12 College Football Teams That Wasted Their Talent in 2011

One of the key factors commonly utilized to predict how a college football team will perform in a given season is experience ratings, which involve analyzing precisely who is coming back from the previous season.

In terms of personnel turnover, college football is a fluid situation that is driven by the NFL draft, graduation rates and other factors that make the talent pool shrink and widen on a regular basis.

Gridiron number cruncher extraordinaire Phil Steele runs an advanced experience model that includes such factors as senior two-deep ratings and returning lettermen.

After establishing this baseline, Steele then takes the conversation to a whole new level by calculating what percentage of the previous season’s yard-earners and tackle-getters are returning and then caps it off by analyzing how much of the offensive line is coming back.

With the help of Steele and other numerical wizards, we had a fairly good idea of who should play well in 2011 based solely on returning talent levels, and now that the regular season has finished we can look back and pinpoint where expectations didn’t match results.

The following slideshow uses this mentality to identify 12 teams that came into the season with the rich talent pool necessary to make a run but somehow came up short on expected wins vs. losses.

It’s important to note that in this approach we’re not delving into other critical factors such as strength of schedule and injuries. We’re just discussing teams with the right number of starters who underwhelmed vs. the generally accepted forecasts.

Florida State

Florida State ranked No. 18 nationally in Phil Steele’s experience rankings coming into 2011 and also garnered the No. 1 ranking in returns in the ACC.

The Seminoles brought 11 seniors back in the two-deep, returned 80.6 percent of their lettermen from 2010, had 73 percent of their yard-producers back, brought 76 percent of their tacklers back and had a combined 115 starts among their offensive line.

All these numbers combined to contribute to the Seminoles' preseason Top 10 ranking and the predictions that they would capture the ACC Atlantic and vie for a conference crown and BCS spot.

This is exactly why (again, other factors aside) the Seminoles' 8-4 finish, tie for No. 2 in the Atlantic, exclusion from the final BCS rankings and narrow No. 25 ranking in both the Coaches and AP polls are so hard to stomach.

Somehow Florida State fell from talent-rich national championship contender to Champs Sports Bowl participant.

Northwestern

There is no doubt that the Wildcats (like virtually every other team on this list) had injury issues in 2011, but even that doesn’t completely dismiss the assertion that Northwestern left some talent on the table this season.

The Wildcats ranked No. 1 in Phil Steele’s analysis of the Big Ten experience ratings and were a lofty No. 2 from a national standpoint.

Delving deeper, we see that Northwestern brought back a whopping 19 seniors in the two-deep (16 starters), returned 80 percent of its lettermen, brought back 89 percent of the yard-gainers, returned 72 percent of its tacklers and had an offensive line that shared a mind-boggling 137 starts (second nationally only to SMU).

Though the Wildcats are definitely not returning the type of athletes that they do at Michigan or Ohio State, their 6-6 finish still has to be considered a disappointment for a program that has risen above the six-win mark in the previous three campaigns.

These feelings of disenchantment are surely amped up when considering the level of returning talent coming into 2011.

Texas A&M

The Aggies were yet another preseason Top 10 team that seemed to finally have all the stars aligned for a return to national prominence and diamond-encrusted championship rings.

Return rates had a lot to do with the heady feelings in the metropolis surrounding towering Kyle Field.

Texas A&M ranked No. 1 in the Big 12 in Phil Steele’s experience masterpiece and No. 8 nationally.

The Aggies returned 14 seniors in the two-deep (11 starters), 80.3 percent of their lettermen, 76 percent of their yard-gainers, 76 percent of the tacklers and an O-line with 86 starts between them.

This all makes the 6-6 finish, the plummet from possible Big 12 title-grabber and BCS dancer to No. 6 in the Big 12 (10) and a date with Northwestern in the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas seem borderline catastrophic.

A&M definitely didn’t play a patty-cake type of schedule, but when you stack up the painful number of losses vs. the deep talent pool, things just don’t add up.

Kansas

Kansas had the type of season where you could easily spin around the room with a blindfold on and correctly point out a myriad of reasons why it all went wrong.

Yes, 2-10 overall and 0-9 in Big 12 play is ugly no matter how you slice it or dice it.

Despite the realness of the results, though, Kansas had a bunch of guys back from its 3-9 product in 2010.

Yes, you could argue that fact either way (as a positive or negative), but it’s not like (on top of everything else) the '11 Jayhawks were a young, inexperienced team.

Kansas ranked No. 3 in the Big 12 in Phil Steele’s tour de force ratings and No. 31 nationally.

The Jayhawks had 10 seniors back in the two-deep, returned 63 percent of their lettermen, brought back 56 percent of their tackle production and had nationally high levels of yard-gainers back (a whopping 92 percent) and offensive line starts (97).

Kansas certainly didn’t have lofty expectations going into the 2011 season, but a slide backwards from three wins to two wins certainly isn’t in line with what was a fairly experienced bunch.

Rice

Rice may not have been predicted to win the C-USA West in 2011, but the Owls had the kind of depth necessary to make its first bowl since 2008 this season.

Phil Steele’s grid had Rice at No. 3 in the experience-rich C-USA and a lofty No. 5 from a national standpoint.

The Owls returned 12 seniors in the two-deep (11 were starters in 2010), brought back 74.6 percent of their letter winners, welcomed back a whopping 94 percent of yard-producers and 77 percent of the tacklers and had 109 starts between their returning offensive linemen.

So how did 2011 pan out for the experienced Owls?

Well, they finished 4-8, and other than a thrilling early-season win over Purdue, their three other victims combined for a 9-28 record in 2011.

Again, these guys weren’t going to prance around for a shot at the crystal football, but a bowl game certainly wasn’t an overly ambitious aim.

Notre Dame

Where some squads' expectations were squashed with injuries or a relentless schedule of fearsome foes, Notre Dame’s campaign was pockmarked and eventually derailed by turnovers.

Yes, the experience-rich and highly touted Irish were thwarted by a turnover margin of minus-13 (13 takeaways vs. 26 turnovers), which tied them for the No. 116 slot nationally (out of 120 teams).

A big part of the "era of good feelings" regarding the preseason fortunes of Notre Dame had to do with experience rankings that had Phil Steele singing a No. 27 tune nationally.

The Irish returned 12 seniors in the two-deep (eight starters), 79.2 percent of lettermen, 82 percent of 2010's yard-producers and 71 percent of the tacklers and had 63 previous starts among the returning offensive linemen.

Overall the numbers supported the thesis that Notre Dame was "back," which makes the 8-4 finish not disastrous, but definitely disappointing.

Miami (Ohio)

Not only did the RedHawks have one of the most experienced teams coming into the 2011 season, but they were also coming off a magical 2010 schedule that included a conference title, a bowl win and a 10-4 record.

Yes, Miami was returning guys who had tasted success, which was not the case with teams like Kansas, Rice, Colorado and UCLA.

Phil Steele’s ratings placed the RedHawks at No. 2 in experience in the MAC and No. 6 nationally—both numbers that made them look like a real player in 2011.

Miami posted impressive numbers in returning seniors in the two-deep (19), percent of lettermen returning (84.7 percent), tacklers returning (77 percent) and offensive line starts (85), but what propelled them up the charts was a 100 percent return of the yardage-producers from the 2010 squad.

All this makes the RedHawks' 4-8 finish look dismal regardless of the fact that they faced three BCS non-conference foes (Missouri, Minnesota and Cincinnati) early in the season.

Air Force

Though Air Force wasn’t expected to fly past Boise State in 2011, it was realistic to prognosticate that the Falcons' experience levels would put them in a position to challenge rebuilding TCU for the No. 2 spot in the MWC.

Mr. Steele had the Falcons ranked at No. 2 in the conference and No. 20 nationally in his experience opus, which signaled a factual basis for the hope felt among the high-flying airmen.

Air Force returned a whopping 25 seniors in the two-deep (17 starters), had 77.3 percent of letter-earners returning, brought back 72 percent of its yardage-gainers and returned 77 percent of its tacklers.

The only low number on the Falcons’ statistical résumé was the fact that their 2011 offensive line had only had 41 starts between them coming into the season (among the lowest in the country).

Amid this background, the 7-5 finish just doesn’t sit well, especially given the fact that this was Air Force’s most experienced squad in the Troy Calhoun era and it subsequently suffered the worst record.

The Falcons finished No. 5 in the MWC with only Colorado State, UNLV and New Mexico beneath them.

UCLA

The Bruins are another program that in 2011 brought back a bunch of experienced players from a team that struggled in 2010.

Yes, Señor Steele had UCLA ranked at No. 1 in the Pac-12 and No. 7 nationally in on-field experience, but at the end of the day this was a 4-8 team that had dropped six of its last seven games in 2010.

Despite the logic of that argument, this wasn’t a young, inexperienced team, which meant improvement wasn’t a trip to Fantasyland, but rather a realistic prediction.

UCLA returned 11 seniors in the two-deep (eight starters), returned 70.8 percent of its lettermen, brought back 71 percent of its tackle output and had 80 starts between the members of its 2011 O-line.

Like Miami, the stat that was most impressive for the Bruins from an experience standpoint was offensively, where they returned a full 100 percent of the players who cranked out their 2010 yardage total.

Yes, 6-7 in 2011 is better than 4-8 in 2010, but overall it would be hard to argue that UCLA improved enough to make anyone happy. I’d contend that, for the Bruins, it was another year where talent was not fully utilized.

Colorado

Are we kicking a dead horse by saying Colorado wasted its talent in its first campaign as a Pac-12 member?

Even though the Buffaloes have far greater issues than underutilized talent pools, I would argue yes.

Colorado may be a weak example of our thesis regarding experience, but this is still a team that ranked No. 2 in the Pac-12 and No. 22 in the nation in Phil Steele’s preseason experience derby.

Yes, it’s another example of a struggling team returning talent from a poor showing last season, but going from a 5-7 finish to 3-10 in 2011 doesn’t recommend a good use of returning talent.

In case you are curious, the Buffs returned 18 seniors in the two-deep (11 starters), brought back 70 percent of their lettermen, returned 65 percent of their yardage-producers and brought back 68 percent of their tacklers, and their incoming offensive line shared 97 starts between them.

Arizona State

Arizona State might not have had the high expectations of say, Texas A&M, but the Sun Devils were definitely in a realistic position to win their new division and make a run at a Pac-12 title coming into 2011.

Like all the other preseason Top 25 teams on our list, ASU had the experience and depth on its side to make predictions of winning seem logical.

The Sun Devils were ranked No. 3 in the Pac-12 in Phil Steele’s experience ratings and held the No. 25 spot nationally.

They returned a whopping 20 seniors in the two-deep (13 starters), 76 percent of their 2010 lettermen, 61 percent of their yardage-producers and 76 percent of their tacklers, and the O-line shared a full 84 starts.

Once the dust settled in the desert, the Sun Devils had six wins, six losses and a coaching search on their hands.

Mississippi State

Mississippi State’s alleged talent wasting is somewhat shielded by the fact that it played in the most fearsome division in all of college football.

Yes, the SEC West skews a bunch of numbers, including this one.

But facts are still facts, and the Bulldogs ranked No. 2 in the SEC and No. 16 nationally in experience coming into the season according to the ever-numerical Phil Steele.

They returned 14 seniors in the two-deep (nine starters), 64.7 percent of their lettermen and 61 percent of their tacklers, and the 2011 O-line shared 80 starts from previous play.

What stands out on the Bulldogs' résumé is the percentage of yardage-producers returning, which stood at a mighty 96 percent.

Thus, when considering the Bulldogs' 6-6 finish in 2011, it’s important to keep in mind that this was not a young, inexperienced group being mowed down by teams stacked with more seasoned players.

Mississippi State may have had a perilous schedule, but it had experienced players playing it.