2008 Seattle Mariners: Still Overachieving?

Many people would say that the 2007 Mariners overachieved. 

Looking at the contributions of Richie Sexson (.205/.295/.399, 63 RBI, 100K), Jose Vidro (.314/.381/.394, but only 26 extra-base hits and six HR), and Raul Ibanez (.291/.351/.480, almost all of which came after about July 24), I'd have to agree. Carrying three offensive liabilities as regular starters for most of a season is no way to contend for October baseball. 

Early results confirmed the fears of most M's fans—the team would spend 2007 on the south side of the AL West standings for the third year in a row. 

Apart from four straight postponements against Cleveland in the first week of the season (really, who schedules early-April games for Cleveland's climate?), the M's started 5-3, and there was no indication that it would get better, winning percentage-wise.

But it did, sort of.  They dropped six straight on that road trip, then won four straight. That pretty much set their pattern for the rest of the year—a crazy yo-yo that would see the M's have as many five game or more losing streaks as five-game or more winning streaks. They had four losing streaks, including one epic stretch where the M's dropped nine straight, and lost 12 of 13 to effectively end their title hopes. On the other side, their season included one eight-game winning streak. 

In short, this M's team did overachieve. But their tendency to hit in bunches, or more precisely, NOT to hit in bunches most of the time, ultimately became their undoing.

So, where does that put the Mariners as we head to Peoria for Spring Training and the 2008 season? 

Well, let's look at the holes that the M's had at the end of 2007:

1.  First base.  Richie Sexson didn't just fall off a cliff, he Wile E. Coyoted off the cliff, and ended up accordioning himself at the bottom of the gulch. 

2.  Left field.  Raul Ibanez' bat is still reasonably productive (after a really, really slow start last year), but his defense is, shall we say, underwhelming.  He's got the range of Manny Ramirez, the arm of Juan Pierre, and the speed of Barry Bonds; in short, he's probably better suited as a DH than as an everyday outfield player. 

Too bad the Mariners no longer have a future left field replacement, of which more in a moment.

3.  Rotation.  Felix Hernandez, while not as consistent as we'd all like, is really shaping up to be one of the good ones, as evidenced by his April 11 start against Daisuke Matsuzaka and the Red Sox, in which he treated the Sox like something you scrape off the bottom of your shoe.  Beyond Felix, there's Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista, who are both not terrible, and, well, that's really about it.

So, given that the Mariners had some definite needs this offseason, what did they do?  Did they fill the holes they needed, and by doing so, did they put themselves in a position to compete with the division-favorite Angels in 2008? 

Uh, not really. 

They acquired Carlos Silva, while not overwhelming, was an OK move, because that plugged one of the rotation holes (hopefully HoRam’s). 

The big deal of the off-season was the trade for Erik Bedard for a range of players and top prospects, including Adam Jones, George Sherrill, and a few others.

What's the big deal, you say?  After all, players are traded for prospects all the time. 

But, take a look at the list of holes up there again, and ask yourself this: How many of those holes does acquiring one pitcher, while giving away a good chunk of the farm (and, in Sherrill, a great LOOGY) actually fill? 

And, if you were the GM, why on earth would you include in that deal the natural (and defensively superior) replacement for an everyday player who's ready to DH?

Your attitude towards the Bedard deal, of course, depends on how you feel about the M's chances in 2008. 

If you feel that the M's are one starting pitcher away from postseason play and Series contention, then you're probably pretty excited at this point.  If, however, you're like me and you see that the M's are more than one Erik Bedard-shaped puzzle piece from inane Chris Myers interviews on the third-base line after the ALCS, then you dislike this trade, because it sets the M's back, not just this year but next.

I'm not a sabermetrician—I definitely appreciate the value of numbers, but I have no affinity for learning them or for figuring out how to use them.  There are many, many smart people out there doing just that. 

But, what I do know is this: even a non-saber guy like myself can see that the M's need some work.

I really do like Erik Bedard, and I'm really looking forward to watching him pitch for the Mariners next year; I just don't believe that Erik Bedard alone is enough to get the M's past mediocre and onto AL West contender.

This is a team that has almost no depth. They need to stay healthy and need to regain significant output from players that didn’t provide it last year (I'm looking at you, Richie Sexson). 

The M's can contend this year, if all of those "ifs" come to be; more realistically, the M's will probably settle second or third place, fighting with the Oakland A’s to be the kings of the also-rans, while Adam Jones prowls the Camden Yards outfield and makes Seattle fans wonder "what if."

My prediction?  Sexson doesn't bounce back, Vidro's still not a DH, and the Mariners will end up somewhere around 83-79. 

I want to be wrong on all these counts, but I've been a Mariners fan long enough to know that I'm probably right.