Sugar Bowl 2012: Projected and Analyzed Matchups with Bold Prediction

The regular season is over and what a slate of games we had on championship weekend.

Just when everybody thought they had it figured out with the Houston Cougars, they were thumped in their own stadium to Southern Miss, 49-28. The game was never close once the third quarter took its toll.

The defensive pursuit and speed was malicious against Case Keenum and there was no breathing room once the Cougars trailed. 

So, who now gets their shot in the Sugar Bowl?

Well, wouldn't we all like to know? In my eyes I am almost as intrigued about the final BCS at-large bid as I am about who plays LSU.

The biggest question that we will await is if TCU cracks the Top 16 in the final BCS Rankings. If they make it then they are automatically in the BCS since they will likely be ranked ahead of the Big East champions (West Virginia).

The Coaches Poll ranked TCU at No. 15 but the projected Harris Poll has them at No. 17 which would mean TCU is likely to be left out of the BCS. Unless, of course the computers were impressed enough to move up TCU in their very own rankings.

TCU was at No. 18 a week ago but the computers had them at the following: 21, 15, 19, 23, 19 and 16 which came out to an average of 18.

Georgia was smoked and will likely drop behind the Horned Frogs since none of the voters had the Bulldogs to begin with.

They would still have to climb over one more team and of course Clemson could leapfrog them (no pun intended) which would then essentially mean that TCU would need to jump up three spots.

Houston may drop far because the Coaches Poll moved them to No. 17, right behind TCU and Baylor (who they magically dropped behind TCU despite Robert-Griffin III beating the Frogs).

This really is mass confusion and it will come down to six wisemen who very likely will determine the $10 million (give or take) that will be going to the Mountain West one way or another.

Will it be Boise State, who lost to TCU on their home field, despite it being their only loss, or will it actually be the Horned Frogs (10-2)? Also, don't forget that Kansas State could step in the BCS if Oklahoma State leapfrogs Alabama.

TCU lost in overtime at home to a mediocre SMU team that has not received praise by any of the pollsters, and it doesn't help that one of these teams they are battling with already beat them (though it was in September).

It really comes down to the voters either wanting the Broncos in or out of the BCS because they know what is at stake. TCU just needs a few additional votes.

Many "experts" have listed TCU as the team to be favored to play in the Sugar Bowl, though even the select few who have given their opinions do not know for sure (myself included). 

However, we can make our best judgments into what the rankings will look like. TCU in my eyes will get the short end of the deal because there are too many teams they have to sneak by in order to crack the Top 16 (BCS loves OU and Houston way too much as Houston and VT may still finish ahead of TCU as well).

I give the very slightest of edges to Boise State, though it will undoubtedly be the tightest race we have ever seen in the BCS era for selecting/voting on the final at-large bid.

The Sugar Bowl matchup is a completely different animal because it depends on if Oklahoma State is playing LSU or not. If it is Alabama-LSU then we will likely have Michigan and Boise State battle it out in Louisiana—that is, of course, if TCU does not crack the Top 16.

If TCU cracks the Top 16, Boise State is out and we will likely see TCU in the Orange Bowl and a Michigan-West Virginia matchup since the Sugar Bowl has been known to pass on non-AQ teams in favor of a team like West Virginia.

If Oklahoma State plays LSU for all the marbles then the matchup will be easier to digest. The Crimson Tide would take the tie-in for the Sugar Bowl with their likely opponent to be Stanford!

Remember, the Sugar Bowl gets the first selection if the two SEC teams are playing for the BCS title, but they will get the second pick if it is Oklahoma State and LSU.

The Fiesta Bowl would be forced or likely to take Michigan if Alabama lands in the Sugar, so Andrew Luck against Saban's defense could be what we are looking at. 

Wow, I think I broke down every single possibility for this prestigious bowl. However, give me Boise State and Michigan at the moment with Kellen Moore prevailing in a shootout, 38-35.