Concerns Are Bountiful For The 2009 Chicago Cubs

[This article has been edited after the announcement of the Cubs trading Mark DeRosa to Cleveland for three minor league pitchers]

In the past, the Chicago Cubs have run out onto the field before the first inning to many different songs. For years, it was Van Halen's "Jump" from their great 1984 season. Recently, songs from Coldplay and Dave Matthews Band have found their way into the mix.

Perhaps in 2009 they should try inspiring their fans to sing along as George Michael proclaims "You gotta have faith!"

Looking at the potential Cubs roster for 2009, I'm scared to death. Looking around the NL Central, the Cubs could potentially back into another October, with a roster built for the same disaster as the last two.

Here are my projections for the 2009 Cubs 25-man Roster, with my thoughts by position.

Catcher: Geovany Soto, Koyie Hill

Soto was the run-away NL Rookie of the Year after having a great campaign. He'll start 120-140 games and bat between fourth and seventh in the order.

Backing him up may be Henry Blanco again, though the Cubs allowed him to become a free agent. Whether it's Blanco or youngster Hill, neither will be depended on for many games or much offense.

First Base: Derrek Lee, Micah Hoffpaiur

Lee is one of my major concerns on the roster. His offensive numbers have slid in each season since he peaked in his first Cub season, and with just two years left on his contract the window isn't staying very open.

Hoffpaiur is older for a relatively new player (28), but has done everything he could in Iowa. He'll replace Darryl Ward as the lefty specialist off the bench.

Second Base: Mike Fontenot, Aaron Miles

DeRosa was perhaps the MVP of the 2008 Cubs, and his versatility make him perhaps the best value free agent acquisition of GM Jim Hendry's tenure. Now he's in Cleveland.

Fontenot will get his chance to earn playing time to see if he's the heir apparent in 2010, or if the Cubs needs to open their wallets for a free agent (Brian Roberts?). Miles is a utility player that is good for little more than insurance if Fontenot fails in March.

Shortstop: Ryan Theriot, Ronny Cedeno

Theriot was quietly one of the better offensive shortstops in the National League last year, but his range leaves something to be desired.

Cedeno was called upon to be a jack-of-all-trades last year and did it fairly well. He might become trade bait if positional battles in the bullpen and outfield become difficult in Spring Training.

Third Base: Aramis Ramirez

He won the Hank Aaron Award in 2008 and is one of the better offensive third baseman in baseball. Too bad he has yet to bring it to the table in October. He'll be backed up by DeRosa and possibly Cedeno.

Left Field: Alfonso Soriano

Also to be backed up by DeRosa, much of what's been said about Lee and Ramirez could also be said about Soriano. He's got a swiss cheese swing and really needs to come to grips with the fact that he's not a leadoff man any more. Until either he realizes that, or manager Lou Piniella forces the issue, the Cubs will continue to have issues producing runs the old-fashioned way. 

He's had some injury issues during his brief Cubs career, making outfield depth especially important.

Right Field: Milton Bradley

A word to the bleacher bums: don't make Milton angry. You won't like Milton when he's angry. He's been known to jump the wall to "sign autographs" in the third row, he's extended various fingers at appreciative fans, and he's been held back from strangling umpires in almost every division in baseball.

Chicago will likely be his fifth home in as many years. He has only played in over 100 games once since 2004, so outfield depth will again be important.

Center Field: Reed Johnson, Kosuke Fukudome, Joey Gathright/Felix Pie

Pop quiz: what's the difference between Gathright and Pie? If you said age, you're correct.

Neither has had much luck or experience in the majors, and figures to be a pinch runner and depth chart consolation in 2009.

Fukudome moves into a platoon in center because he disappointed so much after June 1 last year. Johnson was a highlight reel last year and might become an inexpensive fan favorite.

So from the batting positions, that gives us 14 players. Four are left handed bats (Hoffpaiur, Fontenot, Fukudome and the winner of the Pie/Gathright battle), while Hill and Bradley are switch hitters.

My concerns (other than those stated above) are these:

The revolving door is wide open, again

Bradley doesn't play an entire season. Soriano has struggled to do that as well. Without DeRosa to play every position on the field again in 2009, the mix-and-match strategy for an infield and a grab bag outfield will again be Piniella's labor. There might be weeks that see a completely different batting order every day.

The bench has very little proven quality

Fontenot and Cedeno have been nice in stretches, but their lack of consistent experience also leads to patches of futility. In the outfield, if Soriano and Bradley miss time, looking at a potential outfield of Fukudome, Johnson and Gathright at one time makes me nauseous. Replacing DeRosa with Miles is a joke. The depth on the roster took an enormous hit when Hendry moved DeRosa off the team.

There still isn't a proven stud to break through in October

Bradley's nice, but how many post seasons has he been a part of? While I'm certainly not advocating that the Cubs call Scott Boras about Manny Ramirez, there is so little difference between the 2009 batting order and the versions that failed in 2007 and 2008 that I fear another early exit.

Now, to the pitching. There are fewer holes in this group, but the decisions that will be made will likely carry more weight.

Starting Rotation: Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Sean Marshall

The top four are set, but the fifth starter is wide open. Angel Guzman, Rich Hill and Marshall will all get their chances in Spring Training, and the potential Jason Marquis trade to Colorado for bullpen depth will likely see Jeff Samardzija working as a starter in Arizona this March as well.

Marshall and Samardzija will be on the roster Opening Day, so if Guzman and Hill disappoint they may find themselves in new uniforms come April.

Wild card alert: the trade of DeRosa to Cleveland for minor league pitchers may open the door for a deal to acquire, you guessed it, Jake Peavy. If he comes in, then the offensive issues could potentially be offset by a disgustingly awesome rotatin.

Bullpen: Chad Gaudin, Neal Cotts, Luis Vizcaino, Carlos Marmol, Samardzija

For now I'll leave Samardzija penciled into the bullpen. My fear with this group is that Gaudin missed time last year with injuries, Vizcaino (who would be acquired in the rumored Marquis deal) is awful and has a career ERA at Wrigley over 6.00, and Cotts has never been the only lefty in a bullpen. Guzman might figure into the mix in the pen as well, and youngsters like Kevin Hart might earn a spot as well. Michael Wuertz is also on the chopping block, and could become trade bait in March as well.

A deal for Peavy might move Marshall back to the pen, and would move any developing young starter (Hart, Samardzija) to the bullpen for at least the next two seasons.

Closer: Kevin Gregg

(tears) I saw Kerry Wood in an Indians jersey yesterday...

For now we'll put Gregg at the back end of the bullpen. He's been as good as any closer in baseball, but he's also been as bad. My fear is that he reminds of Kyle Farnsworth. Hopefully he doesn't remind any bartenders in Wrigleyville, too.

Concerns?

The bullpen might be terrible

Really, really terrible. Cotts was effective last year, but there was at least the option of going to Marshall or Scott Eyre. If Marshall gets into the rotation, then there would need to be another lefty in the bullpen. By my count, if the Cubs carry 11 pitchers they can only have six in the bullpen including the closer. If Gaudin is a sure thing, as are Gregg and Marmol and, one would have to believe, Samardzija, then there are two spots left for another lefty. Maybe Vizcaino won't make the roster.

If a trade for Peavy happens, the forced moves of young starters like Guzman, Samardzija and Hart to the pen adds depth.

Another revolving door at the fifth starter spot

The Cubs have some of the worst recent history when it comes to the back of the rotation in baseball. Moving Marquis takes his consistent 180+ innings out of the mix (albeit his mediocre 180 innings at nearly $10 million).

I personally think Marshall is ready to put up numbers equal to Hill's 2007, but if he doesn't there's a long list of candidates for a tryout.

Unless the Cubs trade for Jake Peavy.

Health

Raise your hand if you've missed time in the last two years with an injury of some sort? Zambrano, Harden, Dempster, Hill, Gregg, Gaudin, and even Marmol have had arm issues in their pasts.

While there's decent depth to cover a start here and there for Harden or Zambrano with Kevin Hart or Guzman, any prolonged stretch of missed time by more than one pitcher could sink the Titanic. And with this group of arms, it's reasonable to believe more than one guy will sit down for a couple weeks.

If the Cubs add Peavy to the mix, the dynamics of the rotation and the necessary allowances for injuries become different. Peavy would serve as a bookend to the rotation that could keep an injury from leading to a lengthy losing streak. Working deep into games would also help to bouy the bullpen.

I thought Jim Hendry had done an adequate job of addressing some of the Cubs needs this offseason, with the pending deals of Marquis and Bradley appearing to perhaps be the last big moves on the roster. But the trade of Mark DeRosa to Cleveland clouds my opinion and I'll have to wait and see. If it becomes a Peavy deal, I'll be happy. If we begin the year with what we have in the middle infield and for a starting rotation, I'm off the bandwagon.

The remaining decisions will be made by Piniella. Does he keep Gathright or Pie? Who plays second base from the group of Miles, Fontenot and Cedeno? These are all decisions that he gets paid to make, and none of them are earth shattering.

The Cubs, if the above is indeed the makeup of their 25-man roster, will be poised to once again capture a division title. Unless Milwaukee makes some dramatic moves in the next couple months, the losses of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets will likely push them back a couple years.

The Cardinals have more bullpen woes than anyone in baseball, and have yet to do more than Trever Miller to fix it. Meanwhile the Reds and Pirates are still the Reds and the Pirates.

But when looking at the moves made outside the Central Division, there have been shifts made in the National League landscape that will effect the Cubs in October that need to be addressed.

If the goal is the division, the Cubs are a success. If the goal is a trophy and the rings that come with it, then the Cubs need to look around baseball and take notice.

The Mets had the worst bullpen on earth last year. They added Francisco Rodriguez and JJ Putz, two top-tier closers.

The Phillies won the World Series. They'll be without Pat Burrell next year, and will miss Chase Utley until at least June. But their pitching is still strong and deep, and the Mets have found ways to screw things up. Until the next champion is crowned, all hail the reigning kings.

The Dodgers have cut all the dead weight from a team that made easy work of the Cubs last year. Gone are the Jeff Kents of the world, and they've got money to spend. They lost a lot from their rotation, but have youngsters primed to fill the vacancies.

The Giants were terrible last year, but added Randy Johnson to a strong young rotation. One or two more bats could get them into contention in the West. As the Rays showed everyone last year, it's just about getting there that matters.

Once you're in, the hottest teams win. If you had to face Tim Lincecum, Johnson and Matt Cain in a five-game series, you might not unpack your bags.

The Yankees continue to spend money.

The Red Sox had one of the deepest rotations in baseball last year, and added 2007 All-Star Game starter Brad Penny for pennies. Even though he's been hurt, he doesn't need to come back any time soon to figure into Boston's October plans.

Just like with the Giants, Penny at full strength in a rotation with Josh Beckett already worked for Florida. Add Daisuke to the mix and they're as good as it gets.

As we approach the final minutes of 2008, I would place the Cubs in the top ten of my 2009 MLB Power Rankings. But I certainly don't think the roster I outlined above can compete with many of the top teams in baseball.