NFL Week 14 Picks: Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers

If you read our recent article about the point spread struggles of 12-0 teams over the last four weeks of the regular season then you probably already know that we like the Raiders in this spot. That’s certainly the case if you’re looking at the side, but there might be something else we like as much or more in this one: the under.

As a quick sidenote to our study of 12-0 teams, there were three of those teams that most closely resembled the Packers in terms of trending towards the over during the first 12 weeks. The 1998 Broncos started off 9-3 to the over while the 2007 Pats were 10-2 and the 2009 Saints were 7-5.

Those Patriots and Saints teams in particular bear a resemblance to this year’s Packers in terms of being high-powered offensive teams with mid-range defenses at best. Interesting to note that New England went 3-1 to the under in its last four games of 2007, while the Saints were 4-0 to the under to finish up 2009. In other words, there appears to be an under trend to go along with the losing ATS trend for undefeated teams over the last month.

Even if we factor in Denver’s 3-1 O/U record to finish up 1998, the under is still 8-4 in the final four weeks for undefeated teams who went 7-5 or better to the over to start the season. Worth noting that this year’s Packers are sitting at 8-4 to the over thus far—a good indication that there may some value with the under down the stretch.

And in fact there’s a good case to be made for the under in this week’s matchup with the Raiders. Oakland is by no means a great defensive team, but they matchup relatively well in the sense that their Achilles heel is stopping the run. That shouldn’t come into play too much against a Green Bay team that will be without their best runner, James Starks, and that prefers to throw it anyway.

Obviously Rodgers is scary in the passing game, but the Packers are playing with a banged-up offensive line. If there’s one thing the Raiders do well, it’s rush the passer. While they’ve been gouged repeatedly on the ground, Oakland has 33 sacks, they’re giving up a very respectable 75.5 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks and they’ve held opposing passing attacks under 300 yards for seven straight games.

They can’t hope to shut down Rodgers, but they just might be able to slow him down just enough to keep this one under the total.

The Raiders match up respectably on offense as well, both in terms of their point spread prospects and in terms of hitting the under. What Oakland does best is run the ball, to the tune of 140.6 yards per game. It seems likely that the plan will be to keep in on the ground in hopes of eating clock and keeping Rodgers off the field. There’s reason to believe they could be effective in this regard.

While the Packers are certainly vulnerable to the deep passing game (league-high 21 pass plays of 30-plus yards), it’s worth pointing out that Carson Palmer will be without his two deep threats, Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore, both injured. Without those two in the lineup Palmer may be inclined to work the short passing game rather than looking deep.

Special teams support our cause for the under as well. Raiders punter Shane Lechler is the best in the league. He should be able to prevent Rodgers and company from having it too easy in terms of field position. Meanwhile, Green Bay punter Tim Masthay—the reigning NFC Special Teams Player of the Week—is an outstanding directional kicker and an emerging stud himself. These teams will score, but there is reason to believe that they’ll have to work some field—and some clock as well—in the process.

It’s certainly a rare occurrence, but our two top plays this week are both on this game. Side and total: RAIDERS (+11.5) and the UNDER (51.5)—take your pick or take ‘em both.


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