Rose Bowl Preview: Can USC Avoid the Letdown to Penn State?

Keys to the Game

USC Trojans

Score Early

If USC is able to score early, it will keep the Penn State offense in a position where they will be playing from behind, increasing the likelihood of a crucial turnover by the Nittany Lions.

In the loss to Oregon State, USC was forced to play from a 21-point deficit, which handicapped both the offense and defense in their second-half comeback attempt and gave the Beavers the confidence that they could beat the mighty Trojans.

USC has recovered a number of times from early deficits; this year alone they have fallen behind to teams like UCLA, Ohio State, Oregon, and Stanford and have come back to dominate most of those games. However, none of those teams are nearly as complete as this Penn State team is.

The Nittany Lions have few weaknesses, and if they start to believe they can defeat the Trojans as other Big Ten teams failed to do, they may just indeed walk away victorious.

Play Physical on Offense

This has been a criticism for the Trojan offense all year long, particularly being directed at the running backs who are very shifty and have great speed, but have trouble running up the gut.

This offense has been highly productive yet has a label of inconsistency; this is because when times get tough, the offense often struggles.

Granted, times are rarely tough around the Trojans, but with an offensive coordinator between jobs and facing one of the top defenses in the country, this offense will need to be able to produce points when given the opportunity.

The rushing attack will be a three-headed monster led by former high school sensation Joe McKnight, whose ability in space allowed for his 7.7 average yards per carry.

Stafon Johnson and CJ Gable follow him up, with all three having over 600 yards rushing while averaging over five yards per carry. Stanley Havili also has many across the Trojan-base raving about his potential as game-changer from the fullback position.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Establish the Run

In USC’s only defeat, we saw unknown true freshman JacQuizz Rodgers burst through USC’s defense for a consistent 186 yards on 37 carries.

His performance led the Beavers to the upset, and it is exactly what the Nittany Lions will need to do behind their two young, but productive backs.

The star runner is Evan Royster, a sophomore who rushed for over 1,200 yards on just 185 carries, averaging 6.5 a carry. Following him is a freshman back, Stephfon Green, who averaged 5.5 a carry for 521 yards as the speedster.

The two backs will benefit from a veteran offensive line that rarely makes mistakes, led by AQ Shipley and Rich Ohrnberger.

Win the Turnover Battle

As mentioned above, turnovers will be a key part to this game, and one only has to look at the Oregon State game to see that it is the key to defeat the Trojans.

Daryll Clark and the offense must avoid giving the ball up to a USC defense that, despite being perhaps the most dominant of this decade, fails to bring as many turnovers in as Carroll and the staff would like.

USC’s offense has fumbled 21 times, losing nine of them, while Penn State has fumbled 23 times, also losing nine. Interceptions-wise, this Trojan defense has 17 on the year while Penn State has 16.

For Penn State, they do not necessarily have to force a turnover out of the Trojan offense; however, they cannot give up any on offense.

This is crucial as it forces the USC offense to move the ball the entire field which makes it difficult for an offense predicated on the big play.Key Matchup

Darryl Clark vs. Trojan Defense

As mentioned earlier, this matchup is the center of the crucial turnover battle. Clark has been the Penn State signal caller all year, but he went down in the Ohio State game, forcing backup Pat Devlin to come in and seal the victory.

Pat Devlin has now transferred, leaving only one scholarship quarterback behind Clark, senior Paul Cianiciolo. This means that Clark must stay healthy against one of the hardest hitting teams in college football, led by headhunter Rey Maualuga.

Clark is a quick quarterback with the ability to rush the ball, though it is often not a major part of the game plan. He has shown a great ability to get the ball to a number of different weapons on his offense.

He has thrown four interceptions this year while passing for over 2,300 yards. The key for Clark is to manage the game while the Nittany Lions establish the run.

According to Pete Carroll, the Trojans have only given up one long ball all year and have only given up four passing touchdowns.

Clark is not a gunslinger and thus, matchup wise, I expect Clark to have a decent amount of success against a team that has historically allowed some success to speedy quarterbacks like Vince Young and Dennis Dixon, even if Clark is not in the same mold.

X-FACTORS

USC Trojans

Motivation

The Trojans have won the Pac-Ten seven years in a row. They’ve achieved at least 11 wins seven years in a row and now have reached the Rose Bowl for the fifth time in six years.

This is something that used to be a point of pride, however it has instead become an instance of disappointment. It has become second nature for the Trojans to go to the Rose Bowl as well as dominate Big Ten teams like Michigan, Illinois and Ohio State.

It has become a national trend to ridicule the Big Ten. But people often forget that this Penn State team is not like the Ohio State team that was upset by Florida, or the Michigan team that lost to Appalachian State.

This year, the Trojans were again a mere victory away from a guaranteed spot in the national title game; instead they are playing in a game that many following the Trojans have come out and said they’d rather not play in.

The last loss in the Rose Bowl for USC came in 1989 against Michigan and a victory against the Nittany Lions would not gain them much in regards to the national media.

This combines for a scary situation for Pete Carroll and company, expectations are high but rewards are slim, and that very often leads to failure.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Pride

Penn State faces the opposite situation of that of the Trojans do, they have not reached the Rose Bowl since the undefeated 1994 campaign.

Penn State has struggled mildly since joining the Big Ten and their second top-ten finish this decade would go along way for a coach in Joe Paterno that constantly answers the age-old question of whether or not he can still get it done.

Both of these programs are traditional powers, but in the new era of college football Penn State has fallen behind. Yet, they have far exceeded expectations this year as they were picked no higher than fourth in the Big Ten while being picked as low as seventh.

Instead, they won the conference and have signed Joe Paterno for three more years.

For the Nittany Lions expectations are low, as they often get compared to the recent failures of other Big Ten teams and have been overlooked all year.

A victory over the storied and nationally respected Trojans would create a buzz lasting long into the off-season and a legacy for the future.PREDICTION

In this heavyweight matchup, Penn State will be facing a Trojan defense that features two All-Americans in linebacker Rey Maualuga and safety Taylor Mays. A defense that has allowed a mere 11 touchdowns in 12 games, 7.75 points per game, and have only allowed 22 points after halftime this year.

However, this is the same USC team that will be playing in its fifth Rose Bowl in six years and have outscored Big Ten teams 109-49 in the last three.

Penn State will be making its third trip to Pasadena, putting them a mere 30 behind USC in all time appearances.

Throughout this preview, I have focused on how Penn State compares to USC, rather than how USC compares to Penn State.

This is because of one simple reason: The Trojans are the most talented team in America.

With that said however, Penn State is not a team that will fall in line with its Big Ten predecessors on the list of teams USC has steamrolled.

Penn State is very balanced and features perhaps the best defensive line in the country behind sophomore sensation Aaron Maybin, who has developed into an elite pass rusher.

He is partnered by Maurice Evans and Jared Odrick, all of whom lead a defense that is not far behind the No. 1-ranked Trojan defense at No. 5 in the nation.

Both of these teams have defenses that force the viewer to overlook their quite productive offenses.

USC, led by junior quarterback Mark Sanchez, is averaging 37.5 points per game and 453 yards per game, while Penn State nearly mirrors that with 40 points per game and 452 yards per game.

USC has a number of offensive weapons like McKnight, Gable and wideout Patrick Turner, however only Damian Williams has exceeded expectations.

Penn State meanwhile has performed well above expectations, which had them picked as the fourth-best team in the Big Ten with quarterback questions and a number of suspensions on defense.

The Nittany Lion offense has weapons across the board, led by three multi-year starters in the receiving corps: Derrick Williams, Jordan Norwood, and Deon Butler.

Williams is a big-play threat who will be all over the field in different positions from wide receiver, punt and kick returner, running back, and even quarterback.

Now, these two teams are linked by three letters: OSU.

Both of these teams played Ohio State and Oregon State with varying success. USC thumped Ohio State 35-3 in a game that announced to the media that they had every intention of playing for the national title.

The next game, however, they were upset by JacQuizz Rodgers and Oregon State in Corvallis.

Penn State meanwhile had dismantled that same Oregon State team earlier that month in Happy Valley, 45-14. They then went on to win a crucial Big Ten battle over Ohio State with a healthy Beanie Wells in the horse shoe, 13-6.

Both programs were one win short of playing in the actual national championship game before losing road games to un-ranked teams.

The teams differed in their losses as Penn State blew a 10 point second half lead while the Trojans struggled to come back from a 21-0 halftime score.

In a year where offense has exploded onto the scene, these two teams, led by defense, have been the forgotten one-loss programs punished by the perceptions of their conference.

Disregarding conference affiliation, this game very well may have been the national championship game and can, for those playoff lovers, be considered a national semifinal between a pair of one-loss programs.

When making my prediction, the biggest difference I saw between the teams came in the category of penalties.

USC is ranked 116th, averaging 8.1 penalties a game for 74 yards while Penn State is third in the nation averaging 3.3 a game for 28 yards a game and has 45 fewer penalties total than USC.

I doubt penalties will win or lose the game, however they may very well aid a Penn State offense looking to put up points on a vaunted defense or a help a Penn State defense get a second chance at an inconsistent offense.

These two teams have coaches who are prided by their bowl performances. With Paterno’s 23 bowl victories and Carroll’s tendency for success in big games, these teams will be very well prepared, making for a close game.

Penn State won their out-of-conference games by an average of 43 points per game and had 10 wins by 14 points or more.

USC allowed just 13 points to its three out-of-conference opponents and scoring 125 points. They also held three opponents scoreless during the season, which clearly shows the caliber of teams in this Rose Bowl.

However, as a devout Oregon State Beaver fan, there is one issue I cannot look past.

As a Beaver fan watching both games against these teams very intently I have realized one thing.

Penn State is the better team.

Looking through the statistics one can argue either way, though most point in the Trojans direction.

USC is far more talented, and as a Beaver, I know full well of our failures in the Week Two match up and our success against the Trojans.

But in that Penn State game, I saw a team that was the most-rounded team I’ve seen in awhile.

I would not be shocked or surprised to see a USC victory, in fact I’d almost be disappointed by a loss.

Since my Beavers were knocked out of the Rose Bowl in the Civil War and the thought of a rematch was officially out of the picture I have flip-flopped over the victor in this game.

For Penn State to win, they must play aggressively on both sides of the ball yet not give up any turnovers. On defense, the line must put pressure on Sanchez, forcing mistakes. On offense, the team must establish the run, taking pressure away from Clark.

Penn State averages 211.6 yards rushing each game and has a 93% efficiency in the red-zone. In order to see USC win this ball game we are going to need to see Sanchez get the ball to his wideouts and score early to force pressure onto the Nittany Lion offense.

USC's running backs need an attitude that they will not be denied against a stellar defensive unit. The key for the Trojans to win this game is to not rely on its defense to win the game. With a well-rounded team like Penn State, USC will need to compete in all facets of the game for the entire game.

Penn State is a hungry team looking to restore credibility for its entire conference, while the Trojans seem looking towards next year and back on a season of what could have been. As well, the Nittany Lions have the advantage on both sides of the line and that usually spells a victory.

Look for this game to be one of better games this bowl season.

My prediction: Derrick Williams’ key punt return links with an efficient output by Darryl Clark to earn the Nittany Lions a surprising victory that will have long-lasting implications, particularly on how USC will deal with Terrelle Pryor in a year.

Penn State: 24
USC: 19

This is an original Bowl Preview by Pigskin Heaven Member, OSU8085, you can read it, more of PSH's Bowl Previews and more from the Pigskin Heaven staff, here.