2011 NBA Free Agent Signings: J.J. Barea to the Timberwolves Is a Risky Deal

Not content having one risky option at point guard, the Minnesota Timberwolves felt it necessary to add another. Backing up the much-hyped but chronically-underachieving Ricky Rubio will now be J.J. Barea. 

It's one thing for Barea to back up a pure point guard destined for the Hall of Fame like Jason Kidd, but it's quite another for him to back up the likes of Ricky Rubio, who has yet to play in an NBA game. 

Rubio runs the risk of being an unmitigated disaster in the NBA. Hollinger writes in his scouting report of Rubio:

"

"There's no way to sugarcoat this: Rubio's translated European stats are just awful, and have been for the past few years. I have a system that's been pretty reliable in terms of predicting first-year NBA performance for imports from the Euroleague, and what they project for Rubio offensively is ghastly: a 27.3 percent shooting mark and a 9.93 PER. It's not just his play in that league either; Rubio's play for Spain in international competition has been similarly discouraging."

"

Does that meant that absolutely, positively, the T'Wolves are in for a disaster at point guard? No, but it sure means they need a backup who is capable of starting. 

The question becomes, is Barea that player? The answer is again, "Maybe."

Barrea had a nice run in the postseason, and he shredded the Lakers in particular in backup duties. I'm always hesitant to put too much stock in a player that has a nice series, though. Barrea has started 45 games in his career, averaging 10.7 points and 3.6 assists in those games. 

On the other hand, his per-36 minute stats last year were pretty decent, scoring 16.6 points and dishing out 6.8 assists per game. 

The question is whether last year's playoff series was a legit breakout performance or just a nice stretch. If he starts and teams are game-planning for him, can he keep up the same kind of production? Bear in mind it's going to be more difficult going against starting defenses than backup defenses. 

The T'Wolves are taking a big risk in signing an unproven passer who can't score and backing him up with a scoring point guard with marginal passing abilities. It's a gamble that could pay off but is more likely to fail. Given Minnesota's history, the latter is most likely.