Why the Denver Broncos Will Hold on to Win the AFC West Title

The Tim Tebow saga has ballooned to proportions well beyond what anyone, even his most zealous supporters, could have expected.

The national media has focused on Tebow for his religious beliefs and unconventional style of play, but Denver media outlets and fans alike have focused on him based on the fact that he has the Denver Broncos headed to the playoffs for the first time in six seasons.

A playoff berth isn’t quite a lock for the Broncos, but I believe the team will hold on to win the division, and here’s why:

Compared to their AFC West rivals, the Broncos schedule gives them the path of least resistance to win the division. Even if the team loses this weekend to the New England Patriots, Denver faces two remaining opponents who are currently both under .500, in Buffalo and Kansas City. 

With their current 5-6 records, both the Bills and Chiefs have been all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and have nothing to play for other than as spoilers. However, the team shouldn’t look past their opponents like in the past, where the team has gone 8-15 in December since 2005.

All three of the Broncos' remaining games are highly important in regards to the AFC playoff picture, but their season finale against the Chiefs will be the most important of those remaining on the Broncos schedule, given its importance as both a divisional and conference game in the NFL playoff tie-breaking procedures.

For now, Denver’s closest threat in the AFC West title race is the Oakland Raiders, who are now sitting a game behind the Broncos in the standings. Even if Denver and Oakland end the season with identical records, the Broncos should have an edge in tiebreakers.

The Raiders have cooled off in recent weeks, not only with their recent losses to the Dolphins and Packers. Added in are Oakland’s injury struggles, and the team looks like one that is limping towards the end of the season, rather that surging for a playoff berth.

The San Diego Chargers have begun to surge, but face tough challenges ahead against the Ravens on Sunday night and the Lions the following weekend. For a spot in the playoffs, the Chargers have to win out and hope for an edge in tiebreakers at the end of the season.

Good news for Denver is the fact that the Raiders and Chargers face each other on the final game of the season on New Year’s Day. The two teams may very well knock each other out of the playoffs, leaving Denver all alone atop the standings.

The Broncos-Chiefs matchup will run concurrently to Raiders-Chargers, giving the NFL the late-season drama it was looking for when it decided to schedule divisional games at the end of the season.

The season finale may just be as important a game for now-Chiefs QB Kyle Orton to make a statement to his former team, as it is for the Broncos to hold on to their playoff lives. With Orton trying to make a statement, the matchup may not be as easy as it looked before Denver traded him away. Don’t be surprised if the matchup gets flexed to prime time.

In addition to a favorable schedule, the Broncos’ success will continue with their avoidance of the injury bug.

Both Minnesota with Adrian Peterson out and the absence of Jay Cutler and Matt Forte for Chicago helped give the Broncos a slight tactical edge in those contests. As long as Denver can stay healthier than their opponents, the team will continue to win games, helping them inch closer to the postseason each week.

My prediction? The Broncos finish 10-6 and win the AFC West. In doing so, I believe they will remain a No. 4 seed as if the playoffs started today, hosting the No. 5 seed Pittsburgh Steelers.