Baseball Teams' Perceptions Doth Deceive Them

Let’s play that game where we compare two players without saying who they are until after discussing their respective performances in order to say to yourself, “Hmm, I didn’t realize that!” afterwards:

                    AB       OBP      ISO       HR  *OPS+  RBI
PLAYER A    3414    0.378    0.251    203    134    676
PLAYER B    3871    0.381    0.271    278    130    672

Player “A” is none other than the new pride of the New York Yankees, Mark Teixeira, the golden boy from Severna Park, Md., who was recently rewarded for his stellar performance on the baseball diamond with one of the richest contracts in the history of sport.

Player “B” on the other hand, is Adam Dunn, the “Big Donkey” who looks more like Will Ferrell than Lou Gehrig and currently sits on the heap of available free agents, dismissed by ESPN’s Karl Ravech as not being one of the “Main courses on the Baseball Tonight Hot Stove.”

The two players are both entering their age-29 seasons and have had almost identical careers to this point. So why has it been determined that Teixeira’s value is so much higher than Dunn’s?

For one thing, Dunn’s value hasn’t been established yet, however, most sources seem to agree that he is expected to sign a three- or four-year contract. The easiest conclusion to make is that baseball teams just don’t really know what they’re doing; Maybe Teixeira really is a better player than Dunn, but two or three times as valuable? No fucking way.

Honestly, I don’t know what the rationale is behind the perceived differences between these two guys. Maybe it has something to do with Teixeira delivering on the promise he showed when the Rangers drafted him with the 5th overall pick in 2001 out of Georgia State, handing him a $4.5 signing bonus to go with his major league contract.

Dunn was a second rounder whose best talents were initially expected to shine through on a football field. It’s also possible, although unlikely, that teams are still hung up on batting average, a statistic that is especially deceptive in this case, where Teixeira’s .290 outshines Dunn’s .247 despite the two players’ identical on-base rates.

The fact is that we’ll soon find out how teams value Adam Dunn, and if one of them is smart and lucky, they will be able to score nearly identical production to what the Yankees will get from their first baseman while paying far less.