseason play.

Shaun Marcum #28 12-6 4.13 ERA- Here was the biggest surprise of the 2007 season for the Toronto Blue Jays staff. A converted reliever, Marcum became a solid everyday 4th starter for the Jays. Struggling as a reliever in the early going, Marcum was given a chance like McGowan to start in the Jays rotation where he excelled from the very get-go with a no hit 6 innings against Tampa Bay which was not finished due to a limited pitch count. From then on out, Marcum was unbelieveable and gave the Jays quality turns almost every start. He often went 6 or plus innings, limited opposing teams to under 3 runs or less, however, lost many wins due to the lack of production of the Jays lineup. Marcum was perhaps the most snake bit when it came to run support from the offense last season. However, he still managed to earn 12 victories. Marcum's season was cut a couple weeks short due to a knee injury that was cleared up this winter. According to reports, he should be ready to go this spring and should remain as the team's 4th starter. Marcum is a great asset for the Jays. You might watch him pitch and frequently ask yourself, How does he do it? Marcum wont light up the radar gun, but he gets hitters out by using a sinking two seam fastball and a sweeping curve, along with a devastating changeup. One in which I believe was comparable to Johan Santana's changeup. Now im not saying Marcum is a Santana, but the pitch would baffle hitters all year long and Marcum sure does know how to mix it in when he can. Marcum's 12 wins were no fluke and expect more of the same this season. Marcum comes also very cheap giving the Jays one of the better 4th starter options in the AL.

5th Starter-Jesse Litsch, Casey Janssen, Gustavo Chacin?- This perhaps is the biggest question mark/need for this team. Like many other MLB teams, its just hard these days to find quality starting pitching and especially at the bottom slot of the rotation. Guys come and go so often, its almost too hard to follow from year to year and the movement of the bottom of the barrel 5th starters that move about looking for work. Last year that came in the form of Tomo Ohka and John Thomson. However, the Jays went with a different approach this offseason, as stated above and liked what they have in-house to make a run at contention. This spring will be a huge battle between these three pitchers to see how the rotation will fill out. Janssen should only be considered if Bj Ryan is ready to come back to full health, otherwise, he should remain in the pen where he excelled last year. Litsch came in and did a decent job filling in from Mid-May onward, going 7-9 3.81 ERA, however, he has been criticized for not having overpowering stuff. Litsch however, just knows how to get people out and he has at every level. I trust Litsch more than any option here, and his invaluable experience gained last year has to mean for something. I expect him to win out as the 5th starter, and as long as he gives the Jays some innings, everything should be fine concerning this rotation spot. Chacin is coming back from shoulder surgery and I dont expect him to earn a role with the Jays heading into opening day.

Now, perhaps the biggest bright spot of the Jays last season was its tremendous bullpen.

Mid-Relievers/Long Men

Jason Frasor, Brian Tallet, Scott Downs, Brian Wolfe- Now here is where Ricciardi could have gone out and signed a mid-reliever who could be a veteran precense back in the pen. However, I think he did the right move, by not offering silly contracts to overpay for a Longman or middle reliever. Like him, I think the Jays will be fine in this aspect of the season. Frasor is a proven reliever for the Jays, once saving 17 games a few years ago and has experience with the entire league. Although he had a down year last year and was even sent to the minors, I think he will be able to bounce back and be one of the leaders in the Jays pen once again in 2008. He has a power arm, and you cant find enough of that in baseball these days. Frasor can also fill in at closer, if need be, if a rash of injuries were to occur. Brian Tallet, had perhaps a career year last season earning his lowest ERA in his career and also made 48 appearances last season. Often used as a situational lefty, Tallet towards the end of the summer was also trusted to get righties out and held opposing batters to a .215 compiled batting average against, the lowest of his career and on the Jays. Tallet is not overpowering but uses a sweeping slider and spots his fastball. He should remain in his current role and gives the Jays a valuable lefty in the pen. Scott Downs also had a career year last season and even earned a contract extension in the off-season, a good move, for the Jays. Downs was in the top 10 in apperances last season with 81 in the AL and had a 2.17 ERA. An ERA like that for a reliever is quite the accomplishment. Yes, one could argue, it was his lone career year like anyone else might have, but I beg to disagree. Downs has also had a knack for getting people out and gives the Jays another lefty option in the pen, who can also serve as an emergency spot starter, if an injury were to occur. Downs is a key cog for the Jays and will be important if the Jays are to make a serious run at October baseball. Last but not least, Brian Wolfe, basically a throw in the Lyle Overbay trade two years ago, was perhaps the biggest surprise in the bullpen last season. A mid season call up, Wolfe along with Downs became a consistent option for John Gibbons to turn to when needed from May onward. With a 2.98 to finish the season, Wolfe, with a solid spring should earn more trust from the manager and earn more innings with the Jays this season. He gives the Jays another power arm out of the pen and provides versatility for the club.

Set up/Closer

Casey Janssen? Jeremy Accardo, BJ Ryan, Brandon League

This spring will determine Janssen's spot on the Jays staff. If BJ Ryan can not bounce back healthy for opening day, Janssen will likely remain as the key setup man for the Jays this season. He finished with a 2.35 ERA and appeared in 70 games often giving the Jays quality pitching when entering in the 7th and 8th innings. Not overpowering by any stretch, Janssen mixes his pitches well and uses deception in his delievery to keep hitters off balance. In 2006, Janssen came in as a starter and went 6-10 so, he has experience as SP as well, making Janssen the most versatile and interesting pitchers on the Jays staff. Watching Janssen this spring training will be a very important factor for the upcoming season. When BJ Ryan went down, us Jays fans were devastated. We know we had no chance to replace a closer of his calibre. However, in came Jeremy Accardo, an unknown quantity in the Jays pen, acquired for the cancer known as Shea Hillenbrand. Accardo came in and shocked everybody. He didnt have an earned run against him until May 24th and finished the season with a miniscual 2.14 ERA with 30 saves for an underachieving Jays team. Interesting enough Accardo has a better time getting out lefties due to the action of his split-finger fastball. Accardo can blow the fastball buy you and has a wide array of off-speed pitches. His role all depends on BJ Ryan. If Ryan is healthy, Accardo would fall into place as the team's main setup man, or if BJ can not come back healthy by opening day, Accardo would again serve as closer, where we know he can succeed.

This team as a whole, has not been this versatile and deep in a long time. The pieces are there for the Jays to make a serious run at this thing. Im just not impressed with the uncertainties of the Yankees and the Sox are not bound to repeat all of last year's success. The staff for the Jays is a top 10 MLB staff and is the key for the Jays to break into post-season play. Sure, there are all "IF's" but isnt that with every player? You just dont know.. However, the potential is there to put it all together for these young kids to lead the Jays out of mediocrity and fills the Rogers Centre on an everynight basis for the first time in years.