BCS Rankings: Making a Case for Why Each One-Loss Team Deserves a Title Shot

The BCS situation is fairly clear at this point in time.

LSU is going to the national title game and unless Oklahoma State, Stanford, Virginia Tech or Boise State can overtake Alabama in the BCS rankings, then we’re looking at Tigers vs. Tide II for all the marbles.

Yes, you can rant about the unfairness of a system that allows a team that didn’t even compete for the conference championship to play for the big cheesy enchilada, but the truth is the BCS is the system currently governing college football’s national championship, and (for now) we’re stuck with it.

So, what exactly will it take for one of the four “other” one-loss teams to overtake Alabama and be declared the No. 2 team in college football and therefore advance to the BCS title game?

The following slideshow presents a resume for each one-loss squad and then makes an argument for how and why they should go to the title game if they win out (or, in the case of Stanford and Alabama they sit home and then go).

The final slide will power-rank the gridiron defendants in terms of the strength of their cases, ultimately declaring a true No. 2.

Boise State

Current BCS Ranking: 7

Current Harris Poll Ranking: 8

Current USA Today Ranking: 8

Current BCS Computer Ranking: 9

The Broncos are 10-1 and have 1-10 New Mexico at home on Saturday evening, which signals the end of their 2011 campaign.

Boise State has played one ranked team this season (Georgia) and the Bulldogs are still among the best 25 teams in the land.

Boise State has faced seven teams with a winning record this season and combined, their 2011 opponents (including New Mexico) are 66-72 this season, which represents a  47.83 winning percentage.

The Broncos' one loss was at home to 9-2 TCU, who is currently ranked No. 18 in the country and will win the MWC crown if they knock off 2-9 UNLV this weekend.

Based on the current BCS rankings, Boise State simply doesn’t have a realistic shot at jumping over any team ranked above them unless they lose (and only Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech have games left to play).

Boise State’s strongest argument to move up is that they played seven teams with winning records (this actually ties them with Oklahoma State for first place in that category among one-loss teams) but this is washed away by the fact that they played a weaker schedule than anyone on the list and they lost to a team at home that wasn’t ranked at the time.

To illustrate the Broncos' position, they are currently ranked below Houston in each of the three key BCS rankings (Harris poll, USA Today poll and the computer rankings).

Virginia Tech

Current BCS Ranking: 5

Current Harris Poll Ranking: 4

Current USA Today Ranking: 3

Current BCS Computer Ranking: 10

Virginia Tech is 11-1 and will play No. 20 Clemson this Saturday night for the ACC championship.

The Hokies have played two ranked opponents this year (Clemson and Georgia Tech) and only Clemson remains in the Top 25; their rematch with the Tigers will technically bring their ranked opponent total up to three.

Virginia Tech is the only one-loss team not to have faced a BCS team in non-conference play.

The Hokies have faced only five teams who ended 2011 with a winning record and overall, their opponents combine for a 71-60 record this season (54.2 percent).

Virginia Tech’s one loss came at home to then-No. 13 Clemson, which finished the season 9-2.

The Hokies' argument to jump over Stanford, Oklahoma State and Alabama is shaky at best.

First and foremost, if Virginia Tech beats up on Clemson, then they’re the conference champion of a BCS league (only Oklahoma State can compete with that claim) and if they do defeat the Tigers, then in theory, they’ve now beaten the only team that has defeated them.

From every other statistical approach it’s hard to argue that the Hokies belong higher (or can climb higher because the computers don’t fancy them and have them below BSU and Houston), simply because their schedule is inherently weaker than the others in terms of ranked opponents (who are still ranked) and non conference play.

Still, if you’re an advocate of a conference champion playing in the big game, Virginia Tech is one of only two potential options.

The Hokies must make a huge statement against Clemson and hope Oklahoma State goes down in flames vs. Oklahoma to even enter into the argument.

Stanford

Current BCS Ranking: 4

Current Harris Poll Ranking: 3

Current USA Today Ranking: 4

Current BCS Computer Ranking: 4

At 11-1 and out of the Pac-12 title game, Stanford has rested its case and will have to sit back and see what happens this weekend.

The Cardinal has faced four ranked foes this season (Washington, USC, Oregon and Notre Dame), only two of which are still in the Top 25 (USC and Oregon).

Stanford faced two non-conference BCS opponents (Duke and Notre Dame) and beat both convincingly.

Overall, the Cardinal faced five teams who finished 2011 with winning records and combined, their foes are 70-75 (or 48.28 percent) this season.

Stanford’s one loss came at home to then-No. 7 Oregon who is currently 10-2, ranked No. 9 and preparing to play in the conference championship against UCLA.  The loss to the Ducks was not narrow and the 23-point defeat was the worst among one-loss squads.

The voters prefer Stanford over Oklahoma State, which means if the Cowboys were to lose to the Sooners on Saturday night, then the Cardinal has a very realistic chance of leaping over OSU in the BCS rankings, but that leaves Alabama up ahead, which is a bigger problem.

Stanford’s best argument is that their loss came to a team that is probably still one of the best squads in the nation (Oregon) and the fact that they played a relatively respectable non-conference slate and that four opponents were ranked when they played them.

But, it doesn’t seem like that is enough firepower to overcome the fact that the 48.28 opponent winning percentage is the lowest among one-loss BCS teams and the fact that two of the ranked foes were lowly placed (No. 25 and No. 22) Washington and Notre Dame, who are now out.

It’s unfortunate that the loss to Oregon cost the Cardinal a shot at the Pac-12 title.  If they could have played for the crown, it would have dramatically strengthened their argument by virtue of both a conference title and an additional convincing win.

Oklahoma State

Current BCS Ranking: 3

Current Harris Poll Ranking: 5

Current USA Today Ranking: 5

Current BCS Computer Ranking: 3

The Cowboys are 10-1 as they prepare to host neighboring Oklahoma this Saturday night for the 2011 edition of Bedlam.

OSU has faced three ranked opponents thus far in 2011 (Texas A&M, Texas and Kansas State), two of whom are still in the Top 25 (Texas and KSU).  The clash with the No. 10 Sooners brings this amount to four.

The Cowboys faced one non-conference BCS team (Arizona) but since the Wildcats finished the season at 4-8, it is not really a point that strengthens OSU’s argument.

Oklahoma State has faced seven teams that still have a winning record in 2011 (a mark that is better than Alabama, Stanford and Virginia Tech) and combined the Cowboys foes are 70-58 (54.69 percent).

The Cowboys one loss came in double overtime to unranked Iowa State, and the only saving grace is that it was a road game.  The Cyclones are now 6-5 and still unranked.

Oklahoma State has gotten a lot of love from the computers, but it’s the human element that will decide whether they can leap frog over Alabama who doesn’t play again before the final rankings appear this Sunday.

It’s fairly obvious that the Cowboys need to wallop the Sooners and then campaign for the No. 2 spot and hope the voters do the rest…it’s definitely possible, but not probable based on the numbers.

As far as swaying the electorate, Oklahoma State’s best argument is the fact that they’ve played a solid set of opponents this season; they’ve played seven winning teams vs. four for Alabama, they’ve played one less ranked team but the winning percentage of opponent’s played is within tenths of a percentage of the Tide’s.

What kills the Cowboys' case is the fact that they lost to Iowa State which is hard to compare with an overtime loss to No. 1 LSU but (and this is a big but) if OSU can whip Oklahoma then they are the BIG 12 CHAMPIONS which Alabama can’t touch (again, they’re not even playing for the SEC crown).

To me it comes down to the Cowboys beating the Sooners (style points, yes, they’ll count) and then the voters deciding that the second-best team in the land should come with conference champion credentials.

It’s subjective for sure, but, that’s what the BCS is…it’s gymnastics, not baseball.

Alabama

Current BCS Ranking: 2

Current Harris Poll Ranking: 2

Current USA Today Ranking: 2

Current BCS Computer Ranking: 2

Like Stanford, Alabama has rested its on-field case and at 11-1 must sit back and see what transpires in the ballot box this weekend before they start preparing for January.

The Tide have played a whopping five ranked teams this season (Penn State, Arkansas, Florida, LSU and Auburn) with three of these squads still found in the Top 25 (all but Florida and Auburn).

Alabama faced Penn State as a non-conference BCS foe and convincingly defeated them on the road in Happy Valley.

Though Alabama’s set of 2011 opponents combine for a 72-59 record (54.96 percent) they have faced only four teams this season who still have a winning record (Penn State, Arkansas, LSU and Auburn).

The Tide’s single loss came to No. 1-ranked LSU who is now 12-0 and preparing to face Georgia in the SEC title game on Saturday.  The loss came at home by three points in overtime.

Alabama has a stronghold in each of the key BCS categories, and their lead in the human polls looks almost insurmountable.

The Tide’s case to the electorate to stay No. 2 without playing another game is based squarely on a schedule that included five ranked teams and a singular narrow defeat that came to a team that is still the very best squad in the country.

What detracts from Alabama’s argument is the fact that they played only four winning teams (which makes you wonder about the strength of the rest of the SEC) and the fact that not only did they not compete for a conference title …they didn’t even win their division (again, like Stanford).

There is currently no rule that the BCS championship must be played between conference champions and therefore the loss to LSU suddenly becomes an inherent advantage for Alabama over Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech, who are each strapped with a game to win the conference (though OSU isn’t playing in an extra title game).

It’s hard to argue Alabama, logically (not emotionally) out of the No. 2 spot unless the voters want a conference champion match-up rather than a computer-formula-driven title game.

The Bottom Line

Power ranking the five teams' arguments for the No. 2 spot is perilous at best, but if you consider all the factors, review all the numbers and include a consideration for conference title winners, here’s how I see the case’s ranking (assuming that all the teams who play this weekend win).

1. Oklahoma State: The negative effect of the loss to Iowa State is lessened by the decisive win over No. 10 Oklahoma, which is a higher ranked team that Alabama beat all season.  This combined with the Big 12 Championship narrowly gives the Cowboys the edge in the ballot box which is where this race will be won.

2. Alabama: The Tide’s argument falls just short with voters because they sit home on Saturday, they didn’t win their division or conference and they only played four teams with winning records.  The voting is so close that the governor of Florida is called in for the recount.

3. Stanford: Regardless of the fact they sat home and didn’t even win their division, Stanford far and away played a better set of foes than did Virginia Tech (despite the winning percentage, it’s about ranked opponents and non-conference games). 

4. Virginia Tech: The Hokies dismantle Clemson and win the ACC, but that still doesn’t help them with their low computer showing.  For Virginia Tech, it doesn’t really matter, because regardless of hopping over anybody, they are in the BCS Orange Bowl and hoping to improve the ACC’s 2-11 record in BCS play (it should help that they’ll probably face the Big East champ).

5. Boise State: Beating New Mexico does nothing for the Broncos and though they’ve had a good year, Houston beats them out for BCS party crasher status.