Liverpool FC: The Importance of a Great December on Reds Champions League Hopes

Liverpool have had a great run of late. With the club having either drawn or won in every game since their embarrassment against Tottenham in September, they are well on their way to a great finish.

However, despite their undefeated streak having moved on to 11 after their second Stamford Bridge victory over Chelsea in just over a week, there is no discounting the importance of the month of December on their Champions League aspirations.

The Reds have managed to get through their first run of games against Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City, and have claimed eight out of those 12 points available, and honestly deserved to have taken all 12, but they drew at home to both Manchester clubs.

Their real issue has been one that has plagued them for the last several seasons, dropping points to clubs they should not be. Kenny Dalglish has managed to limit the losses to bottom-half sides since his appointment, but there still should be more coming from these games for the club.

Another problem the club has seen in the past few season has been a number of embarrassing losses at home to lower talent sides. The Northampton Town Carling Cup game last season, in particular, was awful to see, as was the 1-2 defeat to Blackpool at home.

So far this season, home draws against Norwich City, Swansea, Sunderland and an away loss to Stoke City have cost the Reds what should have been a rather cut-and-dry additional 12 points, from which they only earned three. If they had taken the full 12, then the table would have the Reds right there with Manchester City and Manchester United at the top.

The biggest ambition for the Reds' end result is a return to Champions League action. That being said, they have to finish at least fourth to qualify, but figuring out how many points they would need to do that? In hopes of answering that, below is a table of the final point totals for third, fourth and the Europa League fifth-place finish in the English Premier League over the last 10 seasons.

English Premier League Average Points for 3rd-5th 2002-2011
Season	3rd	4th	5th
2011	71	68	62
2010	75	70	67
2009	83	72	63
2008	83	76	65
2007	68	68	60
2006	82	67	62
2005	88	61	58
2004	85	60	56
2003	69	67	64
2002	77	71	66
Average	76	68	63

Currently the Reds are on pace to finish with 67 points if they maintain their 23 points per 13 games pace. It is a perfectly possible finishing number for a fourth-place club this season, due to the parity that is rocking the top of the table at the moment.

However, if Liverpool blitz through December and take victory against all opposition, they will increase their points per match average to just over two and possibly set themselves up for a chance at a finishing total of 81 points. Far-fetched though it may seem, if the Reds hit form this month and still have a slight dip later on in the season, they should be looking for a comfortable finish between 70-73 points, barring any unfortunate major missteps. 

So, what is the Reds' December schedule, you might ask. They start their month-long run to the transfer window with a match against Fulham at Craven Cottage on Monday December 5th, 2011. It should be a win for the Reds, as their away form has been excellent this season.

Following a trip to London, the Reds host Queens Park Rangers at Anfield on December 10th, 2011. The Kop has had a great atmosphere so far this season, but the club have to overcome their mental block of not finishing off games at home.

Aston Villa poses the third test, as the Reds travel to Villa Park on December 18th, 2011. The Villains started strong, but have began to stumble, and what was a great unbeaten run to start their season has only seen them manage to take 16 points from their possible 39 so far.

The fixture congestion at the end of the year starts following the Villa game, as the Reds return home to Anfield to face off against Wigan Athletic on December 21st, 2011. Their Boxing Day clash sees them face Blackburn Rovers on December 26th, once more at Anfield, before making a trip far to the north.

That trip north is to St. James Park and Newcastle United on December 30th, 2011. The Reds and Magpies have a history of great matches, and each club's last match of the season should be a cracker in front of the 50,000-plus Toon crowd.

All five of the Reds' games before the Newcastle match are should-wins, and the match with the Magpies is a toss-up, but could be more likely a Liverpool win if they have a strong month.

It is completely doable for Liverpool to win out the rest of the season and claim an extra 18 points before the January window. Personally, I believe they will probably get about 14 of them.

The only thing left to do at this point is to sit back, support the club and let King Kenny and his charges do the rest.

For this week's EPL match preview of Liverpool at Fulham, plus all 10 of the league matchups this weekend, check out the B/R weekly preview, English Premier League: EPL Week 14 Previews and Predictions.

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