2011 Bowl Schedule: The Ultimate Bowl Guide
It is the most wonderful time of the year, as college football's bowl season is finally upon us. Some are arguing that there are not many sexy matchups this time around, but I beg to differ.
The BCS bowls may not have the best teams out there, but I would not doubt the excitement that we will end up seeing.
College football is the best sport out there arguably because of the bowl season, and the pageantry that every single fan shows on his or her game day in December and January is something that we live for every year.
Whether you are a fan of the Rose Bowl or even the GoDaddy.com Bowl, I break down all 35 bowls with predicted winners!
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
1 of 35Wyoming Cowboys (8-4) vs. Temple Owls (8-4)
Dec. 17, 2 pm ET (ESPN)
Albuquerque, NM
University Stadium (39,224)
Payout: $750,000
Stat: Temple’s Bernard Pierce is America’s sixth-leading rusher, and the Cowboys are 115th against the run.
Breakdown: Wyoming plays in a solid Mountain West Conference and only has four losses, but they were by a combined average of 25 PPG. Temple led the MAC in total defense (15th in nation per yards allowed) and should be looking at its first bowl victory since 1979!
Owls 31, Cowboys 17
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
2 of 35Ohio Bobcats (9-4) vs. Utah State Aggies (7-5)
Dec. 17, 5:30 pm ET (ESPN)
Boise, ID
Bronco Stadium (33,500)
Payout: $750,000
Stat: Both teams love to run a bunch, as the Bobcats rank 24th (206 YPG) and the Aggies rank sixth (277 YPG) in rushing offense.
Breakdown: Utah State’s Robert Turbin is a beast, but the Bobcats are two-dimensional on offense and should prevail in a shootout.
Bobcats 35, Aggies 34
New Orleans Bowl
3 of 35San Diego State Aztecs (8-4) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-4)
Dec. 17, 9 pm ET (ESPN)
New Orleans, LA
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (76,468)
Payout: $500,000
Stat: Ronnie Hillman of San Diego State is America’s third-leading rusher, averaging 138 yards per game. Louisiana-Lafayette is just 55th in the nation against the run (144 YPG).
Breakdown: In the school’s third-ever bowl game, Louisiana-Lafayette has not won a bowl since 1943! Though the Ragin' Cajuns will be playing in their own backyard, I question if the defense can stop Hillman, let alone keep up with Ryan Lindley by putting up enough points.
Aztecs 38, Cajuns 31
Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl
4 of 35Florida International Panthers (8-4) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6)
Dec. 20, 8 pm ET (ESPN)
St. Petersburg, FL (42,735 without tarp-covered seats)
Payout: $500,000
Stat: T.Y. Hilton of FIU is 21st among all-purpose runners, averaging 146 yards per game.
Breakdown: Mario Cristobal attempts to give the Panthers consecutive bowl victories (second appearance), which would be sensational for a program that started to play in the FBS back in 2005. Doc Holliday leads the Herd despite a mediocre offense and a defense that has been modest at best.
Panthers 27, Herd 21
Poinsettia Bowl
5 of 35TCU Horned Frogs (10-2) vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4)
Dec. 21, 8 pm ET (ESPN)
San Diego, CA
Qualcomm Stadium (70,561)
Payout: $500,000
Stat: Frogs have ninth-rated scoring offense in country (41.6 PPG), and Bulldogs are 34th in scoring defense (22.5 PPG).
Breakdown: TCU will want to make a statement after being left out of the BCS, and it is a big favorite for a reason. They have legit athletes on both sides of the ball, but Casey Pachall has been sensational this season (227 YPG). Gary Patterson will call off the dogs early in the fourth quarter when it gets ugly.
Horned Frogs 38, Bulldogs 17
Maaco Bowl Las Vegas
6 of 35Boise State Broncos (11-1) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6)
Dec. 22, 8 pm ET (ESPN)
Las Vegas, NV
Sam Boyd Stadium (36,800, expandable to 40,000)
Payout: $1.1 million
Stat: Broncos are seventh in scoring offense (43 PPG), and the Sun Devils are 64th in scoring defense (26 PPG).
Breakdown: Boise State was left out of the BCS for a Virginia Tech team that came off a blowout loss to Clemson. Also, Kellen Moore will be playing in his final collegiate game. He is a legend, and becoming the winningest QB in FBS history (49 wins) is just one of the many reasons why the Smurfs will attempt to run the score up.
ASU is looking for a new head coach and can hang with Chris Petersen for at least a half, but it just takes one Doug Martin run to put this game on ice against a team that went 0-4 in November.
Broncos 42, Sun Devils 24
Hawaii Bowl
7 of 35Southern Miss Golden Eagles (11-2) vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5)
Dec. 24, 8 pm ET (ESPN)
Honolulu, HI
Aloha Stadium (50,000)
Payout: $750,000
Stat: Southern Miss has scored 13 non-offensive touchdowns this season, which is the most among any team in the FBS. Nevada has the fifth-rated offense, averaging 522 YPG.
Breakdown: Larry Fedora wanted a piece of a BCS team but will have to settle for Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl. The defense is a glaring strength for the Golden Eagles and a clear weakness for Chris Ault’s squad.
Golden Eagles 34, Wolf Pack 21
Independence Bowl
8 of 35Missouri Tigers (7-5) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5)
Dec. 26, 5 pm ET (ESPN2)
Shreveport, LA
Independence Stadium (53,000)
Payout: $1.15 million
Stat: The Tigers boast the 12th-rated offense, averaging 472 YPG, while the Tar Heels average 396 YPG (52nd).
Breakdown: Mizzou will be without its original starting running back Henry Josey (knee), but quarterback James Franklin has really improved despite turning it over a bit against Kansas. Franklin is 15th in the nation, averaging 297 YPG, and UNC signal-caller Bryn Renner averages 222 YPG (62nd total offense). This battle of young throwers will be a solid game despite both teams having disappointing seasons.
Heels 27, Tigers 24
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
9 of 35Western Michigan Broncos (7-5) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (6-6)
Dec. 27, 4:30 pm ET (ESPN)
Detroit, MI
Ford Field (65,000)
Payout: $750,000
Stat: Broncos receiver Jordan White is simply the best statistically speaking, as he averaged just under 13 catches a game and 137 YPG.
Breakdown: The bad news for Bronco fans is that they rank 107th against the run, which Purdue will take advantage of since it is loaded at tailback (Ralph Bolden), averaging 174 YPG.
Boilermakers 35, Broncos 31
Belk Bowl
10 of 35North Carolina State Wolfpack (7-5) vs. Louisville Cardinals (7-5)
Dec. 27, 8 pm ET (ESPN)
Charlotte, NC
Bank of America Stadium (73,778)
Payout: $1.7 million
Stat: The 'Ville is 94th in rushing (122 YPG), and the Pack are just 107th (108 YPG).
Breakdown: Louisville has been rejuvenated, as true freshman Teddy Bridgewater has developed throughout the season as a passer, but he may go through some growing pains against North Carolina State’s tremendous secondary (24 INT, leads nation).
Pack 23, Cards 20
Military Bowl
11 of 35Toledo Rockets (8-4) vs. Air Force Falcons (7-5)
Dec. 28, 4:30 pm ET (ESPN)
Washington, DC
RFK Stadium (46,000)
Payout: $862,500
Stat: The Falcons are second in rushing offense (320 YPG), and the Rockets run defense isn’t too shabby, ranking 28th (123 YPG).
Breakdown: Air Force enters as the underdog but should give the Rockets all they can handle with its ball-control offense led by Tim Jefferson and Asher Clark. However, Eric Page and Adonis Thomas will give the Falcons defense some major issues.
Rockets 38, Falcons 32
Holiday Bowl
12 of 35Cal Bears (7-5) vs. Texas Longhorns (7-5)
Dec. 28, 8 pm ET (ESPN)
San Diego, CA
Qualcomm Stadium (70,561)
Payout: $2.15 million
Stat: Keenan Allen is 12th in the nation, averaging 105 YPG, and his half-brother Zach Maynard at quarterback has been able to find him at will.
Breakdown: The Longhorns have been tough to watch this season, and coming off an emotional win over the Aggies they were lit up like a Christmas tree by Robert Griffin III and Baylor. Offensively, they have been a turnover machine and have had a rash of injuries. Cal may want this game more since it is playing close to home and Teddy Bear is on the hot seat.
Bears 28, Longhorns 26
Champs Sports Bowl
13 of 35Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) vs. Florida State Seminoles (8-4)
Dec. 29, 5:30 pm ET (ESPN)
Orlando, FL
Citrus Bowl (70,000)
Payout: $2.325 million
Stat: Florida State is as dominant against the run as any team in the entire country. Linebacker Nigel Bradham plays behind one of the elite defensive lines in the nation (second in run D, sixth in total).
Breakdown: The Irish will have a solid freshman starting under center in Andrew Hendrix, but he will be going up the best defense his entire team will have faced all season. The offense is brutal for the Seminoles, but Notre Dame is much stronger against the run than it is against the pass. FSU will spread the Irish out and kick a boatload of field goals in a nip-and-tuck entertaining affair.
Noles 22, Irish 20
Alamo Bowl
14 of 35Baylor Bears (9-3) vs. Washington Huskies (7-5)
Dec. 29, 9 pm ET (ESPN)
San Antonio, TX
Alamodome (65,000, expandable to 72,000)
Payout: $3.175 million
Stat: Robert Griffin III will likely win the Heisman, but he is also second in the country in total offense (387 YPG)
Breakdown: The boys from Waco are unstoppable right now, and the Huskies defense has been questionable at best (94th). The best hope for Washington is that it hangs 40 points and/or causes at least three turnovers. Fat chance!
Bears 45, Huskies 28
Armed Forces Bowl
15 of 35BYU Cougars (9-3) vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-4)
Dec. 30, noon ET (ESPN)
Ft. Worth, TX
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (32,000)
Payout: $600,000
Stat: Tulsa is only 90th in total defense, and the Cougars are a respectable 17th in the nation, allowing only 316 YPG.
Breakdown: Tulsa can keep up with the Cougars offensively, but BYU has slowed down a few good offenses this year, which is something that cannot be said for the Golden Hurricane.
Cougars 28, Golden Hurricane 24
Pinstripe Bowl
16 of 35Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-4) vs. Iowa State Cyclones (6-6)
Dec. 30, 3:20 pm ET (ESPN)
Bronx, NY
Yankee Stadium (54,251)
Payout: $1.8 million
Stat: The Cyclones have been solid at running the football, ranking 35th (181 YPG). Rutgers has been solid against the pass, ranking 10th (168 YPG), but has had its struggles against the run, allowing 146 YPG (57th).
Breakdown: Rutgers will have some home-field advantage, but the Big East has not had quite the same competition that Iowa State has had. Paul Rhoads and the Cyclones have accomplished quite a bit, but this game will not be an easy one since they are the slight underdogs.
Cyclones 24, Scarlet Knights 23
Music City Bowl
17 of 35Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6)
Dec. 30, 6:40 pm ET (ESPN)
Nashville, TN
LP Field (69,143)
Payout: $1,837,500
Stat: WF only averages 374 yards per game (76th).
Breakdown: Wake was looking really sharp in the ACC after it beat the Seminoles, but it collapsed a bit towards the end of the season when it was obliterated by Vanderbilt. Its offense lacks game-breakers (save Chris Givens), and the defense is often put in difficult positions due to bad field position.
Bulldogs 24, Deacons 13
Insight Bowl
18 of 35Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (9-3)
Dec. 30, 10 pm ET (ESPN)
Tempe, AZ
Sun Devil Stadium (71,706)
Payout: $3.35 million
Stat: Oklahoma is the largest favorite of the entire bowl season (16 points), but Iowa has always been a great bowl team and has currently won three straight bowl games under Kirk Ferentz.
Breakdown: Despite being huge underdogs, the Hawkeyes will come and play Big Ten football. They will attempt to win the line of scrimmage and will throw everything possible at Landry Jones. This game reminds me of Missouri-Northwestern in the Alamo Bowl back a few years, where the Big Ten underdog gave everything it had against the Big 12 and fell just short.
Sooners 31, Hawkeyes 27
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas
19 of 35Northwestern Wildcats (6-6) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (6-6)
Dec. 31, noon ET (ESPN)
Houston, TX
Reliant Stadium (71,500)
Payout: $1.7 million
Stat: The Aggies are 113th on defense against the pass, and Northwestern is 35th in passing offense.
Breakdown: This will be a shootout since both teams rank outside the top 60 in scoring and total defense. Ryan Tannehill has a few solid options (Cyrus Gray is “50-50”), and hopefully the Aggies will be able to hang on to a lead.
Dan Persa will find Jeremy Ebert and Kain Colter early and often in this matchup. The Aggies will be without head coach Mike Sherman, and the ‘Cats will be pumped since they are still attempting to get their first bowl victory since 1949!
Cats 38, Aggies 35
Sun Bowl
20 of 35Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4) vs. Utah Utes (7-5)
Dec. 31, 2 pm ET (CBS)
El Paso, TX
Sun Bowl (50,426)
Payout: $2 million
Stat: The Yellow Jackets are third in rushing offense (316 YPG), but the Utes are seventh in rushing defense (97 YPG).
Breakdown: Even though Georgia Tech has been inconsistent at throwing the ball when it becomes 3rd-and-long, it has not mattered because it rarely happens. Utah has been abysmal offensively (110th), and Georgia Tech’s defense has been solid all year.
Jackets 28, Utes 20
Liberty Bowl
21 of 35Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6)
Dec. 31, 3:30 pm ET (ABC)
Tempe, AZ
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (61,008)
Payout: $1.7 million
Stat: The Commodores have one of the best defenses in the country as they are 19th in total defense, allowing 324 yards per game. As we know, the SEC is darn good defensively, which means Vandy is technically behind Alabama (first), LSU (second), UGA (third), SC (fourth) and UF (ninth) in total defensive yards allowed per game.
Breakdown: Tim Fugger (foo-ger) made honorable mention in the SEC at defensive line, which speaks volumes, but it has been this Commodores defense collectively that has given fits to the likes of Georgia, Arkansas and Florida. This squad could win a few non-BCS conferences and could arguably beat any team in the entire Big East.
We will find out if its speed is for real on the national stage against a Bearcats team that will be led by tailback Isaiah Pead, who is 39th in the nation in rushing (92.5 YPG).
'Dores 24, Bearcats 17
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
22 of 35UCLA Bruins (6-7) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6)
Dec. 31, 3:30 pm ET (ESPN)
San Francisco, CA
AT&T Park (41,915)
Payout: $837,500
Stat: Illini is 91st in scoring offense, averaging just 22.8 PPG (15 past six games), and the Bruins are 85th, averaging 23.7 PPG.
Breakdown: This bowl game should be called the “Unemployment Bowl" or "Find Me a Coach Bowl” since neither team currently has a coach. Rumor has it the Illini will find a coach around their bowl game for the near future. For the Bruins, offensive coordinator Mike Johnson will take over for Rick Neuheisel, whereas the Illini will have defensive coordinator Vic Koenning taking over for Ron Zook. As for the game, expect some points, though they will come at a premium.
Bruins 16, Illini 14
Chick-fil-A Bowl
23 of 35Auburn Tigers (7-5) vs. Virginia Cavaliers (8-4)
Dec. 31, 7:30 pm ET
Atlanta, GA
Georgia Dome (71,228)
Payout: $3,967,500 for ACC and $2,932,500 for SEC
Stat: The Wahoos rank 88th in scoring offense (23 PPG), but luckily they will be going up against a defense that has its share fair of troubles on defense, allowing 29 PPG.
Breakdown: Historically speaking, this is usually among the top five non-BCS bowls every single postseason. Not so much this season with an overachieving squad coached by Mike London, whereas the defending national champions are coming into this game with a disappointing season. This is your classic letdown, though Auburn will prove that theory wrong in this close, contested game that comes down to a final kick.
Tigers 24, Cavaliers 23
TicketCity Bowl
24 of 35Houston Cougars (12-1) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3)
Jan. 2, noon ET (ESPN U)
Dallas, TX
Cotton Bowl (92,100)
Payout: $1.1 million
Stat: The Cougars lead the country in PPG (50), and Penn State averages only 19.75 (110th). However, the Cougars are just 77th against the run (172 YPG), which is the bread and butter of the Nittany Lions offense.
Breakdown: We are about to find out just how good the Cougars are, especially since they are coming off a devastating loss that cost them a BCS bowl. Will D.J. Hayden, Sammy Brown, Marcus McGraw and company be able to handle the physical style of play that Penn State will bring over from the Big Ten?
Nittany Lions 31, Cougars 28
Gator Bowl
25 of 35Ohio State Buckeyes (6-6) vs. Florida Gators (6-6)
Jan. 2, 1 pm ET (ESPN 2)
Jacksonville, FL
EverBank Field (84,000)
Payout: $2.7 million
Stat: The Gators will have their hands full with Braxton Miller, but they are ninth in the country in total defense. Luckily, Ohio State has been solid with Daniel Herron being back, as it ranks 27th in rushing offense (195 YPG).
Breakdown: The “Urban Meyer Bowl,” as many have called it, will not have many points. The Gators offense has struggled miserably with the often-injured John Brantley, but the Gators defense has been exceptional in the trenches. DeVier Posey may be the difference in the game since he could come down with a big catch when need be. However, the Buckeyes will be challenged all the way down to the final whistle.
Buckeyes 24, Gators 20
Outback Bowl
26 of 35Michigan State Spartans (10-3) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (10-3)
Jan. 2, 1 pm ET (ABC)
Tampa, FL
Raymond James Stadium (65,857, expandable to 75,000)
Payout: $3.5 million
Stat: Sparty ranks 11th against the pass, whereas the Dawgs are 49th in passing offense. Something has to give in what is arguably the top non-BCS matchup.
Breakdown: In my eyes this is the most anticipated matchup for non-BCS bowls, not just because these are the two losers of the Big Ten and SEC championship games.
The Big Ten needs Sparty to show up, unlike last season, and the MSU defense is capable of limiting a potent Bulldogs offense. Will Kirk Cousins have the time to dissect a secondary that is led by All-SEC safety Bacarri Rambo and future NFL players Branden Smith and Brandon Boykin? Aaron Murray cannot do it all by himself; he will need SEC Freshman of the Year Isaiah Crowell and/or Richard Samuel IV to have their best games of the season collectively.
Bulldogs 30, Spartans 28
Capital One Bowl
27 of 35Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2)
Jan. 2, 1 pm ET (ESPN)
Orlando, FL
Citrus Bowl (70,000)
Payout: $4.6 million
Stat: The Huskers are 13th in the nation in rushing offense but will be going against a Cocky defense that is fourth in total defense (268 YPG).
Breakdown: The Huskers have a shot if they can somehow control the line of scrimmage, but the Gamecocks may have the most talented defensive line in the country outside of LSU.
Plus, if Taylor Martinez is ever going to become an All-American (or just All-Big Ten), he needs to carry this team on his back despite his subpar supporting cast. Nebraska’s Rex Burkhead is one fine player, but there has not been enough consistency around him to say the Big Ten will rule the SEC in your classic defensive battle.
Gamecocks 23, Huskers 17
Rose Bowl
28 of 35Wisconsin Badgers (11-2) vs. Oregon Ducks (11-2)
Jan. 2, 5 pm ET (ESPN)
Pasadena, CA
Rose Bowl (94,392 was last year's attendance)
Payout: $17 million
Stat: Both offenses are arguably the most explosive in the entire country, as the Ducks are third in scoring (46 PPG) and the Badgers are fourth (44.6 PPG).
Breakdown: The Badgers and Ducks may give us the most entertaining game for the entire postseason. I cannot include Alabama-LSU since it is for all the marbles, but I am not sure there is a better game any year than the “Granddaddy of Them All,” and the explosive playmakers in this game are at an all-time high. LaMichael James, Montee Ball, Russell Wilson, Darron Thomas, Nick Toon, De'Anthony Thomas, Kenjon Barner and Jared Abbrederis are just a few of the stars to watch for.
I am done talking about the offenses, as great as they are, because it is the defenses that also helped get them here (goes both arguments since they were both teams' downfall in two losses). Oregon better get to the Houdini known as Russell Wilson, or else it may lose its third straight BCS bowl. Chip Kelly and Oregon have done nearly everything imaginable, but they have not yet won a bowl game together (0-2).
Darron Thomas enters the perfect national spotlight game to let the entire country know he is every bit as productive and talented as Mr. Wilson with the weapons he is surrounded by. Wisconsin has had a hard time on special teams, and we all know the Ducks can bring back a kick on any given attempt. Look for a thriller with a boatload of points in what should be the top bonkers game of the 2012 bowl season.
Ducks 45, Badgers 38 (overtime)
Fiesta Bowl
29 of 35Stanford Cardinal (11-1) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1)
Jan. 2, 8:30 pm ET (ESPN)
Glendale, AZ
University of Phoenix Stadium (63,400, expandable to at least 78,600)
Payout: $17 million
Stat: The Cowboys are second in scoring offense (49 PPG), and Stanford is fifth (43.5 PPG).
Breakdown: Could this match the Rose Bowl? Andrew Luck and Brandon Weeden are both superstars, and they have solid supporting casts, though the Cowboys look a lot more explosive. However, Stanford may have the better defense. If Stanford can play ball-control offense, then I would not doubt the Cardinal can pull off the upset.
However, Mike Gundy and the Cowboys will attempt to make a national statement with a huge victory over Stanford’s secondary that ranks just 78th (241 YPG).
Luck may need a 400-yard type of game against the Pokes secondary that is even worse, ranking 102nd (265 YPG). Bank on Joseph Randle and Justin Blackmon doing everything they can to hang half a hundred on the fourth-ranked team in the country, but they will need all the points they can get.
Cowboys 42, Cardinal 34
Sugar Bowl
30 of 35Michigan Wolverines (10-2) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2)
Jan. 3, 8:30 pm ET (ESPN)
New Orleans, LA
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (76,468)
Payout: $17 million
Stat: The Wolverines are improved defensively, ranking 35th against the run (129 YPG), but the Hokies have a legit ground game to counter, ranking 31st (188 YPG).
Breakdown: Virginia Tech will hear nothing other than how it has no business playing in a BCS bowl. Even the ESPNU crew thought the Hokies had no shot, but clearly it jinxed Boise State and Kansas State before the BCS selection show (even though rumors were swirling).
It will be interesting to see what Logan Thomas can do in the passing game against a shaky secondary at times, but it is imperative that David Wilson gets 20-plus touches in this game for the Hokies to pull off the upset. The ACC is just 2-7 all-time in the BCS and had never had an at-large bid in the BCS before. Speaking of never, this is the first time a BCS at-large bid ended up playing in a BCS bowl coming off its second loss!
This is uncharted territory for this new Michigan staff, and if they struggle to run the ball, hopefully they can find ways to look for Roy Roundtree, Kevin Kroger, Jeremy Gallon and Junior Hemingway. That will be crucial because that will be the matchup to look for in terms of them stretching the field against a talented Hokies secondary with a healthy Jayron Hosley.
This will be a back-and-forth game with many lead changes, but I look for Bud Foster and Frank Beamer to find a way to pull off the monster upset, or so it seems with the national media’s hatred against a Virginia Tech team that even I believe has no business playing in this bowl. Well, Beamer and the boys haven’t won 10 games in eight straight seasons for no reason—bank on the upset.
Hokies 28, Wolverines 24
Orange Bowl
31 of 35Clemson Tigers (11-2) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3)
Jan. 4, 8 pm ET (ESPN)
Miami, FL
Sun Life Stadium (75,192)
Payout: $17 million
Stat: Both teams are potent in the passing game with Clemson ranking 21st (284 YPG) and West Virginia ranking seventh (341 YPG).
Breakdown: This game will come down to Clemson’s front four against the Mountaineers offensive line. If Geno Smith gets zero running game, this game will not come down to the wire. Tajh Boyd has way too many options for the Mountaineers to stop, and if the Big East can give the Mountaineers major issues, I would look for Dabo Swinney and the boys to hang some points on the board.
Tigers 38, Mountaineers 24
Cotton Bowl
32 of 35Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (10-2)
Jan. 5, 8 pm ET (FOX)
Arlington, TX
Cowboys Stadium (Football: 80,000; expandable to 111,000 with standing room)
Payout: $3.625 million
Stat: The Wildcats are 29th in rushing offense, averaging 193 YPG, but Arkansas has not been respectable against the run, allowing 174 yards per game (79th).
Breakdown: The Wildcats will play inspired because they were left out of the BCS, but the Razorbacks have a major advantage on the offensive side of the ball. Tyler Wilson will pick his poison with a ton of receivers running downfield. I think Collin Klein will get his, but the defense better come away with a few huge turnovers, and the Wildcats need to own the battle of field position to pull this off in the national spotlight against a solid SEC squad.
Razorbacks 34, Wildcats 24
BBVA Compass Bowl
33 of 35Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) vs. SMU Mustangs (7-5)
Jan. 7, 1 pm ET (ESPN)
Birmingham, AL
Legion Field (71,594)
Payout: $900,000 for SEC, $600,000 for Big East
Stat: Pitt ranks 41st in total defense, allowing only 354 YPG, but the Mustangs have a decent defense of their own, ranking 37th (351 YPG).
Breakdown: Even without Ray Graham, Zach Brown has been able to fill in admirably for the Panthers. SMU will chuck it around a bunch but will not have enough success when the fourth quarter rolls around.
Panthers 28, Mustangs 20
GoDaddy.Com Bowl
34 of 35Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3) vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-2)
Jan. 8, 9 pm ET (ESPN)
Mobile, AL
Ladd-Peebles Stadium (40,646)
Payout: $750,000
Stat: The Huskies are 10th in total offense, averaging 481 yards per game, but the Red Wolves are 25th, averaging 453 yards per game.
Breakdown: This game will feature a boatload of points with Chandler Harnish going up against another solid quarterback in Ryan Aplin.
Most are aware of Harnish, so most think the Huskies are the better team. However, NIU has struggled mightily on defense against balanced offenses, and Arkansas State is just that. The Huskies have been solid in bowl games because of their ability to finish off games, but they do not have enough studs to slow down a potent Arkansas State offense.
Red Wolves 31, Huskies 26
BCS National Championship Game
35 of 35LSU Tigers (13-0) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1)
Jan. 9, 8:30pm ET (ESPN)
New Orleans, LA
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (76,468)
Payout: $18 million
Stat: Alabama has the top-ranked defense in many categories, but none more important than on third-down conversions (25 percent). LSU is surprisingly just 23rd, allowing a conversion 35 percent of the time.
Breakdown: There will be 35 days to break this game down, so you may even learn about some of the girlfriends of these players. However, field position will be vital. All-SEC punter Brad Wing can kick a ball into orbit, so it may even be more important that Trent Richardson breaks a few long gains to open up the playbook.
A.J. McCarron needs to avoid any turnovers, or else Tyrann Mathieu and the LSU defense will have an opportunity to make the Tide eat crow for a long time if they can beat them twice in one season.
I may be changing my pick a few times before kickoff, but this LSU squad has looked like a team on a mission ever since the opener.
Bayou Bengals 20, Crimson Tide 17
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