Week 15 NFL Picks: Predicting Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys need a win to get back on the right track and save their playoff chances.  The Cowboys fell last Sunday in the closing minutes against the New York Giants, taking a 37-34 loss after Jason Pierre-Paul blocked a Dan Bailey field goal in the final minute to seal the Cowboys' fate.

The Cowboys have been the Kardiac Kids of the 2011 NFL season.  Nine Cowboys games have been decided by a touchdown or less, with games being decided in the closing minutes.  The Cowboys are 4-5 in those games.

The Cowboys could get their feet set once again—and maybe even earn a victory with a decent margin—against the 4-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers, which looked to be playoff contenders at the beginning of the season after winning 10 games in 2010, are in a much different course from that which analysts predicted.  The Bucs have lost seven straight after starting 4-2, taking only two of those losses by less than a touchdown.  Their defense is No. 29 overall.  Even Aqib Talib and Ronde Barber have struggled.

Talib had been thought to be on the way out after a shooting at his house in March, according to a Yahoo!Sports report, but Bucs coach Raheem Morris said the Bucs organization had decided to keep Talib.  Talib is currently working through a hamstring injury and missed practice on Thursday.

Josh Freeman has struggled quite a bit this season.  While he averages a nice 241.3 passing yards per game, he leads league in interceptions (18) after throwing only six interceptions last year.

LeGarrette Blount, a tough rusher, could pose problems for the Cowboys.  He has 737 yards on the year and averages 4.4 yards per rush.  Blount can break some beastly runs.

Stopping Blount could be an issue with injury problems.  Jay Ratliff suffered great pain on Sunday due to sore knees, which allowed him to play only two-plus quarters.  While the knee has not been mentioned to have bothered him since then, Ratliff missed practice on Tuesday with a back injury.    DeMarcus Ware missed a significant number of plays against the Giants due to a stinger.

Ware was back in practice on Thursday after missing practice on Wednesday, according to the Dallas Morning News.

How the Cowboys contain Blount, as well as the following questions, will help to determine whether the Cowboys beat the Bucs.

How will the Cowboys pass rush look with Ware missing a significant number of snaps?  Will the Cowboys secondary cover the Bucs receivers well?  Will Tony Romo be on target?  Can the Cowboys continue to rely on Bailey to hit field goals?  Is Felix Jones about to return to his once spry, quick self?  Which Cowboys receivers will get the big catches?

Tony Romo

24-of-37, 322 yards, 3 TD, INT, 2 rushes, 5 yards

Except for a couple of plays against the Giants, Romo was spectacular on Sunday.  He threw for more than 300 yards for the fifth time this season and his four touchdown passes were the most this seasons.  His only significant blemishes were an overthrown pass to Miles Austin in the next-to-last Cowboys drive and an absentminded snap take on the next-to-last play before the Dan Bailey field-goal attempt.

Romo should be good against the Bucs.  He'll throw at a high completion rate.  Three touchdown passes is a reasonable call as he'll be throwing the ball often with the game remaining eerily close.  Generally, his reads will be good, though he may make a few bad reads.  On one occasion, he'll throw an interception where Ronde Barber steps up and makes a veteran play.

Felix Jones

12 rushes, 90 yards, 3 receptions, 20 yards

Jones was spectacular in his first game ,receiving most of the carries since the early part of the season.  He ran for 106 yards on 16 carries.  Seeing him excel running the ball after DeMarco Murray went down with his ankle injury was a relief for the Cowboys.

He'll be solid running the ball again on Saturday.  Jones will find running lanes as Tony Fiammetta paves the way effectively for him.  On at least five occasions, Jones will break significant gains.

Also, Jones will have some activity in the passing games.  He'll catch a few passes out of the backfield, picking up decent gains on a couple of catches.

Laurent Robinson

5 receptions, 150 yards, TD

Laurent Robinson was amazing against the Giants, totaling four catches and 137 yards.  He caught a 74-yard pass and also had a touchdown catch early in the game.

On Saturday, Robinson will have an even bigger game.  He'll have Romo's attention a good deal of the time and will catch his share of catches.  At least three of those catches will be for big gains, while one will find him in the end zone.

Miles Austin

4 receptions, 70 yards, TD

Miles Austin made a solid return against the Giants after missing four games due to a hamstring injury, catching four passes for 63 yards and a touchdown.  Two of his catches were on the final drive.

Austin will have another fine games on Saturday as he breaks back into action.  He'll get a few catches.  A couple of his passes will be deep balls and one will be a touchdown.

Dez Bryant

2 receptions, 45 yards

Dez Bryant was very quiet against the Giants.  Securely covered by Corey Webster, Bryant didn't find many opportunities for catches.  His only catch was an easy 50-yard touchdown occurring on a miscommunication between Webster and a safety.

Bryant will be on the low end once again on Saturday.  While Robinson, Austin and Jason Witten will be targeted several times, Bryant will only find a few passes headed his way.  However, both of his passes will be for significant gains.

Jason Witten

6 receptions, 66 yards, TD

Witten was quiet against the Giants on Sunday.  In only the second game of the season that saw him catching fewer than four passes, Witten totaled three catches for 12 yards.

Witten will have a better game on Saturday.  He'll break open running up the seam.  Witten will lead the team in catches and at some point Romo will hook up with him for a touchdown.

DeMarcus Ware

2 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 sack

The Cowboys have a bit more hope for the pass rush with Ware healing a bit.  Having him back in practice on Thursday was surely a relief for the Cowboys.

Ware will have a fair game on Saturday.  He'll be a significant presence in the Bucs backfield, and on one play Ware will take Freeman down for a sack.

Ware will be helpful in defending the run, too.  He'll stop LeGarrett Blount short on one run.

Terence Newman

4 tackles, INT

Terence Newman will do a solid job covering Mike Williams.  He'll allow Williams to get a few catches, but won't allow Williams many yards after the catch.  Newman will tackle Williams quickly after catches.  On one play, Newman will get inside on Williams and jump for an interception.

Dan Bailey

1/1 FG, 3/3 XP

Bailey had been on a tear for the first 11 games of his rookie season.  He was the leader in field-goal percentage after Week 12, having only missed one field goal to that point.  Then he missed potential game-winning field goals in each of the last two games.

On Saturday, Bailey will redeem himself.  He'll hit a field goal when it counts.  Additionally, he'll make the requisite extra points.

Prediction

Prediction:  Cowboys 24, Buccaneers 21

The Cowboys will plug the two-game losing streak on Saturday, pulling out another close win against the Bucs.  This will see Romo pulling through in the clutch, making the right passes on the final drive.  Then, Bailey will put up the game-winning field goal.

Throughout the game, the Cowboys offense will function well.  Romo will be on his game.  Felix Jones will look like the running back the Cowboys always hoped he would become.

The Bucs will keep things interesting.  Josh Freeman will find some success in the passing game.  He'll find some weak spots in the Cowboys secondary.  Seeing him throw for 250 yards would be no surprise.  LeGarrette Blount will be strong on the ground.  He'll break through several times and have some big runs.

Don't be surprised to see Blount in the end zone once or twice.

This win will be a huge relief for the Cowboys.  They need to win to stay alive in the division race and each of the remaining three games is make or break.  Before the Cowboys finish with divisional games against the Philadelphia Eagles and Giants, a win on Saturday will be a bit of assurance.