NFL Playoff Predictions: Lucky Breaks Each Contender Needs to Win the Super Bowl

No matter how much talent an NFL club has, every Super Bowl champion has had a case of good fortune along its run. Take the Steelers' triumph in Super Bowl XL: They were lucky that Mike Vanderjagt shanked that field goal in the divisional game against Indianapolis. Or the Packers a year ago: The Bears losing Jay Cutler in the NFC title game was certainly good fortune. And how about the 2001 Patriots and the "Tuck Rule Game"?

Good luck can come in many different forms: no injuries, injuries to the other team, a lucky bounce, a lucky break from the officials or even the weather. 

An old saying in sports is, "I'd rather be lucky than good." Every one of these teams would agree. 

With apologies to several other fanbases—especially those in Tennessee, Cincinnati and Philadelphia—just because your team hasn't yet been mathematically eliminated (and it will) doesn't mean it is a contender.

Green Bay Packers

Record: 13-0

Lucky Break: Not playing New Orleans

You might look at Sunday's injury to their premier receiver, Greg Jennings, and say, "A lucky break would be his knee returning to full health."

But the Packers should still be able to win a Super Bowl even without Jennings because they are so deep at the wide receiver position.

Instead, Green Bay could use some good luck on the other side of the ball.

The Packer pass defense is still atrocious, no matter how many times it picked off Carson Palmer. 

Having said that, the only way the Packers don't win the Super Bowl is if they run into a passing attack as ferocious as theirs—i.e. the Saints—and struggle. 

I'm not necessarily saying they can't beat New Orleans, but things will be a lot easier if they don't have to play the Saints.

San Francisco 49ers

Record: 10-3 

Lucky Break: Patrick Willis' hamstring not nagging

Willis didn't play Sunday against the Cardinals, and the 49ers lost 21-19. Maybe it's not that simple of a formula, and perhaps they would have lost Sunday with Willis in the lineup, but it certainly sets a bad precedent.

Make no mistake about it: The 49ers cannot win a Super Bowl without their star defender and potentially the NFL Defensive Player of the Year. 

But even if he returns, that's not necessarily enough. They need him at full strength, and a hamstring injury could be a long-lasting, nagging injury that slows him down the rest of the way.

Baltimore Ravens

Record: 10-3

Lucky Break: Ray Lewis' toe not nagging

It's somewhat ironic that the 49ers—coached by a Harbaugh and atop their division—are trying to overcome an injury to their top linebacker. Why? Because the Ravens, also coached by a Harbaugh and atop their division, are also trying to overcome an injury to their top linebacker. 

Sure, Terrell Suggs is a great player, and the Ravens defense hasn't really skipped a beat since Lewis was lost to a turf toe injury last month. However, they will need him in the playoffs. He's the only one left from that Super Bowl-winning team in 2000, and that's significant.

As is the case with Patrick Willis, the best bit of fortune for the 49ers going forward would be for him to come back healthy, and not just come back. If you don't think turf toe can be nagging, just ask Deion Sanders.

Houston Texans

Record: 10-3 

Lucky Break: No more injuries to starting quarterbacks

It's not quite a miracle the Texans' winning streak has hit seven games, but it's close. 

To go from first-string quarterback to third-string quarterback in the span of two weeks and still not lose a game is an incredible achievement. Give T.J. Yates credit for first surviving and then playing very well, like he did in the win over Cincinnati.

But talk about playing with fire. If anything happens to Yates over the next few weeks, that will be the nail in the coffin. Sure, Jake Delhomme and Jeff Garcia have great résumés, but there is a reason why they were out of football a month ago.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 10-3 

Lucky Break: James Harrison not being suspended

I was thinking a leg transplant for either Ben Roethlisberger or Maurkice Pouncey or both would be a nice break for the Steelers, but this entry is a bit more plausible.

Reports are that the NFL is considering dealing Harrison a one- or two-game suspension for his hit on Colt McCoy—sort of the three-strikes-and-you're-out mentality (well, it's probably more than three). 

If that is the case, it could have serious repercussions for the Steelers. They probably have to win out to claim the AFC North and get a first-round bye—which would do wonders for Roethlisberger, Pouncey and LaMarr Woodley—and that's far less likely to happen without Harrison on the field.

New Orleans Saints

Record: 10-3

Lucky Break: Not facing a big back in the playoffs

Although the Saints' pass defense ranks far worse (30th in the NFL) than their run defense (16th), they have really had their problems against opponents who can run the football.

Take their two losses (I'm not going to count the one against Green Bay since the Packers seem incapable of losing right now) against Tampa Bay and St. Louis.

In both of those games they were worn down by big backs, Earnest Graham and Steven Jackson. Even in their wins over Atlanta and Jacksonville, they gave up considerable yardage to Michael Turner and Maurice Jones-Drew.

There's a good chance Gregg Williams' blitz-happy defense will face Turner, Frank Gore or Brandon Jacobs in the playoffs. If it does, it could lead to a trip home, just like it did last year when Marshawn Lynch tore through the Saints defense in Seattle.

New England Patriots

Record: 10-3

Lucky Break: Not face New Orleans or Green Bay in the Super Bowl

This list deals with lucky breaks that teams need to have in order to win the Super Bowl, not just get there.

In all honesty, regardless of its horrendous pass-defense woes, I think New England still has the inside track on claiming the AFC championship.

The Patriots have so many weapons on offense, one of the game's best defensive minds and plenty of talent along their front seven to hang with and eventually beat a team like Baltimore, Houston or Pittsburgh—especially if they get those teams in Foxboro. None have the explosive passing game that can outscore Brady's.

But that can't be said if they reach the Super Bowl and have to play Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees.

Atlanta Falcons

Record: 8-5 

Lucky Break: Dallas, not the Giants, win the NFC East

Right now, the Falcons have the inside track on the NFC's higher wild card, the fifth seed. They hold a tiebreaker over the Lions, who are in line to be the sixth seed, and the Bears are crumbling fast. 

Thus, if the season were to end today, they'd be traveling to play the fourth seed, who will almost certainly be the winner of the NFC East.

It's a toss-up as to who that will be, Dallas or the Giants, but you've got to figure the dome-team Falcons would much rather play that Wild Card Round matchup in a dome in Texas and not outside in snowy, frigid New Jersey.

Based on the talent they have on offense, just getting through the opening round could be enough to spark another low-seed Super Bowl run.

New York Jets

Record: 8-5

Lucky Break: The Patriots don't earn a playoff bye

Given the fact that either the Steelers or Ravens will easily lock up the fifth seed, if the Jets do qualify it's going to be as a sixth seed for a second straight year.

Now on the one hand, that's a bummer. It doesn't exactly show much progress for Rex Ryan and his team.

But there might be a silver lining. 

If the Texans and Ravens/Steelers manage to edge New England for playoff byes, the Jets' wild-card opponent will almost certainly be the Pats. While that does seem to be a major negative and a mismatch, remember what happened last January when the Jets went to Foxboro: They beat New England decisively.

Any other first-round opponent and I worry the Jets won't get up enough to win. That's certainly not the case if they play the Pats.

Detroit Lions

Record: 8-5

Lucky Break: Ndamukong Suh's anger issues are resolved

Forget about what happened last week in the Superdome while Suh began his suspension—the Saints are an amazing offense.

The Lions may have beaten the Vikings on Sunday, but to allow the Adrian Peterson-less Vikings 269 yards on the ground is absurd.

We all know how great of a player Suh is against the run and the pass, so if the Lions have any hopes of making the playoffs, let alone winning a Super Bowl, they need him on the field.

Clearly he'll be under even greater scrutiny now for dirty plays or late hits, and you've got to figure that the next time it happens, the suspension will be far longer and possibly include the playoffs.

Denver Broncos

Record: 8-5

Lucky Break: No break needed—just keep doing what they're doing

How can I pick a "lucky break" for a team that has had nothing but luck the last six weeks?

I know that may anger Tim Tebow and/or Broncos fans, but come on! Just look at how they won last week and on Sunday. Fortune may favor the bold, but it also seems to favor the team in the orange and blue.

All the Broncos seem to have to do is show up and they find some kind of fourth-quarter magic to win.

They've epitomized the "it's better to be lucky than good" concept.

Chicago Bears

Record: 7-6

Lucky Break: Matt Forte returns next week 

As lucky as the Broncos have been in recent weeks, the Bears seem to be equally unlucky, so perhaps it's fitting that they met Sunday, and predictably, the Broncos won.

Still, Chicago isn't completely dead in the water in terms of a playoff spot. 

But you can't win the Super Bowl without making the playoffs, and frankly, the Bears can't make the playoffs if they lose another game. So Matt Forte—who clearly makes that offense go—needs to be back next week.

The Bears probably could have survived an injury to either Jay Cutler or Matt Forte, but not both. Since we know that Cutler is on the shelf far longer than Forte seems to be, the only plausible luck for Chicago would be that the hyperbaric chamber Forte sits in is actually doing its job.

Dallas Cowboys

Record: 7-6 

Lucky Break: Never have a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter

Immediately following the Cowboys' loss to the Giants, NBC showed an unbelievable statistic.

Beginning with its inception in 1960 through 2010, Dallas squandered fourth-quarter leads of 12 points or more just twice. In 2011, they've squandered fourth-quarter leads of 12 points or more three times.

It may be contrary to conventional wisdom, but if the Cowboys take control of a game—either in the final three weeks or the playoffs—it's a bad sign.

Oakland Raiders

Record: 7-6

Lucky Break: Tim Tebow's magic runs out

Again, you can't win a Super Bowl without first making the playoffs, and the only way the Raiders make the playoffs is by winning the AFC West.

For that to happen, they'll need some help. They trail Denver by a game right now, and because the Broncos' schedule is pretty favorable the rest of the way (aside from the Patriots), Oakland will probably have to win out just to tie Denver for the division's best record.

Based on the way Tebow has played lately, the best thing that could happen to the Raiders would be to see him fail. After the last six weeks, if that were to happen it would be a tremendously lucky break.

New York Giants

Record: 7-6 

Lucky Break: Every game comes down to final four minutes, trailing by two scores

For whatever reason the Giants seem to play their best football with their backs against the wall. Case in point: Sunday evening in Arlington, Texas.

They trailed by 12 with less than four minutes to play and came back to beat Dallas, snap their four-game losing skid and take control of the NFC East.

Eli Manning has been very good this year, but in the closing minutes of close games he has amped up his game to an incredible level. The way he's been playing, if every one of their games comes down to that untenable scenario, the Giants very well could find themselves in the Super Bowl.

San Diego Chargers

Record: 6-7

Lucky Break: The NFL decides to change their schedule

Yes, that's the only way I see the Chargers making the playoffs.

Now, just being 6-7 and two games behind Denver with three to play (in addition to being behind Oakland in the standings) isn't enough to believe that. After all, they put together an even more impressive comeback in 2008—three games down with three to play.

But that Charger team didn't have nearly the brutal schedule down the stretch that this one does. They host the Ravens next Sunday night, then go to Detroit to play the Lions and then have to finish up in the Black Hole.

That's a ridiculously challenging schedule, especially if you need to leapfrog two teams in the process.